The OSIRIS‐REx target asteroid (101955) Bennu: Constraints on its physical,geological, and dynamical nature from astronomical observations

We review the results of an extensive campaign to determine the physical, geological, and dynamical properties of asteroid (101955) Bennu. This investigation provides information on the orbit, shape, mass, rotation state, radar response, photometric, spectroscopic, thermal, regolith, and environmental properties of Bennu. We combine these data with cosmochemical and dynamical models to develop a hypothetical timeline for Bennu's formation and evolution. We infer that Bennu is an ancient object that has witnessed over 4.5 Gyr of solar system history. Its chemistry and mineralogy were established within the first 10 Myr of the solar system. It likely originated as a discrete asteroid in the inner Main Belt approximately 0.7–2 Gyr ago as a fragment from the catastrophic disruption of a large (approximately 100‐km), carbonaceous asteroid. It was delivered to near‐Earth space via a combination of Yarkovsky‐induced drift and interaction with giant‐planet resonances. During its journey, YORP processes and planetary close encounters modified Bennu's spin state, potentially reshaping and resurfacing the asteroid. We also review work on Bennu's future dynamical evolution and constrain its ultimate fate. It is one of the most Potentially Hazardous Asteroids with an approximately 1‐in‐2700 chance of impacting the Earth in the late 22nd century. It will most likely end its dynamical life by falling into the Sun. The highest probability for a planetary impact is with Venus, followed by the Earth. There is a chance that Bennu will be ejected from the inner solar system after a close encounter with Jupiter. OSIRIS‐REx will return samples from the surface of this intriguing asteroid in September 2023.     

Late Holocene lake level dynamics inferred from magnetic susceptibility and stable oxygen isotope data: Lake Elsinore, southern California (USA)

Southern California faces an imminent freshwater shortage. To better assess the future impact of this water crisis, it is essential that we develop continental archives of past hydrological variability. Using four sediment cores from Lake Elsinore in Southern California, we reconstruct late Holocene (3800 calendar years B.P.) hydrological change using a twentieth-century calibrated, proxy methodology. We compared magnetic susceptibility from Lake Elsinore deep basin sediments, lake level from Lake Elsinore, and regional winter precipitation data over the twentieth century to calibrate the late Holocene lake sediment record. The comparison revealed a strong positive, first-order relationship between the three variables. As a working hypothesis, we suggest that periods of greater precipitation produce higher lake levels. Greater precipitation also increases the supply of detritus (i.e., magnetic-rich minerals) from the lake's surrounding drainage basin into the lake environment. As a result, magnetic susceptibility values increase during periods of high lake level. We apply this modern calibration to late Holocene sediments from the lake's littoral zone. As an independent verification of this hypothesis, we analyzed ¹⁸O_(calcite), interpreted as a proxy for variations in the precipitation:evaporation ratio, which reflect first order hydrological variability. The results of this verification support our hypothesis that magnetic susceptibility records regional hydrological change as related to precipitation and lake level. Using both proxy data, we analyzed the past 3800 calendar years of hydrological variability. Our analyses indicate a long period of dry, less variable climate between 3800 and 2000 calendar years B.P. followed by a wet, more variable climate to the present. These results suggest that droughts of greater magnitude and duration than those observed in the modern record have occurred in the recent geological past. This conclusion presents insight to the potential impact of future droughts on the over-populated, water-poor region of Southern California.     

Effect of snow cover on pan-Arctic permafrost thermal regimes

This study quantitatively evaluated how insulation by snow depth (SND) affected the soil thermal regime and permafrost degradation in the pan-Arctic area, and more generally defined the characteristics of soil temperature (T_SOIL) and SND from 1901 to 2009. This was achieved through experiments performed with the land surface model CHANGE to assess sensitivity to winter precipitation as well as air temperature. Simulated T_SOIL, active layer thickness (ALT), SND, and snow density were generally comparable with in situ or satellite observations at large scales and over long periods. Northernmost regions had snow that remained relatively stable and in a thicker state during the past four decades, generating greater increases in T_SOIL. Changes in snow cover have led to changes in the thermal state of the underlying soil, which is strongly dependent on both the magnitude and the timing of changes in snowfall. Simulations of the period 2001–2009 revealed significant differences in the extent of near-surface permafrost, reflecting differences in the model’s treatment of meteorology and the soil bottom boundary. Permafrost loss was greater when SND increased in autumn rather than in winter, due to insulation of the soil resulting from early cooling. Simulations revealed that T_SOIL tended to increase over most of the pan-Arctic from 1901 to 2009, and that this increase was significant in northern regions, especially in northeastern Siberia where SND is responsible for 50 % or more of the changes in T_SOIL at a depth of 3.6 m. In the same region, ALT also increased at a rate of approximately 2.3 cm per decade. The most sensitive response of ALT to changes in SND appeared in the southern boundary regions of permafrost, in contrast to permafrost temperatures within the 60°N–80°N region, which were more sensitive to changes in snow cover. Finally, our model suggests that snow cover contributes to the warming of permafrost in northern regions and could play a more important role under conditions of future Arctic warming.     

Enhancement of aquifer vulnerability indexing using the analytic-element method

Indexing methods are used for the evaluation of aquifer vulnerability and establishing guidelines for the protection of ground-water resources. The principle of the indexing method is to rank influences on groundwater to determine overall vulnerability of an aquifer to contamination. The analytic element method (AEM) of ground-water flow modeling is used to enhance indexing methods by rapidly calculating a potentiometric surface based primarily on surface-water features. This potentiometric map is combined with a digital-elevation model to produce a map of water-table depth. This is an improvement over simple water-table interpolation methods. It is physically based, properly representing surface-water features, hydraulic boundaries, and changes in hydraulic conductivity. The AEM software, SPLIT, is used to improve an aquifer vulnerability assessment for a valley-fill aquifer in western New York State. A GIS-based graphical user interface allows automated conversion of hydrography vector data into analytic elements.     

Sediment routing in the Zagros foreland basin: Drainage reorganization and a shift from axial to transverse sediment dispersal in the Kurdistan region of Iraq

In the northwestern sector of the Zagros foreland basin, axial fluvial systems initially delivered fine-grained sediments from northwestern source regions into a contiguous basin, and later transverse fluvial systems delivered coarse-grained sediments from northeastern sources into a structurally partitioned basin by fold-thrust deformation. Here we integrate sedimentologic, stratigraphic, palaeomagnetic and geochronologic data from the northwestern Zagros foreland basin to define the Neogene history of deposition and sediment routing in response to progressive advance of the Zagros fold-thrust belt. This study constrains the depositional environments, timing of deposition and provenance of nonmarine clastic deposits of the Injana (Upper Fars), Mukdadiya (Lower Bakhtiari) and Bai-Hasan (Upper Bakhtiari) Formations in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Sediments of the Injana Formation (~12.4–7.75 Ma) were transported axially (orogen-parallel) from northwest to southeast by meandering and low-sinuosity channel belt system. In contrast, during deposition of the Mukdadiya Formation (~7.75–5 Ma), sediments were delivered transversely (orogen-perpendicular) from northeast to southwest by braided and low-sinuosity channel belt system in distributive fluvial megafans. By ~5 Ma, the northwestern Zagros foreland basin became partitioned by growth of the Mountain Front Flexure and considerable gravel was introduced in localized alluvial fans derived from growing topographic highs. Foredeep accumulation rates during deposition of the Injana, Mukdadiya and Bai-Hasan Formations averaged 350, 400 and 600 m/Myr respectively, suggesting accelerated accommodation generation in a rapidly subsiding basin governed by flexural subsidence. Detrital zircon U-Pb age spectra show that in addition to sources of Mesozoic-Cenozoic cover strata, the Injana Formation was derived chiefly from Palaeozoic-Precambrian (including Carboniferous and latest Neoproterozoic) strata in an axial position to the northwest, likely from the Bitlis-Puturge Massif and broader Eastern Anatolia. In contrast, the Mukdadiya and Bai-Hasan Formations yield distinctive Palaeogene U-Pb age peaks, particularly in the southeastern sector of the study region, consistent with transverse delivery from the arc-related terranes of the Walash and Naopurdan volcano-sedimentary groups (Gaveh-Rud domain?) and Urumieh-Dokhtar magmatic arc to the northeast. These temporal and spatial variations in stratigraphic framework, depositional environments, sediment routing and compositional provenance reveal a major drainage reorganization during Neogene shortening in the Zagros fold-thrust belt. Whereas axial fluvial systems initially dominated the foreland basin during early orogenesis in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, transverse fluvial systems were subsequently established and delivered major sediment volumes to the foreland as a consequence of the abrupt deformation advance and associated topographic growth in the Zagros.     

The distribution of carbon monoxide in the lower atmosphere of Venus

We have obtained spatially resolved near-infrared spectroscopy of the Venus nightside on 15 nights over three observing seasons. We use the depth of the CO absorption band at 2.3 μm to map the two-dimensional distribution of CO across both hemispheres. Radiative transfer models are used to relate the measured CO band depth to the volume mixing ratio of CO. The results confirm previous investigations in showing a general trend of increased CO abundances at around 60° latitude north and south as compared with the equatorial regions. Observations taken over a few nights generally show very similar CO distributions, but significant changes are apparent over longer periods. In past studies it has been assumed that the CO latitudinal variation occurs near 35 km altitude, at which K-band sensitivity to CO is greatest. By modeling the detailed spectrum of the excess CO at high latitudes we show that it occurs at altitudes around 45 km, much higher than has previously been assumed, and that there cannot be significant contribution from levels of 36 km or lower. We suggest that this is most likely due to downwelling of CO-rich gas from the upper atmosphere at these latitudes, with the CO being removed by around 40 km through chemical processes such as the reaction with SO₃.     

Multi-proxy paleolimnological assessment of biogeochemical versus food web controls on the trophic states of two shallow,mesotrophic lakes

The frequency of nuisance algal blooms has been increasing during the last two decades in the shallow, headwater East Pond (Smithfield, Maine, USA). Meanwhile, the hydrologically linked North Pond has not experienced an increase in algal blooms, despite similar morphometry and higher external nutrient loads. Possible explanations for this difference include stronger trophic cascade effects from planktivorous white perch (Morone americana) in East Pond as well as differences in phosphorus (P) release from the sediments of these two lakes. We conducted a paleolimnological investigation of these two lakes to assess whether sedimentary evidence supported trophic cascade effects based on cladoceran ephippia size, diatom fossils, and fossil pigments or biogeochemical controls based on potential sedimentary P release as the primary driver of these increased algal blooms in East Pond. At the time of white perch introduction (~1930–1950), ephippia size increases in East Pond, although no changes are observed in either diatom abundance or trends in the algal pigments. Instead, algal pigments increase in recent decades (~1980 to present) along with an increase in diatom taxa with higher TP optima These results suggest that predation by white perch is not resulting in top-down effects on algal abundance in East Pond, as predicted by the trophic cascade hypothesis. While the P content of sediments from both lakes is relatively equal, the releasable P in the top 10 cm of sediment in East Pond constitutes a greater percentage of the P extracted. Also, North Pond sediments exhibit a greater capacity to permanently bury P via the mechanisms of sorption to Al(OH)_3(s) and a slower mineralization of organic P compounds. The results of this investigation suggest that the ultimate driver of the recent algal blooms in East Pond is internal P release from the sediments instead of trophic cascade effects.     

The characteristics of rain electricity in Nigeria. I — Magnitudes and variations

The characteristics of rain and point charges based on routine measurements extending over four rainy seasons are presented. An average rain current density of (1.0±0.1)×10^–10 A m^–2 and charge per unit volume of rain water of (0.43±0.02)×10^–4 C m^–3 for the locality are obtained, which are compared with data obtained elsewhere by other workers. The point-discharge current measurements lead to a revised estimate of (0.86±0.08)×10^–9 A m^–2 for the average point discharge current below storm clouds.     

Vertical circulation in the tropical atmosphere during extreme El Niño-Southern Oscillation events

Scenarios for the development of large-scale vertical circulation anomalies during warm and cold phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation are generalized based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 1958-1998. Composite models of the cells of vertical circulation in the monsoon and trade-wind regions of the tropical Pacific are obtained for the first time for El Niño and La Niña separately. An unprecedented shift of the ascending branch of the zonal Walker circulation from the “maritime continent” of Indonesia to the east, to the central and eastern Pacific, was observed during the warm phase over the tropical Pacific; this shift was accompanied by an abrupt increase in the tropical cyclogenesis activity in the southern Pacific zone of convergence. On the contrary, during the cold phase, the ascending motions in the region of the summer Australian monsoon are subject to abrupt intensification. The reconstruction of the vertical meridional circulation during the warm phase manifested itself in the almost complete disappearance of the Hadley classic circulation over the central Pacific, characteristic of the trade-wind intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), and in its replacement by the latitudinal monsoon circulation typical of the ITCZ over the Indian Ocean. During a cold phase, the Hadley circulation is both restored and intensified.     

Deterministic sensitivity analysis for a model for flow in porous media

A deterministic method for sensitivity analysis is developed and applied to a mathematical model for the simulation of flow in porous media. The method is based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the Jacobian matrix of the model. It is a local approach to sensitivity analysis providing a hierarchical classification of the directions in both the input space and of those in the output space reflecting the degree of sensitiveness of the latter to the former. Its low computational cost, in comparison with that of statistical approaches, allows the study of the variability of the results of the sensitivity analysis due to the variations of the input parameters of the model, and thus it can provide a quality criterion for the validity of more classical probabilistic global approaches. For the example treated here, however, this variability is weak, and deterministic and statistical methods yield similar sensitivity results.