Temporal Uncertainty in a Small Area Open Geodemographic Classification

The 2001 Output Area Classification (2001 OAC) is an open source geodemographic classification of the UK built exclusively from 2001 UK Census data. There has been considerable user interest in its applicability to subsequent time periods, particularly given the potential propensity of characteristics and attributes in some areas to change during inter‐censual periods. Users often purchase commercial geodemographic classification products in the belief that purely census‐based classifications such as the 2001 OAC are uniformly unreliable because there is no temporal updating of input data. Yet there is evidence to suggest that whilst some UK neighborhoods are prone to sudden changes, many others change very little over protracted time periods. Using measures that are available at the small area level, temporal uncertainty indicators can be constructed to identify those areas that are less stable. Using mid‐year population estimates and dwelling stock data, this article develops three temporal uncertainty indicators. These provide a reliable means of gauging the stability or otherwise of neighborhood conditions. The conclusion from this is that while a large number of small areas in the UK do experience change over time, this change is not uniform in either degree or distribution, or by geodemographic type.     

Developing and testing the Automated Post-Event Earthquake Loss Estimation and Visualisation (APE-ELEV) technique

An automated, real-time, multiple sensor data source relying and globally applicable earthquake loss model and visualiser is desirable for post-event earthquake analysis. To achieve this there is a need to support rapid data ingestion, loss estimation and integration of data from multiple data sources and rapid visualisation at multiple geographic levels. In this paper, the design and development of the Automated Post-Event Earthquake Loss Estimation and Visualisation (APE-ELEV) system for real-time estimation and visualisation of insured losses incurred due to earthquakes is presented. A model for estimating ground up and net of facultative losses due to earthquakes in near real-time is implemented. Since post-event data is often available immediately from multiple disparate sources, a geo-browser is employed to facilitate the visualisation and integration of earthquake hazard, exposure and loss data. The feasibility of APE-ELEV is demonstrated using a test case earthquake that occurred in Tohoku, Japan (2011). The APE-ELEV model is further validated for ten global earthquakes using industry loss data.     

Effects of Lime‐Based Waste Materials on Immobilization and Phytoavailability of Cadmium and Lead in Contaminated Soil

Low cost lime‐based waste materials have recently been used to immobilize metals in contaminated soils. This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of oyster shells and eggshells as lime‐based waste materials on immobilization of cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) in contaminated soil, as well as their effects on metal availability to maize plants (Zea mays L.). Oyster shells and eggshells were applied to soils at 1 and 5% w/w, after which they were subject to 420 days of incubation. The toxicity characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP) test was employed to determine the mobility of Cd and Pb in soils. The results showed that the addition of waste materials effectively reduced the metal mobility as indicated by the decrease in the concentration of TCLP‐extractable Cd and Pb, and this was mainly due to significant increases in soil pH (from 6.74 in untreated soil to 7.85–8.13 in treated soil). A sequential extraction indicated that the addition of such alkaline wastes induced a significant decline in the concentration of Cd in the exchangeable fraction (from 23.64% in untreated soil to 1.90–3.81% in treated soil), but it increased the concentration of Cd in the carbonate fraction (from 19.59% in untreated soil to 36.66–46.36% in treated soil). In the case of Pb, the exchangeable fraction was also reduced (from 0.67% in untreated soil to 0.00–0.01% in treated soil), and the fraction of Pb bound to carbonate was slightly increased (from 16.61% in untreated soil to 16.41–18.25% in treated soil). Phytoavailability tests indicated that the metal concentrations in the shoots of maize plant were reduced by 63.39–77.29% for Cd and by 47.34–75.95% for Pb in the amended soils, with no significant differences being observed for the amendment types and the application rates. Overall, these results indicate that oyster shells and eggshells can be used as low cost lime‐based amendments for immobilizing Cd and Pb in contaminated soils.     

Rethinking “Diversity” Through Analyzing Residential Segregation Among Hispanics in Phoenix,Miami, and Chicago

Hispanics are an internally diverse population, yet residential segregation within census-defined groups is often overlooked. Census data are used to examine evenness and exposure segregation among Hispanics in Chicago, Miami, and Phoenix along the lines of national origin, race, year of arrival, and income. Results suggest that segregation exists in Miami where there is more national origin diversity, between white and black Hispanics in Chicago, in all three cities for foreign-born Hispanic recent arrivals, and especially between high- and low-income Hispanics. Attempts to theorize immigration, social capital and solidarity, and the future of democratic society have inadequately conceptualized “diversity”; our work critically employs quantitative analysis to suggest an enriched and more nuanced socio-spatial understanding of the term.     

Linked and Independent African American Migration from Los Angeles

Empirical evidence of environmental performance of urban areas designed according to the principles of sustainable urbanism is limited. Using the case study of Civano, a planned development that was designed and marketed as a sustainable community in Tucson, Arizona, we quantify fine-scale differences in urban form and delivery of ecosystem services. We found that the urban design of the first phase of development translated to the lowest surface temperatures and highest albedo and vegetative density. The first and second phases of the development greatly reduced potable water consumption through the addition of nonpotable resources; however, the second phase had higher temperatures and less dense vegetation than even the conventional development. Our results show modest improvements in environmental performance through sustainable urbanism and suggest further refinement in fine-scale spatial analysis of the role of urban design in the provisioning of services.     

A Dasymetric Map of Maine Lobster Trap Distribution Using Local Knowledge

As coastlines face increased development pressure, it is important to have the best available spatial information on coastal activities, including commercial fishing. This article describes the creation of a fine-scale spatial representation of lobster fishing activity along the Maine coast of the United States using a combination of participatory geographic information systems (GIS) and dasymetric mapping methods. These methods are employed here to support data collection from a large number of active lobster harvesters while maintaining individual privacy. The resulting representation of the fishery is designed as a planning tool for identifying potential interactions between marine resources and human activities.     

Space-Time scales of internal waves

Abstract

We have contrived a model E(αω) α μ^?1ω^?p+1(ω ²?ω _i ²)^?+ for the distribution of internal wave energy in horizontal wavenumber, frequency-space, with wavenumber α extending to some upper limit μ(ω) α ω ^r-1 (ω ²?ω _i ²)^½, and frequency ω extending from the inertial frequency ω _i to the local Väisälä frequency n(y). The spectrum is portrayed as an equivalent continuum to which the modal structure (if it exists) is not vital. We assume horizontal isotropy, E(α, ω) = 2παE(α₁, α₂, ω), with α₁, α₂ designating components of α. Certain moments of E(α₁, α₂, ω) can be derived from observations. (i) Moored (or freely floating) devices measuring horizontal current u(t), vertical displacement η(t),…, yield the frequency spectra F _(u,η,…)(ω) = ∫∫ (U ², Z ²,…)E(α₁, ∞₂, ω) dα₁ dα₂, where U, Z,… are the appropriate wave functions. (ii) Similarly towed measurements give the wavenumber spectrum F _(…)(α1) = ∫∫… dα₂ dω. (iii) Moored measurements horizontally separated by X yield the coherence spectrum R(X, ω) which is related to the horizontal cosine transform ∫∫ E(α1, α2 ω) cos α₁ Xdα₁ dα₁. (iv) Moored measurements vertically separated by Y yield R(Y, ω) and (v) towed measurements vertically separated yield R(Y, α₁), and these are related to similar vertical Fourier transforms. Away from inertial frequencies, our model E(α, ω) α ω ^?p-r for α ≦ μ ω ω ^r, yields F(ω) ∞ ω ^?p, F(α₁) ∞ α₁ ^?q, with q = (p + r ? 1)/r. The observed moored and towed spectra suggest p and q between 5/3 and 2, yielding r between 2/3 and 3/2, inconsistent with a value of r = 2 derived from Webster's measurements of moored vertical coherence. We ascribe Webster's result to the oceanic fine-structure. Our choice (p, q, r) = (2, 2, 1) is then not inconsistent with existing evidence. The spectrum is E(∞, ω) ∞ ω ^?1(ω ²?ω _i ^{2 ?1}, and the α-bandwith μ ∞ (ω ²?ω _i ²)⁺ is equivalent to about 20 modes. Finally, we consider the frequency-of-encounter spectra F([sgrave]) at any towing speed S, approaching F(ω) as S ≦ S _o, and F(α₁) for α₁ = [sgrave]/S as S ≧ S _o, where S _o = 0(1 km/h) is the relevant Doppler velocity scale.     

Not developed yet? Alternative ways to include locations without changes in land use change models

Biogeographers have developed a new generation of statistical models called presence-only models, which require no data concerning the absence of a species and do not assume that the absence of a species indicates habitat unsuitability. Both characteristics are especially useful when modeling a species that is actively spreading across a landscape. Although urban expansion is sometimes equated to an invading species, the applicability of presence-only models has not yet been explored when modeling urban growth. This article compares predictions of urban growth using a presence-only model (ecological niche factor analysis) and a more traditional presence–absence model (logistic regression). An additional model used pseudo-absence sites, from the presence-only model output, as input into the presence–absence model. The models were applied to New Jersey's Barnegat Bay Watershed. Overall, the traditional presence–absence model performed the best, although the presence-only model was sufficiently similar to warrant further exploration of presence-only models when no reliable absence data (i.e., locations where no conversion occurred) exists. However, due to data-formatting requirements of the presence-only model, it is difficult to accommodate data pertaining to administrative boundaries, which are inherently Boolean. Finally, the output based on the pseudo-absence approach overpredicted urban conversion when compared to the other approaches.     

Uncertain seas: probabilistic modeling of future coastal flood zones

ABSTRACT

Future sea-level rise will likely expand the inland extent of storm surge inundation and, in turn, increase the vulnerability of the people, properties and economies of coastal communities. Modeling future storm surge inundation enhanced by sea-level rise uses numerous data sources with inherent uncertainties. There is uncertainty in (1) hydrodynamic storm surge models, (2) future sea-level rise projections, and (3) topographic digital elevation models representing the height of the coastal land surface. This study implemented a Monte Carlo approach to incorporate the uncertainties of these data sources and model the future 1% flood zone extent in the Tottenville neighborhood of New York City (NYC) in a probabilistic, geographical information science (GIS) framework. Generated spatiotemporal statistical products indicate a range of possible future flood zone extents that results from the uncertainties of the data sources and from the terrain itself. Small changes in the modeled land and water heights within the estimated uncertainties of the data sources results in larger uncertainty in the future flood zone extent in low-lying areas with smaller terrain slope. An interactive web map, UncertainSeas.com, visualizes these statistical products and can inform coastal management policies to reduce the vulnerability of Tottenville, NYC to future coastal inundation.