Seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in terms of macroseismic intensity using a site approach

We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in the framework of the EU project UPStrat-MAFA using the so-called site approach implemented in the SASHA computational code. This approach estimates seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by basically relying on local information about documented effects of past seismic events in the framework of a formally coherent and complete treatment of intensity data. In the case of Iceland, due to the lack of observed intensities for past earthquakes, local seismic histories were built using indirect macroseismic estimates deduced from epicentral information through an empirical attenuation relationship in probabilistic form. Seismic hazard was computed for four exceedance probabilities for an exposure time of 50 years, equivalent to average return periods of 50, 200, 475 and 975 years. For some localities, further return periods were examined and deaggregation analysis was performed. Results appear significantly different from previous seismic hazard maps, though just a semi-qualitative comparison is possible because of the different shaking measure considered (peak ground acceleration versus intensity), and the different computational methodology and input data used in these studies.     

Application of SASHA to seismic hazard assessment for Portugal mainland

In the frame of the UPStrat-MAFA “Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies Using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources” project, seismic hazard has been assessed in Portugal in terms of macroseismic intensity. Assessment has been performed by using a probabilistic approach based on the statistical analysis of local seismic histories (i.e., the record of seismic effects at each locality) performed by a new version of the SASHA code (D’Amico and Albarello in Res Lett 79(5):663–671, 2008) on purpose modified to account for this specific area of study. Local seismic histories are reconstructed by considering documented effects or indirect estimates deduced from epicentral information or numerical simulations. All these pieces of evidence are combined taking into account relevant uncertainty and statistical completeness of information locally available. Distribution of expected maximum intensity (i.e., the maximum intensity characterized by a fixed exceedance probability for a exposure time of 50 years) has been obtained and compared with the one deduced from alternative approaches.     

Seismic driven probabilistic classification of reservoir facies for static reservoir modelling: a case history in the Barents Sea

In this paper we present a case history of seismic reservoir characterization where we estimate the probability of facies from seismic data and simulate a set of reservoir models honouring seismically‐derived probabilistic information. In appraisal and development phases, seismic data have a key role in reservoir characterization and static reservoir modelling, as in most of the cases seismic data are the only information available far away from the wells. However seismic data do not provide any direct measurements of reservoir properties, which have then to be estimated as a solution of a joint inverse problem. For this reason, we show the application of a complete workflow for static reservoir modelling where seismic data are integrated to derive probability volumes of facies and reservoir properties to condition reservoir geostatistical simulations. The studied case is a clastic reservoir in the Barents Sea, where a complete data set of well logs from five wells and a set of partial‐stacked seismic data are available. The multi‐property workflow is based on seismic inversion, petrophysics and rock physics modelling. In particular, log‐facies are defined on the basis of sedimentological information, petrophysical properties and also their elastic response. The link between petrophysical and elastic attributes is preserved by introducing a rock‐physics model in the inversion methodology. Finally, the uncertainty in the reservoir model is represented by multiple geostatistical realizations. The main result of this workflow is a set of facies realizations and associated rock properties that honour, within a fixed tolerance, seismic and well log data and assess the uncertainty associated with reservoir modelling.     

Microbial mats implicated in the generation of intrastratal shrinkage (‘synaeresis’) cracks

Intrastratal shrinkage (often termed ‘synaeresis’) cracks are commonly employed as diagnostic environmental indicators for ancient salinity‐stressed, transitional fluvial‐marine or marginal‐marine depositional environments. Despite their abundance and use in facies interpretations, the mechanism of synaeresis crack formation remains controversial, and widely accepted explanations for their formation have hitherto been lacking. Sedimentological, ichnological, petrographic and geochemical study of shallow marine mudstone beds from the Ordovician Beach Formation of Bell Island, Newfoundland, has revealed that crack development (cf. synaeresis cracks) on the upper surface of mudstone beds is correlated with specific organic, geochemical and sedimentological parameters. Contorted, sinuous, sand‐filled cracks are common at contacts between unbioturbated mudstone and overlying sandstone beds. Cracks are absent in highly bioturbated mudstone, and are considered to pre‐date firmground assemblages of trace fossils that include Planolites and Trichophycus. The tops of cracked mudstone beds contain up to 2·1 wt% total organic carbon, relative to underlying mudstone beds that contain around 0·5 wt% total organic carbon. High‐resolution carbon isotope analyses reveal low δ¹³C_org values (?27·6‰) on bed tops compared with sandy intervals lacking cracks (?24·4 to ?24·9‰). Cracked mudstone facies show evidence for microbial matgrounds, including microbially induced sedimentary structures on bedding planes and carbonaceous laminae and tubular carbonaceous microfossils in thin section. Non‐cracked mudstone lacks evidence for development of microbial mats. Microbial mat development is proposed as an important prerequisite for intrastratal shrinkage crack formation. Both microbial mats and intrastratal shrinkage cracks have broad palaeoenvironmental distributions in the Precambrian and early Phanerozoic. In later Phanerozoic strata, matgrounds are restricted to depositional environments that are inhospitable to burrowing and surface‐grazing macrofauna. Unless evidence of synaeresis (i.e. contraction of clay mineral lattices in response to salinity change) can be independently demonstrated, the general term ‘intrastratal shrinkage crack’ is proposed to describe sinuous and tapering cracks in mudstone beds.     

Colluvial sedimentation in a hyperarid setting (Atacama Desert,northern Chile): Geomorphic controls and stratigraphic facies variability

Research on colluvial depositional systems has recently emphasized periglacial and high‐altitude settings, and the relations between Quaternary slope stratigraphy and climate change. This article examines the role of variable slope morphology, surface hydrology and microclimate in controlling colluvial sedimentation along a coastal tract of the hyperarid Atacama Desert in northern Chile. Direct accessibility of active surfaces is accompanied by uninterrupted stratigraphic exposures along the base of slopes, allowing direct comparisons between surface processes and the resulting sedimentary record. Four slope sectors are identified, based on differences in morphology and processes over active surfaces. Colluvial sedimentation is controlled by complex interactions of slope gradients and profiles, exposure to dominant winds, and potential runoff pathways, which vary considerably between different sectors. Major differences are evident between these hyperarid deposits and slope sedimentation in periglacial and temperate settings, including the complete absence of pedogenic activity and clay minerals; the volume of aeolian deposits and their role in controlling processes which redistribute sediment downslope, extending colluvial aprons; and the occurrence of runoff processes only where favoured by particular topographic configurations. Depositional surfaces range from steep talus cones, to debris‐flow‐dominated and aeolian‐dominated colluvial aprons, to an aeolian ramp subject to reworking by mass flows and flash floods. Consequently, facies associations and architectures at outcrop are highly variable and highlight the importance of spatial variations in slope morphology and processes in producing distinct, coeval colluvial stratigraphies within a single environmental context. Discrepancies between active processes and the corresponding stratigraphic signatures are also evident in some sectors; for example, preservation of alluvial and aeolian facies in stratigraphic sections does not always reflect the dominant processes over active slopes. Together with the spatial variability in processes and deposits along these slopes, this suggests that caution is required when extracting palaeoenvironmental information from analyses of colluvial successions.     

Post-Last Glacial Maximum evolution of a “fjord-type” lake based on high-resolution seismic data: the Lago Roca/Acigami (southern Tierra del Fuego,Argentina/Chile)

Lago Roca/Acigami is a “fjord-type” lake located in the southernmost part of South America, in the proximity of the Beagle Channel. A high-resolution seismic survey was carried out to analyse the seismic stratigraphy of the lake and to shed some light on the post-Last Glacial Maximum history of the area. Six seismic units were recognised, and their nature and depositional context were interpreted using seismic stratigraphy and acoustic facies analysis. A buried large ridge was identified within the glacial unit (SU1), interpreted as a frontal moraine that indicates a stabilisation phase. After retreat of the glacier from the basin, the trough was flooded by meltwater and a lake developed (SU2). The seismic facies, from bottom to top, depict a transition from ice-contact (SU2; SU3) to ice-distal proglacial conditions (SU4). A thick draping unit (SU5) marks a marine transgressive event and the instauration of a fjord environment in the basin. The marine transgression was a rapid event preceded by a fall in the lake level that caused an erosional unconformity. During the fjord phase the sedimentation remained controlled by meltwater discharge. Sea level fall, and subsequent disconnection from the Beagle Channel was accompanied by a progradation of the glaciofluvial deltaic sediments and the occurrence of several mass-wasting deposits (SU6). © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geostatistical Rock Physics Inversion for Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Porosity and Saturation in the Critical Zone

Mathematical Geosciences - Understanding the subsurface structure and function in the near-surface groundwater system, including fluid flow, geomechanical, and weathering processes, requires...     

Extent and magnitude of copper contamination in marinas of the San Diego region, California, USA

Marinas are areas of special water quality concern because of the potential for pollutant accumulation within their protected waters. Perhaps the largest contaminant source to marinas is antifouling paints that leach copper to prevent the growth of encrusting organisms on vessel bottoms. Very little monitoring of marinas is typically conducted despite the potential environmental risk, particularly in the San Diego region of California, USA where as many as 17,000 recreational vessels are berthed. The objective of this study was twofold: (1) determine the extent and magnitude of dissolved copper concentrations in marinas throughout the San Diego region, and (2) determine if elevated copper concentrations in marinas of the San Diego region are resulting in adverse biological impacts. A probabilistic study design was used to sample water column copper concentrations and toxicity (using Mytilus galloprovincialis) at 30 stations. Results indicated that exceedence of state water quality objectives was widespread (86% of marina area), but that toxicity was much less prevalent (21% of marina area). Toxicity identification evaluations (TIEs) conducted at the most toxic sites indicated that toxicity was largely due to trace metals, most likely copper. Toxicity was reduced using TIE treatments that chelated trace metals such as cation exchange column, ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA), and sodium thiosulfate (STS). Moreover, increasing dissolved copper concentrations correlated with increasing toxicity and these copper concentrations were high enough to account for virtually all of the observed toxicity.