Observation of azimuthal anisotropy from the seismic reflectivity of a Tertiary turbidite sand

P‐wave data from a time‐lapse 3D OBC survey have been analysed to estimate and interpret azimuthal seismic anisotropy. This is achieved by careful processing to preserve the azimuthal signature. The survey images a major reservoir body in a channelized turbidite field in the Gulf of Mexico. Three distinct and significant anisotropy anomalies are discovered on or around this particular ‘4500‐ft sand’, all of which change intensity but not orientation with hydrocarbon production. These anomalies are distributed along the highest concentration of cumulative sand thickness, with their symmetry axes aligned with the main channel axis. We suspect that this time‐lapse anisotropy could be caused by the alignment of the depositional grain fabric. Theoretical calculation predicts that this mechanism, when combined with fluid‐saturation changes, can generate the observed pattern of behaviour. If further supported by other researchers, this result would indicate that appropriately designed seismic surveys could be a useful tool for palaeo‐direction studies in clastic reservoirs and also a useful constraint for directional permeability in the reservoir flow simulation model.     

Meteorological monitoring of an active volcano: Implications for eruption prediction

Rainfall data collected on and around the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat between 1998 and 2003 were analysed to assess the impact on primary volcanic activity, defined here as pyroclastic flows, dome collapses, and explosions. Fifteen such rainfall-triggered events were identified. If greater than 20 mm of rain fell on a particular day, the probability of a dome collapse occurring on that day increased by a factor of 6.3% to 9.2%, compared to a randomly chosen day. Similarly, the probability of observing pyroclastic flows and explosions on a day with > 20 mm of rainfall increased by factors of 2.6 and 5.4, respectively. These statistically significant links increased as the rainfall threshold was increased. Seventy percent of these rainfall-induced dome collapse episodes occurred on the same calendar day (most within a few hours) as the onset of intense rainfall, but an extra 3 occurred one or two calendar days later. The state of the volcano was important, with the rainfall–volcanic activity link being strongest during periods of unstable dome growth and weakest during periods of no dome growth or after a recent major collapse.Over 50% of the heavy rain days were associated with large-scale weather systems that can potentially be forecast up to a few days ahead. However, the remaining heavy rain days were associated with small-scale, essentially unpredictable weather systems. There was significant variability in the amount of rainfall recorded by different rain gauges, reflecting topographic variations around the volcano but also the inherent small-scale variability within an individual weather system. Hence, any monitoring/warning program is recommended to use a network, rather than just a single gauge. The seasonal cycle in rainfall was pronounced, with nearly all the heavy rain days occurring in the May–December wet season. Hence, the dome was at its most vulnerable at the beginning of the wet season after a period of uninterrupted growth. Interannual variability in rainfall was related to tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies, and holds out the prospect of some limited skill in volcanic hazard forecasts at even longer lead times.     

Mathematical expressions used in amino acid racemisation geochronology—A review

A variety of mathematical expressions that describe changes over time (t) in the extent of amino acid racemisation (AAR, expressed as the ratio of d- to l-amino acid isomers or epimers) have been used in Quaternary geochronology. The integrated rate equation was first used to estimate fossil age from D/L but its geochronological utility is disadvantaged by uncertainties regarding the conformity of AAR in fossil protein to apparent reversible first-order kinetics for the entire reaction history. ‘Non-linear’ models have subsequently been used to relate D/L to t. The logarithmic equation successfully applied to Atlantic Coastal Plain research has not achieved widespread application, perhaps due to the regional calibration required if sensitivity to temperature is to be modelled, or the difficulties encountered when extending the model to include fossils with D/L<0.1. Success producing a linear correlation between D/L transformed with a power function and t has seen this approach emerge as one of the most commonly applied in AAR geochronology in recent years. Like parabola curve fitting, which has been applied to trends in D/L versus t in a variety of fossils and geographic settings, power transformations may not be suitable for geochronological modelling during the latter stages of amino acid diagenesis. Several studies have demonstrated the utility of simple and contingent linear equations for relating D/L to t. Future research should aim to reduce reliance on independent calibration and explore the geochronological benefits of AAR in pools other than the total hydrolysable amino acids.     

Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments: The vulnerability scoping diagram

Advancing vulnerability science depends in part on identifying common themes from multiple, independent vulnerability assessments. Such insights are difficult to produce when the assessments use dissimilar, often qualitative, measures. The Vulnerability Scoping Diagram is presented to facilitate the comparison of assessments with dissimilar measures. The diagram is illustrated with recent research on drought vulnerabilities, showing that common insights into vulnerability may emerge if independent research teams use a common structure for organizing information about exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity—even if the underlying measures differ between assessments. Broadly adopting this technique, which is grounded in the “Eight Steps” methodological protocol [Schröter, D., Polsky, C., Patt, A., 2005. Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10(4), 573–595], will enable a vulnerability meta-analysis, the lessons from which may permit places to identify helpful adaptation or mitigation options without first having to conduct their own vulnerability assessments.     

STAMP: spatial–temporal analysis of moving polygons

Research questions regarding temporal change in spatial patterns are increasingly common in geographical analysis. In this research, we explore and extend an approach to the spatial–temporal analysis of polygons that are spatially distinct and experience discrete changes though time. We present five new movement events for describing spatial processes: displacement, convergence, divergence, fragmentation and concentration. Spatial–temporal measures of events for size and direction are presented for two time periods, and multiple time periods. Size change metrics are based on area overlaps and a modified cone-based model is used for calculating polygon directional relationships. Quantitative directional measures are used to develop application specific metrics, such as an estimation of the concentration parameter for a von Mises distribution, and the directional rate of spread. The utility of the STAMP methods are demonstrated by a case study on the spread of a wildfire in northwestern Montana.      

Modeling long-period noise in kinematic GPS applications

We develop and test an algorithm for modeling and removing elevation error in kinematic GPS trajectories in the context of a kinematic GPS survey of the salar de Uyuni, Bolivia. Noise in the kinematic trajectory ranges over 15 cm and is highly autocorrelated, resulting in significant contamination of the topographic signal. We solve for a noise model using crossover differences at trajectory intersections as constraints in a least-squares inversion. Validation of the model using multiple realizations of synthetic/simulated noise shows an average decrease in root-mean-square-error (RMSE) by a factor of four. Applying the model to data from the salar de Uyuni survey, we find that crossover differences drop by a factor of eight (from an RMSE of 5.6 to 0.7 cm), and previously obscured topographic features are revealed in a plan view of the corrected trajectory. We believe that this algorithm can be successfully adapted to other survey methods that employ kinematic GPS for positioning.     

High-velocity stars from decay of small stellar systems

In this paper we present numerical results on the decay of small stellar systems under different initial conditions (multiplicity 3 ≤  N  ≤ 10, and various mass spectra, initial velocities and initial configurations). The numerical treatment uses the CHAIN1 code (Mikkola &38; Aarseth). Particular attention is paid to the distribution of high-velocity escapers: we define these as stars with velocity above 30 km s⁻¹. These numerical experiments confirm that small N -body systems are dynamically unstable and produce cascades of escapers in the process of their decay. It is shown that the fraction of stars that escape from small dense stellar systems with an escape velocity greater than 30 km s⁻¹ is ∼1 per cent for all systems treated here. This relatively small fraction must be considered in relation to the rate of star formation in the Galaxy in small groups: this could explain some moderately high-velocity stars observed in the Galactic disc and possibly some young stars with relatively high metallicity in the thick disc.     

Maquiladora Myths: Locational and Structural Change in Mexico's Export Manufacturing Industry

Trends in location, labor force, and procurement practices in maquiladoras are examined using recent data sources. A growing proportion of maquiladoras are selecting interior locations, south of the borderlands. Once dominated by young women, the labor force is rapidly approaching gender parity. While far below prevailing rates in the United States, maquiladora wages are comparable with equivalent manufacturing sectors in Mexico. Majority ownership of maquiladoras is split almost evenly between Mexico and the U.S., however, maquiladoras have failed to develop domestic sources of materials and parts and remain dependent on imported material inputs. As the North American Free Trade Agreement is phased in, the regulatory environment of maquiladoras will change but their role as low cost assembly specialists will persist.     

The breakdown of potassium feldspar at high water pressures

The equilibrium position of the reaction between sanidine and water to form “sanidine hydrate” has been determined by reversal experiments on well characterised synthetic starting materials in a piston cylinder apparatus. The reaction was found to lie between four reversed brackets of 2.35 and 2.50 GPa at 450 °C, 2.40 and 2.59 GPa at 550 °C, 2.67 and 2.74 GPa at 650 °C, and 2.70 and 2.72 GPa at 680 °C. Infrared spectroscopy showed that the dominant water species in sanidine hydrate was structural H₂O. The minimum quantity of this structural H₂O, measured by thermogravimetric analysis, varied between 4.42 and 5.85 wt% over the pressure range of 2.7 to 3.2 GPa and the temperature range of 450 to 680 °C. Systematic variation in water content with pressure and temperature was not clearly established. The maximum value was below 6.07 wt%, the equivalent of 1 molecule of H₂O per formula unit. The water could be removed entirely by heating at atmospheric pressure to produce a metastable, anhydrous, hexagonal KAlSi₃O₈ phase (“hexasanidine”) implying that the structural H₂O content of sanidine hydrate can vary. The unit cell parameters for sanidine hydrate, measured by powder X-ray diffraction, were a = 0.53366 (±0.00022) nm and c = 0.77141 (±0.00052) nm, and those for hexasanidine were a = 0.52893 (±0.00016) nm and c = 0.78185 (±0.00036) nm. The behaviour and properties of sanidine hydrate appear to be analogous to those of the hydrate phase cymrite in the equivalent barium system. The occurrence of sanidine hydrate in the Earth would be limited to high pressure but very low temperature conditions and hence it could be a potential reservoir for water in cold subduction zones. However, sanidine hydrate would probably be constrained to granitic rock compositions at these pressures and temperatures. Received: 6 May 1997 / Accepted: 2 October 1997