Benchmarking sustainability in cities: The role of indicators and future scenarios

Scenarios are a useful tool to help think about and visualise the future and, as such, are utilised by many policymakers and practitioners. Future scenarios have not been used to explore the urban context in much depth, yet have the potential to provide valuable insights into the robustness of decisions being made today in the name of sustainability. As part of a major research project entitled Urban Futures, a toolkit has been developed in the UK to facilitate the use of scenarios in any urban context and at any scale relevant to that context. The toolkit comprises two key components, namely, (i) a series of indicators comprising both generic and topic area-specific indicators (e.g., air quality, biodiversity, density, water) that measure sustainability performance and (ii) a list of characteristics (i.e., 1–2-sentence statements about a feature, issue or small set of issues) that describe four future scenarios. In combination, these two components enable us to measure the performance of any given sustainability indicator, and establish the relative sensitivity or vulnerability of that indicator to the different future scenarios. An important aspect of the methodology underpinning the toolkit is that it is flexible enough to incorporate new scenarios, characteristics and indicators, thereby allowing the long-term performance of our urban environments to be considered in the broadest possible sense.     

Performance and Sustainability of District-Scale Ground Coupled Heat Pump Systems

This study proposes a solution to the problem of maintaining the performance and sustainability of district-scale, cooling-dominated ground coupled heat pump (GCHP) systems. These systems tend to overheat because heat dissipates slowly in relation to the size of the borefields. To demonstrate this problem, a 2000-borehole field is considered at a district-scale GCHP system in the Upper Midwest, US. The borefield’s ground and fluid temperature responses to its design heating and cooling loads are simulated using computational fluid dynamics implemented by applying the finite volume method. The ground temperature is predicted by applying the thermal loads uniformly over the borefield and simulating heat dissipation to the surrounding geology through conduction coupled with advection due to groundwater flow. The results show that a significant energy imbalance will develop in the ground after the first few years of GCHP operation, even with high rates of groundwater flow. The model presented in this study predicts that the temperature at the center of the borefield will reach 18 °C after 5 years and approximately 50 °C after 20 years of operation in the absence of any mitigation strategies. The fluid temperature in the boreholes is then simulated using a single borehole model to estimate the heat pump coefficient of performance, which decreases as the modeled system heats up. To balance the energy inputs/outputs to the ground—thus maintaining the system’s performance—an operating scheme utilizing cold-water circulation during the winter is evaluated. Under the simulated conditions, this mitigation strategy carries the excess energy out of the borefield. Therefore, the proposed mitigation strategy may be a viable measure to sustaining the operating efficiency of cooling-dominated, district-scale borefields in climates with cold winters.     

Pre-CME Onset Fuses – Do the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers Hold the Clues to the CME Onset Process?

Understanding the onset of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is surely one of the holy grails of solar physics today. Inspection of data from the Heliospheric Imagers (HI), which are part of the SECCHI instrument suite aboard the two NASA STEREO spacecraft, appears to have revealed pre-eruption signatures which may provide valuable evidence for identifying the CME onset mechanism. Specifically, an examination of the HI images has revealed narrow rays comprised of a series of outward-propagating plasma blobs apparently forming near the edge of the streamer belt prior to many CME eruptions. In this pilot study, we inspect a limited dataset to explore the significance of this phenomenon, which we have termed a pre-CME ‘fuse’. Although, the enhanced expulsion of blobs may be consistent with an increase in the release of outward-propagating blobs from the streamers themselves, it could also be interpreted as evidence for interchange reconnection in the period leading to a CME onset. Indeed, it is argued that the latter could even have implications for the end-of-life of CMEs. Thus, the presence of these pre-CME fuses provides evidence that the CME onset mechanism is either related to streamer reconnection processes or the reconnection between closed field lines in the streamer belt and adjacent, open field lines. We investigate the nature of these fuses, including their timing and location with respect to CME launch sites, as well as their speed and topology.     

Assessing the footprint and volume of oil deposited in deep-sea sediments following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

The lateral and vertical extents of Macondo oil in deep-sea sediments resulting from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill were determined using chemical forensics and geostatistical kriging of data from 2397 sediment samples from 875 cores collected in 2010/2011 and 2014. The total mass of Macondo-derived hopane on the seafloor in 2010/2011 was conservatively estimated between 2.00 and 2.26 metric tons, derived from 219,000 to 247,000 barrels of oil; or 6.9 to 7.7% of the 3.19 million barrels spilled. Macondo-derived hopane was deposited over 1030 to 1910 km² of the seafloor, mostly (> 97%) in surface (0–1 cm) and near-surface (1–3 cm) sediments, which is consistent with short-term oil deposition. Although Macondo oil was still present in surface sediments in 2014, the total mass of Macondo-derived hopane was significantly lower (~ 80 to 90%) than in 2010/2011, affirming an acute impact from the spill and not long-term deposition from natural seeps.     

Geochemistry and stable isotope investigation of acid mine drainage associated with abandoned coal mines in central Montana,USA

The Great Falls-Lewistown Coal Field (GFLCF) in central Montana contains over 400 abandoned underground coal mines, many of which are discharging acidic water with serious environmental consequences. Areas of the mines that are completely submerged by groundwater have circum-neutral pH and relatively low concentrations of metals, whereas areas that are only partially flooded or freely draining have acidic pH (< 3) and high concentrations of metals. The pH of the mine drains either decreases or increases after discharging to the surface, depending on the initial ratio of acidity (mainly Al and Fe²⁺) to alkalinity (mainly HCO₃^?). In acidic, Fe-rich waters, oxidation of Fe²⁺ after exposure to air is microbially catalyzed and follows zero-order kinetics, with computed rate constants falling in the range of 0.97 to 1.25 mmol L^? 1 h^? 1. In contrast, Fe²⁺ oxidation in near-neutral pH waters appears to be first-order with respect to Fe²⁺ concentration, although insufficient data were collected to constrain the rate law expression. Rates of Fe²⁺ oxidation in the field are dependent on temperature such that lower Fe²⁺ concentrations were measured in down-gradient waters during the day, and higher concentrations at night. Diel cycles in dissolved concentrations of Zn and other trace metals (Mn, Ni) were also noted for down-gradient waters that were net alkaline, but not in the acidic drains.The coal seams of the GFLCF and overlying Cretaceous sandstones form a perched aquifer that lies ~ 50 m above the regional water table situated in the underlying Madison Limestone. The δD and δ¹⁸O values of flooded mine waters suggest local derivation from meteoric water that has been partially evaporated in agricultural soils overlying the coal mines. The S and O isotopic composition of dissolved sulfate in the low pH mine drains is consistent with oxidation of biogenic pyrite in coal under aerated conditions. A clear distinction exists between the isotopic composition of sulfate in the acid mine waters and sulfate in the adjacent sedimentary aquifers, making it theoretically possible to determine if acid drainage from the coal mines has leaked into the underlying Madison aquifer.     

Radiolarian faunal turnover through the Paleocene-Eocene transition,Mead Stream,New Zealand

The Mead Stream section, northern Clarence Valley, is the most complete Paleocene- early Eocene record of pelagic sedimentation in the mid-latitude (~55° S paleolatitude) Pacific Ocean. Integrated studies of sediments, siliceous and calcareous microfossils and carbon isotopes have shown that major global climate events are recorded by distinct changes in lithofacies and biofacies. The consistent and often abundant occurrence of siliceous microfossils in the section provides a rare opportunity to undertake quantitative analysis of highlatitude radiolarian population changes through the late Paleocene and early Eocene. Late Paleocene assemblages are dominated by spumellarians, although the nassellarian species Buryella tetradica is the most abundant species. The Paleocene-Eocene boundary (= base of Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum) in the Mead Stream section is marked by major faunal turnover, including an abrupt decrease in B. tetradica, first occurrences of several low-latitude species (e.g. Amphicraspedum prolixum s.s., Lychnocanium auxilla, Podocyrtis papalis, Phormocyrtis turgida, Theocorys? phyzella) and increased abundance of large, robust spumellarians relative to small actinommids. Above an 18-m thick, lowermost Eocene interval in which radiolarians are abundant to common, radiolarian abundance declines progressively, falling to <10 individuals per gram in the marl-dominated unit that is correlated with the early Eocene climatic optimum. These trends in siliceous microfossil populations signal major changes in watermass characteristics along the northeastern New Zealand margin in the earliest Eocene. Assemblages typical of cool, eutrophic, watermasses that dominated the Marlborough Paleocene were replaced in the early Eocene by assemblages more characteristic of oligotrophic, stratified, subtropical-tropical watermasses.