Network analysis to inform invasive species spread among lakes

Often facilitated by human-mediated pathways,aquatic invasive species are a threat to the health and biodiversity of global ecosystems.We present a novel approach incorporating survey data of watercraft movement in a social network analysis to reconstruct potential pathways of aquatic invasive species spread between lakes.As an example,we use the green alga Nitellopsis obtusa,also known as starry stonewort,an aquatic invasive species affecting the Great Lakes region in the United States and Canada.The movement of algal fragments via human-mediated pathways(i.e.,watercraft)has been hypothesized as the primary driver of starry stonewort invasion.We used survey data collected at boat ramps during the 2013 and 2014 openwater seasons to describe the flow of watercraft from Lake Koronis,where N.obtusa was first detected in Minnesota,to other lakes in the state.Our results suggest that the risk of N.obtusa expansion is not highly constrained by geographic proximity and management efforts should consider highly connected lakes.Estimating human movement via network analysis may help to explain past and future routes of aquatic invasive species infestation between lakes and can improve evidence-based prevention and control efforts.     

Spatially explicit models for exploring COVID‐19 lockdown strategies

This article describes two spatially explicit models created to allow experimentation with different societal responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic. We outline the work to date on modeling spatially explicit infective diseases and show that there are gaps that remain important to fill. We demonstrate how geographical regions, rather than a single, national approach, are likely to lead to better outcomes for the population. We provide a full account of how our models function, and how they can be used to explore many different aspects of contagion, including: experimenting with different lockdown measures, with connectivity between places, with the tracing of disease clusters, and the use of improved contact tracing and isolation. We provide comprehensive results showing the use of these models in given scenarios, and conclude that explicitly regionalized models for mitigation provide significant advantages over a “one‐size‐fits‐all” approach. We have made our models, and their data, publicly available for others to use in their own locales, with the hope of providing the tools needed for geographers to have a voice during this difficult time.     

A probabilistic framework for improving reverse geocoding output

Reverse geocoding, which transforms machine‐readable GPS coordinates into human‐readable location information, is widely used in a variety of location‐based services and analysis. The output quality of reverse geocoding is critical because it can greatly impact these services provided to end‐users. We argue that the output of reverse geocoding should be spatially close to and topologically correct with respect to the input coordinates, contain multiple suggestions ranked by a uniform standard, and incorporate GPS uncertainties. However, existing reverse geocoding systems often fail to fulfill these aims. To further improve the reverse geocoding process, we propose a probabilistic framework that includes: (1) a new workflow that can adapt all existing address models and unitizes distance and topology relations among retrieved reference data for candidate selections; (2) an advanced scoring mechanism that quantifies characteristics of the entire workflow and orders candidates according to their likelihood of being the best candidate; and (3) a novel algorithm that derives statistical surfaces for input GPS uncertainties and propagates such uncertainties into final output lists. The efficiency of the proposed approaches is demonstrated through comparisons to the four commercial reverse geocoding systems and through human judgments. We envision that more advanced reverse geocoding output ranking algorithms specific to different application scenarios can be built upon this work.     

Time distributions in satellite constellation design

The aim of the time distribution methodology presented in this paper is to generate constellations whose satellites share a set of relative trajectories in a given time, and maintain that property over time without orbit corrections. The model takes into account a series of orbital perturbations such as the gravitational potential of the Earth, the atmospheric drag, the Sun and the Moon as disturbing third bodies and the solar radiation pressure. These perturbations are included in the design process of the constellation. Moreover, the whole methodology allows to design constellations with multiple relative trajectories that can be distributed in a minimum number of inertial orbits.     

Specifying a joint space- and time-lag using a bivariate Poisson distribution

Separate space- or time-lags have been considered regularly in data analyses; as space–time models are more recently being studied extensively in data analytic fashion, joint estimation of both lags has to be considered explicitly. This paper addresses this issue, taking into special consideration parametric parsimony together with specification richness; use of the bivariate Poisson frequency distribution is advocated and applied to an empirical case. The relation of this approach to random effects specifications is investigated. Data for Belgian regional products constitute the empirical case study.

Aegean Sea ridge barrier-and-basin sedimentation patterns

An isopach map of the Aegean Sea, based on a regionally comprehensive seismic-profile network, reveals the highly irregular distribution of unconsolidated sediments of post-Miocene age. Geologically recent structural activity has considerably modified the seafloor configuration of the north and south Aegean, and depositional patterns are to varying degree related to the complex Aegean physiography. From north to south, a series of ridges, islands, and plateaus have acted as effective barriers behind which sediments are trapped, primarily in depressions. Sources of sediment in the north Aegean troughs and basins include rivers and suspensate-rich water masses; material was also provided by the erosion of plateaus and ridges during phases of Pliocene uplift and regressions and Quaternary eustatic low sea-level stands when the Aegean became virtually land-locked and isolated from the Black Sea. Volcanic as well as terrigenous material has accumulated in the central and south Aegean. However, the rapid depositional rates in the south Aegean are more closely related to the flow exchange with the Levantine Basin and the consequent ponding of material behind the Peloponnesus-Crete and Crete-Rhodes ridges.     

The application of remote sensing to environmental archaeology

An area in the Fenlands of Eastern England was used to assess the spectral, spatial, and seasonal requirements of airborne multispectral data for identifying wetland archaeological features by detecting crop and soil marks. Ordination of data from a scanner with 11 spectral channels was achieved using the Sheffield method, which calculates the wavebands that produce a 3 band composite image with optimum contrast using band variances and interband correlations. the spatial detail requirements for multispectral data were investigated by applying an edge enhancing filter to single waveband images. the loss of feature clarity with increased levels of spatial smoothing is visually apparent. Seasonal variation in crop mark visibility was quantified by cross tabulating feature visibility in fields known to contain features with time period and sensor type. If remote sensing is to be used for repeated operational archaeological survey then the quality and quantity of information which can be gained from the data must be evaluated. This study attempts to define some of the necessary operational requirements for the use of multispectral data for archaeology.     

An Integrated Mapping Approach to Petroleum Exploration on the Pratt Anticline,Pratt County,Kansas

A quantitative map comparison/integration technique to aid in petroleum exploration was applied to an area in south-central Kansas. The visual comparison and integration of maps has become increasingly difficult with the large number and different types of maps necessary to interpret the geology and assess the petroleum potential of an area; therefore, it is desirable to quantify these relationships. The algebraic algorithm used in this application is based on a point-by-point comparison of any number and type of spatial data represented in map form. Ten geological and geophysical maps were compared and integrated, utilizing data from 900 wells located in a nine-township area on the Pratt Anticline in Pratt County, Kansas. Five structure maps, including top of the Lansing Group (Pennsylvanian), Mississippian chert, Mississippian limestone, Viola Limestone (Ordovician), and Arbuckle Group (Cambro-Ordovician), two isopachous maps from top of Mississippian chert to Viola and Lansing to Arbuckle, a Mississippian chert porosity map, Bouguer gravity map, and an aeromagnetic map were processed and interpreted. Before processing, each map was standardized and assigned a relative degree of importance, depending on knowledge of the geology of the area. Once a combination of weights was obtained that most closely resembled the pattern of proved oil fields (target map), a favorability map was constructed based on a coincidence of similarity values and of geological properties of petroleum reservoirs. The resulting favorability maps for the study area indicate location of likely Mississippian chert and lower Paleozoic production.     

Sediment routing in the Zagros foreland basin: Drainage reorganization and a shift from axial to transverse sediment dispersal in the Kurdistan region of Iraq

In the northwestern sector of the Zagros foreland basin, axial fluvial systems initially delivered fine-grained sediments from northwestern source regions into a contiguous basin, and later transverse fluvial systems delivered coarse-grained sediments from northeastern sources into a structurally partitioned basin by fold-thrust deformation. Here we integrate sedimentologic, stratigraphic, palaeomagnetic and geochronologic data from the northwestern Zagros foreland basin to define the Neogene history of deposition and sediment routing in response to progressive advance of the Zagros fold-thrust belt. This study constrains the depositional environments, timing of deposition and provenance of nonmarine clastic deposits of the Injana (Upper Fars), Mukdadiya (Lower Bakhtiari) and Bai-Hasan (Upper Bakhtiari) Formations in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Sediments of the Injana Formation (~12.4–7.75 Ma) were transported axially (orogen-parallel) from northwest to southeast by meandering and low-sinuosity channel belt system. In contrast, during deposition of the Mukdadiya Formation (~7.75–5 Ma), sediments were delivered transversely (orogen-perpendicular) from northeast to southwest by braided and low-sinuosity channel belt system in distributive fluvial megafans. By ~5 Ma, the northwestern Zagros foreland basin became partitioned by growth of the Mountain Front Flexure and considerable gravel was introduced in localized alluvial fans derived from growing topographic highs. Foredeep accumulation rates during deposition of the Injana, Mukdadiya and Bai-Hasan Formations averaged 350, 400 and 600 m/Myr respectively, suggesting accelerated accommodation generation in a rapidly subsiding basin governed by flexural subsidence. Detrital zircon U-Pb age spectra show that in addition to sources of Mesozoic-Cenozoic cover strata, the Injana Formation was derived chiefly from Palaeozoic-Precambrian (including Carboniferous and latest Neoproterozoic) strata in an axial position to the northwest, likely from the Bitlis-Puturge Massif and broader Eastern Anatolia. In contrast, the Mukdadiya and Bai-Hasan Formations yield distinctive Palaeogene U-Pb age peaks, particularly in the southeastern sector of the study region, consistent with transverse delivery from the arc-related terranes of the Walash and Naopurdan volcano-sedimentary groups (Gaveh-Rud domain?) and Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic arc to the northeast. These temporal and spatial variations in stratigraphic framework, depositional environments, sediment routing and compositional provenance reveal a major drainage reorganization during Neogene shortening in the Zagros fold-thrust belt. Whereas axial fluvial systems initially dominated the foreland basin during early orogenesis in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, transverse fluvial systems were subsequently established and delivered major sediment volumes to the foreland as a consequence of the abrupt deformation advance and associated topographic growth in the Zagros.