Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature influences on failed consecutive rainy seasons over eastern Africa

Rainfall over eastern Africa (10°S–10°N; 35°E–50°E) is bimodal, with seasonal maxima during the "long rains" of March–April–May (MAM) and the "short rains" of October–November–December (OND). Below average precipitation during consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa can have devastating long-term impacts on water availability and agriculture. Here, we examine the forcing of drought during consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa by Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The forcing of eastern Africa precipitation and circulation by SSTs is tested using ten ensemble simulations of a global weather forecast model forced by 1950–2010 observed global SSTs. Since the 1980s, Indo-Pacific SSTs have forced more frequent droughts spanning consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa. The increased frequency of dry conditions is linked to warming SSTs over the Indo-west Pacific and to a lesser degree to Pacific Decadal Variability. During MAM, long-term warming of tropical west Pacific SSTs from 1950–2010 has forced statistically significant precipitation reductions over eastern Africa. The warming west Pacific SSTs have forced changes in the regional lower tropospheric circulation by weakening the Somali Jet, which has reduced moisture and rainfall over the Horn of Africa. During OND, reductions in precipitation over recent decades are oftentimes overshadowed by strong year-to-year precipitation variability forced by the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.     

Towards quantitative ecological risk assessment of elevated carbon dioxide levels in the marine environment

The environmental impact of elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels has become of more interest in recent years. This, in relation to globally rising CO₂ levels and related considerations of geological CO₂ storage as a mitigating measure. In the present study effect data from literature were collected in order to conduct a marine ecological risk assessment of elevated CO₂ levels, using a Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). It became evident that information currently available from the literature is mostly insufficient for such a quantitative approach. Most studies focus on effects of expected future CO₂ levels, testing only one or two elevated concentrations. A full dose-response relationship, a uniform measure of exposure, and standardized test protocols are essential for conducting a proper quantitative risk assessment of elevated CO₂ levels. Improvements are proposed to make future tests more valuable and usable for quantitative risk assessment.     

Reach and catchment-scale influences on invertebrate assemblages in a river with naturally high fine sediment loads

Stream invertebrate distribution patterns reflect local sedimentary and hydraulic conditions, which in turn are influenced by a range of factors operating at larger scales. We assessed whether spatial variation in invertebrate assemblages across a meso-scale catchment is best understood in terms of the characteristics of the study reaches themselves or the characteristics of respective upstream catchment areas. The study river experiences naturally high fine sediment loads as a result of the extraordinary supply of sediment from high erodible marls in its catchment. We hypothesized that between-reach variation in the volume of fine sediment stored within the channel results from a combination of reach and upstream catchment characteristics, and that these characteristics help explain variation in invertebrate assemblages. The storage of fine sediment in study reaches correlated with a number of upstream catchment characteristics, as well as reach-scale hydraulic conditions. Variability in invertebrate assemblages correlated most strongly (62% of variance explained) with the characteristics of the catchment upstream from each reach (area of contribution), with the characteristics of the reaches accounting for only 35% of the variability. The explanatory power of the reach-scale habitat variables was reduced when the effect of upstream catchment conditions was removed. This suggests inbuilt effects of larger scale conditions on reach habitat and invertebrate assemblages. Results lend support to theories of scale hierarchy within river systems and help emphasize the need to target management at upstream catchment areas.     

A reference station-based GNSS computing mode to support unified precise point positioning and real-time kinematic services

Currently, the GNSS computing modes are of two classes: network-based data processing and user receiver-based processing. A GNSS reference receiver station essentially contributes raw measurement data in either the RINEX file format or as real-time data streams in the RTCM format. Very little computation is carried out by the reference station. The existing network-based processing modes, regardless of whether they are executed in real-time or post-processed modes, are centralised or sequential. This paper describes a distributed GNSS computing framework that incorporates three GNSS modes: reference station-based, user receiver-based and network-based data processing. Raw data streams from each GNSS reference receiver station are processed in a distributed manner, i.e., either at the station itself or at a hosting data server/processor, to generate station-based solutions, or reference receiver-specific parameters. These may include precise receiver clock, zenith tropospheric delay, differential code biases, ambiguity parameters, ionospheric delays, as well as line-of-sight information such as azimuth and elevation angles. Covariance information for estimated parameters may also be optionally provided. In such a mode the nearby precise point positioning (PPP) or real-time kinematic (RTK) users can directly use the corrections from all or some of the stations for real-time precise positioning via a data server. At the user receiver, PPP and RTK techniques are unified under the same observation models, and the distinction is how the user receiver software deals with corrections from the reference station solutions and the ambiguity estimation in the observation equations. Numerical tests demonstrate good convergence behaviour for differential code bias and ambiguity estimates derived individually with single reference stations. With station-based solutions from three reference stations within distances of 22–103 km the user receiver positioning results, with various schemes, show an accuracy improvement of the proposed station-augmented PPP and ambiguity-fixed PPP solutions with respect to the standard float PPP solutions without station augmentation and ambiguity resolutions. Overall, the proposed reference station-based GNSS computing mode can support PPP and RTK positioning services as a simpler alternative to the existing network-based RTK or regionally augmented PPP systems.     

Performance analysis of integrated GPS/GLONASS carrier phase-based positioning

Due to the different signal frequencies for the GLONASS satellites, the commonly-used double-differencing procedure for carrier phase data processing can not be implemented in its straightforward form, as in the case of GPS. In this paper a novel data processing strategy, involving a three-step procedure, for integrated GPS/GLONASS positioning is proposed. The first is pseudo-range-based positioning, that uses double-differenced (DD) GPS pseudo-range and single-differenced (SD) GLONASS pseudo-range measurements to derive the initial position and receiver clock bias. The second is forming DD measurements (expressed in cycles) in order to estimate the ambiguities, by using the receiver clock bias estimated in the above step. The third is to form DD measurements (expressed in metric units) with the unknown SD integer ambiguity for the GLONASS reference satellite as the only parameter (which is constant before a cycle slip occurs for this satellite). A real-time stochastic model estimated by residual series over previous epochs is proposed for integrated GPS/GLONASS carrier phase and pseudo-range data processing. Other associated issues, such as cycle slip detection, validation criteria and adaptive procedure(s) for ambiguity resolution, is also discussed. The performance of this data processing strategy will be demonstrated through case study examples of rapid static positioning and kinematic positioning. From four experiments carried out to date, the results indicate that rapid static positioning requires 1 minute of single frequency GPS/GLONASS data for 100% positioning success rate. The single epoch positioning solution for kinematic positioning can achieve 94.6% success rate over short baselines (<6 km).     

The use of immersive real-time 3D computer graphics for visualisation of dilution of precision in virtual environments

Dilution of precision (DOP) is a fundamental concept in satellite navigation and surveying. A deeper understanding of this concept can be achieved through the means of 3D immersive visualisation. In this article, we present a method for visualising and exploring the spatial variation of DOP and discuss its presentation within an immersive virtual environment. The work demonstrates a real-time simulation of global positioning system (GPS) satellite geometry, modelled and visualised within a virtual representation of the university campus. The number of satellites visible to the receiver is modelled in real time as a user walks through the university campus. During this process, the changing satellite geometry is visualised in both 3D and aerial views. Various DOP values update to the screen against a pseudo-realistic building backdrop as the user travels. Both the aerial views and the changing volumes of the tetrahedra drawn in 3D provide an effective way of interpreting why exceptionally large or small horizontal DOP and vertical DOP values can occur in an urban context. Because the factors affecting DOPs are inherently 3D, communicating the spatial uncertainty of global positioning system coordinates within an immersive stereo environment has been viewed as a particularly powerful communication tool by both undergraduate and postgraduate students studying GI Science.     

Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment

Abstract

A modelling experiment is used to examine different land-use scenarios ranging from extreme deforestation (31% forest cover) to pristine (95% forest cover) conditions and related Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes to assess whether a change in streamflow dynamics, discharge extremes and mean annual water balance of a 73.4-km² tropical headwater catchment in Costa Rica could be detected. A semi-distributed, conceptual rainfall–runoff model was adapted to conceptualize the empirically-based, dominant hydrological processes of the study area and was multi-criteria calibrated using different objective functions and empirical constraints on model simulations in a Monte Carlo framework to account for parameter uncertainty. The results suggest that land-use change had relatively little effect on the overall mean annual water yield (<3%). However, streamflow dynamics proved to be sensitive in terms of frequency, timing and magnitude of discharge extremes. For low flows and peak discharges of return periods greater than one year, land use had a minor influence on the runoff response. Below these thresholds (<1-year return period), forest cover potentially decreased runoff peaks and low flows by as much as 10%, and non-forest cover increased runoff peaks and low flows by up to 15%. The study demonstrated the potential for using hydrological modelling to help identify the impact of protection and reforestation efforts on ecosystem services.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Birkel, C., Soulsby, C., and Tetzlaff, D., 2012. Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1543–1561.     

Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin,Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble

ABSTRACT

A semi-distributed hydrological model is developed, calibrated and validated against unregulated river discharge from the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin, northern Brazil. Climate change impacts are simulated using projections from the 41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Scenario results are compared to a 1971–2000 base line. Most climate models suggest declines in mean annual discharge although some predict increases. A large proportion suggest that the dry season experiences large declines in discharge, especially during the transition to the rising water period. Most models (>75%) suggest declines in annual minimum flows. This may have major implications for both current and planned hydropower schemes. There is greater uncertainty in projected changes in wet season and annual maximum discharges. Two techniques are investigated to reduce uncertainty in projections, but neither is able to provide more confidence in the simulated changes in discharge.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor F. Hattermann     

The radiation environment in L-2 orbit: implications on the non-X-ray background of the eROSITA pn-CCD cameras

The pn-CCD cameras at the focal plane of the eROSITA space observatory will be the first X-ray (0.2?C12?keV) detector to operate in a L-2 orbit. Therefore, no direct information of instrumental non X-ray background (NXB) is available to make predictions for eROSITA. Since, in general, the instrumental NXB experienced in orbit has a major impact on the overall sensitivity of the cameras, we investigated and modeled the L-2 radiation environment and its interaction with the eROSITA mass distribution and cameras, in order to quantify the expected pn-CCD NXB level. We obtain an average value of NXB ??25% lower than that observed by the pn-CCDs on-board the XMM-Newton satellite, which is placed in a Highly Elliptical Orbit (HEO). We discuss this result in light of the differences between the L-2 and HEO space environments.     

The evolving narrative of the Darfur conflict as represented in <Emphasis Type="Italic">The New York Times</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">The Washington Post</Emphasis>, 2003–2009

News media influence local to global interactions between people, societies, and governments by producing place images. Representations of Africa in Western news media are heavily imbued with colonialist notions of cultural geography. In particular, Western news media have represented conflicts in Africa as ‘tribal’, a trope that erases geographic and historical context, and discourages actions that could prevent or reduce violent conflict. To determine if ‘tribalism’ remains important in coverage of African conflict, we use framing analysis to evaluate news on Sudan’s Darfur region in The New York Times and The Washington Post during 2003–2009. We find that these newspapers predictably relied on stereotypes related to tribalism to simplify Darfur’s geography and make the conflict meaningful to intended readers. Tribal portrayal of African war is inherently political, and, problematically, neither newspaper recognized that their use of the tribal narrative was parallel to the views of both the Sudanese government and external observers that challenged the actions of the Sudanese government. However, we also found that stereotypical representations became less prominent over time, apparently because reporters found that the initial, simplistic framing of the conflict did not match their encounters with geographic reality. We emphasize the decline in stereotypical tropes, because this suggests behind-the-scenes negotiation about representations in these news organizations. Recognizing voices that challenge stereotypical portrayals is necessary to developing place images that are geographically more accurate.