Stabilization and global climate policy

Academic and political debates over long-run climate policy often invoke “stabilization” of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), but only rarely are non-CO₂ greenhouse gases addressed explicitly. Even though the majority of short-term climate policies propose trading between gases on a global warming potential (GWP) basis, discussions of whether CO₂ concentrations should be 450, 550, 650 or perhaps as much as 750 ppm leave unstated whether there should be no additional forcing from other GHGs beyond current levels or whether separate concentration targets should be established for each GHG. Here, we use an integrated modeling framework to examine multi-gas stabilization in terms of temperature, economic costs, carbon uptake and other important consequences. We show that there are significant differences in both costs and climate impacts between different “GWP equivalent” policies and demonstrate the importance of non-CO₂ GHG reduction on timescales of up to several centuries.     

Towards High-Resolution Habitat Suitability Modeling of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems in the Deep-Sea: Resolving Terrain Attribute Dependencies

Recent habitat suitability models used to predict the occurrence of vulnerable marine species, particularly framework building cold-water corals, have identified terrain attributes such as slope and bathymetric position index as important predictive parameters. Due to their scale-dependent nature, a realistic representation of terrain attributes is crucial for the development of reliable habitat suitability models. In this paper, three known coral areas and a noncoral control area off the west coast of Ireland were chosen to assess quantitative and distributional differences between terrain attributes derived from bathymetry grids of varying resolution and information content. Correlation analysis identified consistent changes of terrain attributes as grain size was altered. Response characteristics and dimensions depended on terrain attribute types and the dominant morphological length-scales within the study areas. The subsequent effect on habitat suitability maps was demonstrated by preliminary models generated at different grain sizes. This study demonstrates that high resolution habitat suitability models based on terrain parameters derived from multibeam generated bathymetry are required to detect many of the topographical features found in Irish waters that are associated with coral. This has implications for marine spatial planning in the deep sea. Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Marine Geodesy to view the free supplemental file.     

Modelling the behaviour of accretion flows in X-ray binaries

We review how the recent increase in X-ray and radio data from black hole and neutron star binaries can be merged together with theoretical advances to give a coherent picture of the physics of the accretion flow in strong gravity. Both long term X-ray light curves, X-ray spectra, the rapid X-ray variability and the radio jet behaviour are consistent with a model where a standard outer accretion disc is truncated at low luminosities, being replaced by a hot, inner flow which also acts as the launching site of the jet. Decreasing the disc truncation radius leads to softer spectra, as well as higher frequencies (including quasi periodic oscillations, QPOs) in the power spectra, and a faster jet. The collapse of the hot flow when the disc reaches the last stable orbit triggers the dramatic decrease in radio flux, as well as giving a qualitative (and often quantitative) explanation for the major hard–soft spectral transition seen in black holes. The neutron stars are also consistent with the same models, but with an additional component due to their surface, giving implicit evidence for the event horizon in black holes. We review claims of observational data which conflict with this picture, but show that these can also be consistent with the truncated disc model. We also review suggested alternative models for the accretion flow which do not involve a truncated disc. The most successful of these converge on a similar geometry, where there is a transition at some radius larger than the last stable orbit between a standard disc and an inner, jet dominated region, with the X-ray source associated with a mildly relativistic outflow, beamed away from the disc. However, the observed uniformity of properties between black holes at different inclinations suggests that even weak beaming of the X-ray emission may be constrained by the data. After collapse of the hot inner flow, the spectrum in black hole systems can be dominated by the disc emission. Its behaviour is consistent with the existence of a last stable orbit, and such data can be used to estimate the black hole spin. By contrast, these systems can also show very different spectra at these high luminosities, in which the disc spectrum (and probably structure) is strongly distorted by Comptonization. The structure of the accretion flow becomes increasingly uncertain as the luminosity approaches (and exceeds) the Eddington luminosity, though there is growing evidence that winds may play an important role. We stress that these high Eddington fraction flows are key to understanding many disparate and currently very active fields such as ULX, Narrow Line Seyfert 1’s, and the growth of the first black holes in the Early Universe.     

Epibiosis across the Late Devonian biotic crisis: a review

Across the Late Devonian biotic crisis, sclerobionts declined in diversity and abundance and the proportions of brachiopod shell textures changed radically. Most of the major sclerobiont clades were common to Givetian through Mississippian ecosystems. Microconchids, most abundant sclerobiont in most Devonian assemblages, were replaced by bryozoans in the Mississippian. Diversity and abundance of Mississippian sclerobionts were lower than Frasnian–Famennian assemblages.     

Roads, petroleum and accessibility: the case of eastern Ecuador

Oil exploration and production (E&P) activities in remote regions are often considered a catalyst for landscape change through the direct alterations created by infrastructure features, as well as through the accessibility provided by roads. The construction, expansion and improvement of transportation routes in isolated areas can attract newcomers and resource users who engage in illegal logging, poaching, commercial agriculture, as well as planned and spontaneous colonization. These actions can lead to larger-scale surface disturbances that may also affect indigenous territories and natural preserves. However, do these parallel activities and outcomes always accompany E&P development, or can controlled access minimize changes? To answer this question we utilized an “accounting from above” approach that uses remote sensing and GIS techniques to analyze surface disturbance patterns linked to infrastructure features for both E&P and parallel activities. Our study area included four neighboring oil blocks in eastern Ecuador’s tropical forest, displaying three types of E&P development: public-access, controlled-access and roadless. The first objective was to determine the spatial relationship between infrastructure pattern, disturbance regimes and the type of road access for the year 2000 using land-use land-cover maps, soils data, protected areas and colonization zones. The second objective was to examine the statistical relationships between agricultural conversion and the above factors. Spatial analysis findings suggest that areas of overlap where colonization zones, public-access roads and fertile soils meet are most prone to deforestation. Statistical findings from a linear regression model suggest that the presence of public-access non-oil roads are significant at explaining the conversion of natural vegetation (forest) to agriculture, while the presence of protected areas helps explain the conservation of forested land.     

Planetary X-ray fluorescence analogue laboratory experiments and an elemental abundance algorithm for C1XS

We have conducted laboratory experiments as an analogue to planetary XRF (X-ray fluorescence) missions in order to investigate the role of changing incidence (and phase) angle geometry and sample grain-size on the intensity of XRF from regolith-like samples. Our data provide evidence of a grain-size effect, where XRF line intensity decreases with increasing sample grain-size, as well as an almost ubiquitous increase in XRF line intensity above incidence angles of ∼60°. Data from a lunar regolith simulant are also used to test the accuracy of an XRF abundance algorithm developed at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), which is used to estimate the major element abundance of the lunar surface from Chandrayaan-1 X-ray Spectrometer (C1XS) XRF data. In ideal situations (i.e., when the input spectrum is well defined and the XRF spectrum has a sufficient signal to noise ratio) the algorithm can recover a known rock composition to within 1.0 elemental wt% (1σ).     

Resonant Absorption as Mode Conversion? II. Temporal Ray Bundle

A fast-wave pulse in a simple, cold, inhomogeneous MHD model plasma is constructed by Fourier superposition over frequency of harmonic waves that are singular at their respective Alfvén resonances. The pulse partially reflects before reaching the resonance layer, but also partially tunnels through to it to convert to an Alfvén wave. The exact absorption/conversion coefficient for the pulse is shown to be given precisely by a function of transverse wavenumber tabulated in Paper I of this sequence, and to be independent of frequency and pulse width.