Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran

The regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied successfully in diverse regions of the world to describe the occurrence of main shocks. In the current study, the model has been calibrated against the historical and instrumental catalog of Iranian earthquakes. The Iranian plateau is divided into 15 seismogenic provinces; then, the interevent times for strong main shocks have been determined for each one. The empirical relations reported by Papazachos et al. (Tectonophysics 271:295–323, 1997a) for the Alpine–Himalayan belt (including Iran) were adopted except for the constant terms that were calculated separately for every seismotectonic area. By using the calibrated equations developed for the study area and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities of occurrence P(?t) of the next main shocks during next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks (M _f) have been estimated. The immediate probability (within next 10 years) of a large main shock is estimated to be high and moderate (>35 %) in all regions except zones 9 (M _f = 5.8) and 15 (M _f = 6.1). However, it should be noted that the probabilities have been estimated for different M _f values in 15 regions. Comparing the model predictions with the actual earthquake occurrence rates shows the good performance of the model for Iranian plateau.     

Search for variable sources using data of “Cold” surveys

We search for variable sources, using the data of the surveys conducted on the RATAN-600 radio telescope in 1980–1994 at 3.94 GHz. To test the radio sources of the RCR (RATAN Cold Refined) catalog for variability, we estimated the long-term variability indices V of the studied objects, their relative variability amplitudes V _χ , and the χ ² probabilities p. Out of about two hundred considered sources, 41 proved to have positive long-term variability indices, suggesting that these sources may be variable. Fifteen objects can be considered to be reliably variable according to the χ ² criterion p > 0.98, three of these sources have χ ² probabilities p ≥ 0.999. The corresponding probabilities for six sources lie in the 0.95 < p < 0.98 interval, and those of the remaining 20 objects in the 0.73 ≤ p < 0.95 interval. Twenty four of 41 objects are variable or possibly variable in the optical range, and five objects are known variable radio sources. We construct the light curves and spectra for the sources with positive long-term variability indices.     

A mechanism for the production of planetary nebulae

C¹² stars in the range 1.04–1.55M are evolved to simulate the core evolution of the possible precursors of planetary nebulae. The nuclear shell burning in stars above 1.2M advances to within about 0.2M of the surface, where the intense radiation interacts with the surface matter and causes mass loss. Comparison between our theoretical results and observations suggests that this may be a mechanism by which planetary nebulae are formed.Presented at the Trieste Colloquium on Mass Loss from Stars, September 12–16, 1968.     

Multifractal modeling and spatial statistics

In general, the multifractal model provides more information about measurements on spatial objects than a fractal model. It also results in mathematical equations for the covariance function and semivariogram in spatial statistics which are determined primarily by the second-order mass exponent. However, these equations can be approximated by power-law relations which are comparable directly to equations based on fractal modeling. The multifractal approach is used to describe the underlying spatial structure of De Wijs 's example of zinc values from a sphalerite-bearing quartz vein near Pulacayo, Bolivia. It is shown that these data are multifractal instead of fractal, and that the second-order mass exponent (=0.979±0.011 for the example) can be used in spatial statistical analysis.     

Flow behind an attached shock wave in a radiating gas

A simple method is used to determine the curvature of an attached shock wave and the flow variable gradients behind the shock curve at the tip of a straight-edged wedge placed symmetrically in a supersonic flow of a radiating gas near the optically thin limit. The shock curvature and the flow variable gradients along the wedge at the tip are computed for a wide range of upstream flow Mach numbers and wedge angles. Several interesting results are noted; in particular, it is found that the effect of an increase in the upstream flow Mach number or the radiative flux is to enhance the shock wave curvature which, however, decreases with an increase in the specific heat ratio or the wedge angle.     

The relation between electric and redox potential: evidence from laboratory and field measurements

In field and laboratory experiments the relationship of redox, electric, and total potential was studied. This was carried out by using different arrangements of Pt and Ag/AgCl electrodes. The total potential is obtained by placing a Pt and an Ag/AgCl electrode at considerable distance apart on the rock. The studies indicate that the total potential yields the sum of redox and electric potential. Deviations larger than a couple of mV are caused by extensive fluid–rock interactions. In the laboratory it is seen that the magnitude of the electric potential is generally not larger than the artificially produced difference of the redox potential. The former is most likely attributed to a diffusion or membrane potential. At field scale the electric potential is designated as self potential. Redox potential measurements in the field may supply information from remnants of pore fluid of the rock and thereby may be suitable to support the exploration of concealed metal deposits. Detectable are in particular the fast H⁺ ions which are released by electrochemical reactions and transported by electromigration, both of which are attributed to the presence of the so called geobattery.     

Changes in European precipitation seasonality and in drought frequencies revealed by a four-century-long tree-ring isotopic record from Brittany, western France

A new paleoclimatic reconstruction for western France is obtained from tree-ring cellulose stable isotopes. Living trees from Rennes Forest and beams from two ancient buildings in Rennes city have been combined to cover the past four centuries with a gap from 1730 to 1750. The cellulose ¹³C reflects the progressive changes in atmospheric CO₂ isotopic composition. The combined ¹³C and ¹⁸O measurements are used to propose a reconstruction of interannual fluctuations in local summer temperature and water stress. At the decadal time scale, the reconstructed water stress profile exhibits a significant similarity with the historical wine harvest dates, an indicator of warm and dry growth seasons, as well as with the summer central England and central Alps instrumental temperature records and climate model results. Combined with instrumental precipitation records from Paris, these reconstructions suggest a dramatic and widespread change in the seasonality of the precipitation at the beginning of the nineteenth century, with drier winters and wetter summers, which may have contributed to the Alpine glacier decline at the end of the Little Ice Age. The tree-ring isotope records also show a relationship with large-scale North Atlantic circulation changes and the interannual variability is modified between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries (7–8 year periodicities) and the seventeenth century (11–14 year periodicities). By classifying 20-year-long subsets of the reconstructed climatic parameters, we estimate that a decadal mean summer warming of 0.8±0.1°C induced extreme dry years to be 2.2±0.7 times more frequent.     

Isolation and Characterization of Collagen from Squid(Ommastrephes bartrami) Skin

Collagen of squid(Ommastrephes bartrami) skin was examined in the present study. Histology showed that collagen fiber in the skin was partially cross-linked with muscle fiber. Acid-solubilized collagen(ASC) and pepsin-solubilized collagen(PSC) were extracted from the skin and characterized. The results of amino acid composition and electrophoretic patterns revealed that ASC and PSC were both type Ⅰ collagen,containing α1 and α2 chains. FTIR(fourier transform infrared spectroscopy) investigations confirmed t...     

SUBURBANIZATION IN THE CLEVELAND SMSA, 1950–1970

Suburban growth is a complex process attributable partly to decentralization and partly to deconcentration. Data on source of migrants and population density are used to operationalize these concepts in an empirical study of the Cleveland, Ohio SMSA for the period 1950 to 1970. Statistical analysis of census tract data for the suburban ring reveals a piling up of densities at the inner edge and suggests a complex pattern with respect to sources of the migrants contributing to suburban growth.