The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Numerical simulation of the interaction between two high-energy plasma bunches in the ionosphere

The 3D MHD algorithm developed by us has been adapted to modeling the interaction between two plasma bunches in the ionosphere, mainly in order to sufficiently correctly describe the physics of the interaction between two plasma regions with regard to the ionospheric inhomogeneity and the geomagnetic field action. Modeling has been performed for several versions of location of the plasma region centers.     

A cyclicity in the early brigantian (D2) limestones east of the clwydian range,north wales and its use in correlation

For the first time, minor cyclicity is described from some limestones in the lower part of the Brigantian (D2) succession of the Mold district North Wales which can be traced throughout the area enabling a detailed correlation to be established. The minor cyclicity may have been caused by eustatic sea-level fluctuations. Periods of emergence associated with each regressive phase are demonstrated by the presence of subaerial features and terrestrial deposits. The lateral persistence of the cycles is confirmed by comparison with established faunal and lithological horizons. Correlation with other cyclic Brigantian strata in Yorkshire, Derbyshire and Bristol is briefly discussed. The Asbian/Brigantian (D1/D2) boundary in North Wales is described and distinctive faunal and lithological changes similar to those in the area of the stratotype in north England have been recorded.     

Bildung bromhaltiger Desinfektionsnebenprodukte nach Chlorung von Bodenseewasser in Abhängigkeit von Aufbereitungsschritten und der Bromidkonzentration

Formation of Brominated Disinfection By-products after Chlorination of Water from Lake Constance Depending on Treatment Steps and Bromide Concentration The formation of halogenated disinfection by-products (DNP) (trihalomethanes (THM), haloacetic acids (HES), haloacetonitriles (HAN), haloketones (HKE) and chloropicrin (TCNM)) was studied after chlorination (0.5 mg/L) of raw water and drinking water from Lake Constance. The objectives of this study were to investigate the effect of bromide ion on the distribution of DNP-species resulting from chlorination and to draw up a bromide mass-balance. The treatment of water from Lake Constance with ozone decreased the formation of DNP about 35% and of total organic halogens (AOX) about 45%. This decline in DNP-formation is mainly due to the formation of chloroform, dichloro- and trichloroacetic acid. Though there is only a small amount of bromide (6.2 μg/L) in water from Lake Constance, about 32% of THM, 16% of HES, and 30% of HAN contained bromine after chlorination of treated water. The addition of bromide ion (up to 1 mg/L) shifted the DNP-composition to more brominated species. The distribution of the DNP-species depends on the initial molar bromide-to-chlorine ratio. A mathematic model showed the same pattern of DNP-species depending on the initial molar bromide-to-chlorine ratio that was observed experimentally in microstrained raw water and drinking water from Lake Constance. After chlorination of microstrained raw water, 27% of the bromide were incorporated in known DNP, 34% in unknown substances, and about 39% of bromide were not converted to organic bromine. After chlorination of treated water, only 16% of the bromide were incorporated in unknown substances, whereas 34% were found in known DNP. About 50% were found as bromide again. After addition of bromide (up to 25 μg/L) to ozonated and treated water from Lake Constance, between 60 and 72% of the bromide that had reacted after chlorination were found in analyzed low-molecular DNP.     

Luminescence chronology of river adjustment and incision of Quaternary sediments in the alluvial plain of the Sabarmati River, north Gujarat, India

River adjustment and incision in the Sabarmati basin, Gujarat, India have been examined at a site near Mahudi. Towards this, the morphostratigraphy and depositional chronometry of the middle alluvial plains were investigated. The upper fluvial sequence, along with the overlying aeolian sand and riverbed scroll plains, provide clues to the evolution of the present Sabarmati River. Sedimentological analyses of the upper fluvial sequence indicate its deposition by a meandering river system during what is believed to be a persistent wetter phase. Luminescence chronology bracketed this sequence to between 54 and 30 ka, which corresponds to Oxygen Isotope Stage-3, during which the SW monsoon was enhanced. The overlying aeolian sand has been dated to 12 ka, indicating that dune accretion occurred simultaneously with the strengthening of the SW monsoon during the Early Holocene. Adjustment of the Sabarmati along a N–S transect is placed around 12 ka and the incision is bracketed between 12 and 4.5 ka. River adjustment could have been tectonic; however, the incision was facilitated by the availability of continuous flow in the river caused by the SW monsoon. The basin experienced two tectonic events at about 3 and 0.3 ka, as demonstrated by the morphology of the scroll plains.     

Archaeal Communities of Frozen Quaternary Sediments of Marine Origin on the Coast of Western Spitsbergen

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The archaeal composition of permafrost samples taken during the drilling of frozen marine sediments in the area of the Barentsburg coal mine on the east...     

Influence of wind upon water quality in Liverpool Bay

Comprehensive distribution patterns of physical and chemical characteristics have been obtained from a series of cruises in Liverpool Bay. The marked feature of these distributions was their temporal variability, suggesting that the surface residual circulation is also temporally variable. The influence of wind stress upon the circulation pattern and hence water quality of this sea area is illustrated.     

A regional model for studies of atmosphere-ice-ocean interaction in the western Arctic

Summary Asa step in the development of a fully coupled regional model of the atmosphere-ice-ocean system, atmospheric and sea ice models have been adapted to a western Arctic domain centered on the Bering Strait. Lateral boundary conditions derived from operational analyses drive the models through simulations on grids having horizontal resolutions of 21 km and 7 km. Sensitivities to the presence of sea ice are large after only 48 hours, by which time the surface temperatures in the Bering and Chukchi Seas are 10–15°C higher without sea ice than with sea ice. The temperatures, in turn, modify the fields of sea level pressure, surface wind and precipitation. By influencing the surface wind stress through the static static stability, the surface state feeds back to the surface momentum exchange, ice/ocean transport, and the rate of formation of new ice. The results also show a resolution-dependence of the surface winds, precipitation rates and new ice formation rates, particularly in areas in which the coastal configuration and topography are spatially complex. The experiments will be augmented by the implementation of an ocean model on the same grids.With 12 Figures     

Rock salt mass in the Paleoproterozoic sequence of the Onega trough in Karelia (from the Onega parametric well data)

A thick (200 m) rock salt mass covering Late Archean granitoids was exposed for the first time in the Early Proterozoic volcanogenic-sedimentary formations in the Onega trough of the east Baltic Shield by the Onega parametric well. The mineral composition of salts, their geochemical features, and the isotopic composition of carbonate carbon and oxygen have been studied. After fluid inclusions present in salts, their metamorphism temperature and isotopic composition of helium and argon were determined. The obtained results give evidence of the fact that rock salts and magnesites associated with them were formed in an evaporate basin with participation of deep crustal processes. The age of the underlying granitoids (2.716 ± 9 Ma) is determined using the Pb—Pb method.     

Developing a modern pollen–climate calibration data set for Norway

Bjune, A. E., Birks, H. J. B., Peglar, S. M. & Odland, A. 2010: Developing a modern pollen–climate calibration data set for Norway. Boreas, Vol. 39, pp. 674–688. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00158.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. Modern pollen–climate data sets consisting of modern pollen assemblages and modern climate data (mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation) have been developed for Norway based on 191 lakes and 321 lakes. The original 191‐lake data set was designed to optimize the distribution of the lakes sampled along the mean July temperature gradient, thereby fulfilling one of the most critical assumptions of weighted‐averaging regression and calibration and its relative, weighted‐averaging partial least‐squares regression. A further 130 surface samples of comparable taphonomy, taxonomic detail and analyst became available as a result of other projects. These 130 samples, all from new lakes, were added to the 191‐lake data set to create the 321‐lake data set. The collection and construction of these data sets are outlined. Numerical analyses involving generalized linear modelling, constrained ordination techniques, weighted‐averaging partial least‐squares regression, and two different cross‐validation procedures are used to asses the effects of increasing the size of the calibration data set from 191 to 321 lakes. The two data sets are used to reconstruct mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation for a Holocene site in northwest Norway and a Lateglacial site in west‐central Norway. Overall, little is to be gained by increasing the modern data set beyond about 200 lakes in terms of modern model performance statistics, but the down‐core reconstructions show less between‐sample variability and are thus potentially more plausible and realistic when based on the 321‐lake data set.