Economics and the ‘greenhouse effect’

There is growing scientific and public concern that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will produce global warming and other climatic changes. Although economic activity is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions, information and incentive problems make it difficult to translate concern about global warming into economic behaviour and policy conducive to reducing emissions. The paper considers a set of near term (carbon tax), intermediate term (afforestation, energy efficiency) and long term (new non-fossil fuel technologies) strategies for reducing CO₂ in the atmosphere. Each strategy has useful attributes, but shortcomings or limitations too. While the near term and intermediate term strategies can slow and perhaps reverse the growth of CO₂ emissions, only a successful long term strategy of fostering the development of some promising non-fossil fuel technologies, such as solar and solar-hydrogen, can eventually halt the build-up of CO₂ in the atmosphere. Moreover, public investment in the development of new non-fossil fuel technologies would largely obviate the information and incentive problems that currently stand in the way of an economically viable greenhouse policy.     

Continental margin syn‐rift salt tectonics at intermediate width margins

This paper examines interactions among syn‐rift continental margin extension, evaporites, particularly rocksalt (halite), deposited in the overlying sedimentary basins, and clastic sediment loading. We present dynamically evolving 2D numerical models that combine syn‐rift lithospheric extension, with salt (viscous halite, 10¹⁸–10¹⁹ Pa s) and clastic (frictional‐plastic) sediment deposition to investigate how salt is distributed and subsequently mobilized during syn‐rift extension. Example results are shown, contrasting salt deposition in the early, mid and late syn‐rift phases of a single lithospheric extension model. The lithospheric model is chosen to give depth‐dependent extension and intermediate width margins with proximal grabens and a hyperextended distal region. The models exhibit diachronous migration of extension towards the rift axis and this is reflected in the faulting of overlying sediments. The models illustrate the roles of timing of salt deposition, relative to rifting and subsequent sedimentation, in defining the location and deformation of syn‐rift salt, with post‐salt sediment progradation in some models. Late deposition of salt leads to increased lateral extent of the original salt body and decreased variation in salt thickness. Seaward flow of salt increases with later deposition; early syn‐rift salt is deposited and trapped in the grabens, whereas mid and late syn‐rift salt tends to flow towards the distal margin or even over the oceanic crust. Prograding clastic post‐salt sediments drive more substantial seaward movement of mid and late syn‐rift salt. A numerical model of the Red Sea with evaporite deposition during the mid to late syn‐rift period, preceded and followed by aggrading and prograding clastic sediment, shows reasonable agreement with observations from the central Red Sea.     

Non-stationary Approaches for Mapping Terrain and Assessing Prediction Uncertainty

It is well known that terrain may vary markedly over small areas and that statistics used to characterise spatial variation in terrain may be valid only over small areas. In geostatistical terminology, a non-stationary approach may be considered more appropriate than a stationary approach. In many applications, local variation is not accounted for sufficiently. This paper assesses potential benefits in using non-stationary geostatistical approaches for interpolation and for the assessment of uncertainty in predictions with implications for sampling design. Two main non-stationary approaches are employed in this paper dealing with (1) change in the mean and (2) change in the variogram across the region of interest. The relevant approaches are (1) kriging with a trend model (KT) using the variogram of residuals from local drift and (2) locally-adaptive variogram KT, both applied to a sampled photogrammetrically derived digital terrain model (DTM). The fractal dimension estimated locally from the double-log variogram is also mapped to illustrate how spatial variation changes across the data set. It is demonstrated that estimation of the variogram of residuals from local drift is worthwhile in this case for the characterisation of spatial variation. In addition, KT is shown to be useful for the assessment of uncertainty in predictions. This is shown to be true even when the sample grid is dense as is usually the case for remotely-sensed data. In addition, both ordinary kriging (OK) and KT are shown to provide more accurate predictions than inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation, used for comparative purposes.     

Simulating the response of a closed‐basin lake to recent climate changes in tropical West Africa (Lake Bosumtwi,Ghana)

Historical changes in the level of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, have been simulated using a catchment‐scale hydrological model in order to assess the importance of changes in climate and land use on lake water balance on a monthly basis for the period 1939–2004. Several commonly used models for computing evaporation in data‐sparse regions are compared, including the Penman, the energy budget, and the Priestley–Taylor methods. Based on a comparison with recorded lake level variations, the model with the energy‐budget evaporation model subcomponent is most effective at reproducing observed lake level variations using regional climate records. A sensitivity analysis using this model indicates that Lake Bosumtwi is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation, cloudiness and temperature. However, the model is also sensitive to changes in runoff related to vegetation, and this factor needs to be considered in simulating lake level variations. Both interannual and longer‐term changes in lake level over the last 65 years appear to have been caused primarily by changes in precipitation, though the model also suggests that the drop in lake level over the last few decades has been moderated by changes in cloudiness and temperature over that time. Based on its effectiveness at simulating the magnitude and rate of lake level response to changing climate over the historical record, this model offers a potential future opportunity to examine the palaeoclimatic factors causing past lake level fluctuations preserved in the geological record at Lake Bosumtwi. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land management impacts on runoff sources in small Amazon watersheds

Forest clearing and conversion to cattle pasture in the lowland Amazon region has been linked to soil compaction and increased soil water storage, which combine to diminish soil infiltration, enhance quick lateral flows and increase the stream flow response to precipitation. Quantifying the importance of quick surficial flow in response to this land use change requires identification of water sources within catchments that contribute to stream flow. Using an end member mixing analysis approach, potential contributing sources of stream flow were evaluated during an entire rainy season in a forest and a pasture watershed drained by ephemeral‐to‐intermittent streams in the south‐western Amazon. Water yield was 17% of precipitation in the pasture and 0·8% of precipitation in the forest. During the early rainy season, throughfall, groundwater, and soil water contributed 79%, 18%, and 3%, respectively, to total forest stream flow. Over the entire rainy season, throughfall, groundwater, and shallow soil water provided 57%, 24%, and 19%, respectively, of stream flow. In the pasture watershed, overland flow dominated stream flow both in the early (67%) and late (57%) rainy season, with a mean contribution of 60% overland flow, 35% groundwater, and 5% soil water. The uncertainty associated with those estimates was studied using a Monte Carlo approach. In addition to large changes in total surface flow, marked differences were found in the proportions of total stream flow in the second half of the rainy season between the forest and pasture watershed. These results suggest that (1) there is great potential for alteration of the hydrological budgets of larger watersheds as the proportion of deforested land in the Amazon increases, and (2) as more rainfall is diverted into fast flowpaths to streams in established pastures, the potential to deliver water with higher solute concentrations generated by erosion or by bypassing sites of solute removal increases. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Meteorites at Meridiani Planum provide evidence for significant amounts of surface and near‐surface water on early Mars

Abstract– Six large iron meteorites have been discovered in the Meridiani Planum region of Mars by the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity in a nearly 25 km‐long traverse. Herein, we review and synthesize the available data to propose that the discovery and characteristics of the six meteorites could be explained as the result of their impact into a soft and wet surface, sometime during the Noachian or the Hesperian, subsequently to be exposed at the Martian surface through differential erosion. As recorded by its sediments and chemical deposits, Meridiani has been interpreted to have undergone a watery past, including a shallow sea, a playa, an environment of fluctuating ground water, and/or an icy landscape. Meteorites could have been encased upon impact and/or subsequently buried, and kept underground for a long time, shielded from the atmosphere. The meteorites apparently underwent significant chemical weathering due to aqueous alteration, as indicated by cavernous features that suggest differential acidic corrosion removing less resistant material and softer inclusions. During the Amazonian, the almost complete disappearance of surface water and desiccation of the landscape, followed by induration of the sediments and subsequent differential erosion and degradation of Meridiani sediments, including at least 10–80 m of deflation in the last 3–3.5 Gy, would have exposed the buried meteorites. We conclude that the iron meteorites support the hypothesis that Mars once had a denser atmosphere and considerable amounts of water and/or water ice at and/or near the surface.     

Population dynamics and chemical ecology of New Zealand Demospongiae Latrunculia sp. nov. and Polymastia croceus (Poecilosclerida: Latrunculiidae: Polymastiidae)

For 3 years aspects of the population dynamics, growth, and bioactivity (measure of biologically active metabolite biosynthesis) of the Demospongiae Latrunculia sp. nov. and Polymastia croceus (Kelly‐Borges & Bergquist) were examined on a subtidal reef on the Wellington south coast, New Zealand. For both species, survival of adult sponges was high in all seasons, whereas juvenile sponges had poor survival. Recruitment of Latrunculia sp. nov. occurred in all seasons indicating that this species is reproductively active throughout the year. P. croceus recruited mostly in autumn, supporting previous work that found the sponge to be reproductively active in summer and early autumn only. For both sponge species, growth rates varied greatly between individuals and were unaffected by initial sponge size within the range examined. Sponges generally grew during winter and spring as the water temperature rose, and shrank during summer and autumn as the water temperature fell. This growth pattern may relate to seasonal variation in food abundance, and for P. croceus it may result also from seasonal differences in reproductive investment. After 2 years, Latrunculia sp. nov. and P. croceus had on average, halved and doubled in size, respectively. Latrunculia sp. nov. showed a seasonal pattern of bioactivity, being most active in spring possibly to prevent the surface overgrowth of fouling organisms. P. croceus had no seasonal pattern of bioactivity, but individuals were either very active or inactive. The bioactive metabolites in both species possibly aid in competitive interactions and prevent predation and biofouling.     

翼龙类在初龙形类中的系统发育位置

In 1996 Bennett published a cladistic analysis of the Archosauromorpha with 14 taxa and 126 characters, combining all the characters from several previous analyses (e.g., Gauthier 1984, Sereno and Arcucci 1990, Benton and Clark 1988) unless justification for discarding a character could be presented.