Policy uncertainty and diffusion of carbon capture and storage in an optimal region

Abstract

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is the value of the climate change impacts from 1 tonne of carbon emitted today as CO₂, aggregated over time and discounted back to the present day. We used PAGE2002, the same probabilistic integrated assessment model as used by the Stern Review (Stern et al., 2006), to calculate the SCC and to examine how it varies with discount rate; and find that it is not sensitive to the path of emissions on which the tonne of carbon is superimposed. The mean value of the SCC is $43 per tonne under both a business-as-usual scenario, and under a scenario aimed at stabilizing CO₂ concentrations at 550 ppm. This counter-intuitive result is caused by the interplay between the logarithmic relationship between forcing and concentration, the nonlinear relationship of damage to temperature, and discounting. However, the SCC is sensitive to a number of scientific and economic inputs to the model. Two recent distributions for the sensitivity of climate to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ (Murphy et al., 2004; Stainforth et al., 2005) increase the mean value of the SCC from $43 to $68 and $90 per tonne. Using a pure rate of time preference of 0.1% per year, as in the Stern Review, gives a mean SCC of $365 per tonne.     

Integrity monitoring of fixed ambiguity Precise Point Positioning (PPP) solutions

Traditional positioning methods, such as conventional Real Time Kinematic (cRTK) rely upon local reference networks to enable users to achieve high-accuracy positioning. The need for such relatively dense networks has significant cost implications. Precise Point Positioning (PPP) on the other hand is a positioning method capable of centimeter-level positioning without the need for such local networks, hence providing significant cost benefits especially in remote areas. This paper presents the state-of-the-art PPP method using both GPS and GLONASS measurements to estimate the float position solution before attempting to resolve GPS integer ambiguities. Integrity monitoring is carried out using the Imperial College Carrier-phase Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring method. A new method to detect and exclude GPS base-satellite failures is developed. A base-satellite is a satellite whose measurements are differenced from other satellite’s measurements when using between-satellite-differenced measurements to estimate position. The failure detection and exclusion methods are tested using static GNSS data recorded by International GNSS Service stations both in static and dynamic processing modes. The results show that failure detection can be achieved in all cases tested and failure exclusion can be achieved for static cases. In the kinematic processing cases, failure exclusion is more difficult because the higher noise in the measurement residuals increases the difficulty to distinguish between failures associated with the base-satellite and other satellites.     

The measurement of mangrove characteristics in southwest Florida using spot multispectral data

An intensive in situ sampling program near Marco Island, Florida during 19–23 October 1988 collected information on mangrove type, maximum canopy height, and percent canopy closure. These data were correlated with selected vegetation index information derived from analysis of SPOT multispectral (XS) data obtained on 21 October 1988. The Normalized Difference (ND) vegetation index information was the most highly correlated index with percent canopy closure (r=0.91). Percent canopy closure information can be used as a surrogate for mangrove density which is of great value when predicting which parts of the mangrove ecosystem are at greatest risk after an oil spill occurs. Such information is very valuable when constructing oil spill Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) Maps for tropical regions of the world.     

Hydrological shifts and tree growth responses to river modification along the Apalachicola River,Florida

Shifts in the hydrologic regime of Florida’s Apalachicola River have been attributed to anthropogenic changes throughout its watershed, including local dam construction. To assess impacts of those shifts on floodplain forests, we reconstructed tree growth using dendrochronology and compared these trends with hydrological and climatic variables. Comparisons of stream-gage data before and after dam construction on the Apalachicola River revealed statistically significant mean declines in annual average stage. Mean minimum annual stages, rise rates, and fall rates also decreased, while hydrograph reversals increased. Growth in four tree species correlated strongly with site-specific inundation parameters. A wetter climate in the two decades following dam construction and fine-scale fluctuation of the hydrograph may have set the stage for positive growth releases. Logging and hurricane wind throw events may have also contributed. However, drier conditions in the last two decades are now exacerbated by stage-discharge declines that had been masked previously. Tree growth rates and recruitment have decreased and, in the absence of a major disturbance, the forest canopy is composed of an older cohort of individuals. Our findings highlight how hydrograph variability, climate change, and vegetation disturbance are all relevant for gaging and anticipating the range of impacts of river modification on floodplain forests.     

Climatic Change and Desert Vegetation Distribution: Assessing Thirty Years of Change in Southern Nevada's Mojave Desert

A major theme in physical geography and biogeography is understanding how vegetation changes across geographic gradients during climate change. We assess shifts in distributions of fifteen Mojave Desert plant species based on a 2008 resurvey of 103 vegetation transects that were established in 1979. We model changes in species distributions using Maximum Entropy (Maxent) with environmental and climate variables to predict probability of species’ occurrences. Climate during the ten-year period preceding the 2008 vegetation survey was 1.5°C warmer and 3 cm per year of precipitation drier than the ten years preceding 1979. Species inhabiting the highest elevations and strongly correlated with precipitation displayed areal reductions from 1979 through 2008.     

Movement of water infiltrated from a recharge basin to wells

Local surface water and stormflow were infiltrated intermittently from a 40-ha basin between September 2003 and September 2007 to determine the feasibility of recharging alluvial aquifers pumped for public supply, near Stockton, California. Infiltration of water produced a pressure response that propagated through unconsolidated alluvial-fan deposits to 125 m below land surface (bls) in 5 d and through deeper, more consolidated alluvial deposits to 194 m bls in 25 d, resulting in increased water levels in nearby monitoring wells. The top of the saturated zone near the basin fluctuates seasonally from depths of about 15 to 20 m. Since the start of recharge, water infiltrated from the basin has reached depths as great as 165 m bls. On the basis of sulfur hexafluoride tracer test data, basin water moved downward through the saturated alluvial deposits until reaching more permeable zones about 110 m bls. Once reaching these permeable zones, water moved rapidly to nearby pumping wells at rates as high as 13 m/d. Flow to wells through highly permeable material was confirmed on the basis of flowmeter logging, and simulated numerically using a two-dimensional radial groundwater flow model. Arsenic concentrations increased slightly as a result of recharge from 2 to 6 μg/L immediately below the basin. Although few water-quality issues were identified during sample collection, high groundwater velocities and short travel times to nearby wells may have implications for groundwater management at this and at other sites in heterogeneous alluvial aquifers.     

The influence of a season of extreme wet weather events on exposure of the World Heritage Area Great Barrier Reef to pesticides

The 2010-2011 wet season was one of extreme weather for the State of Queensland, Australia. Major rivers adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) were discharging at rates 1.5 to >3 times higher than their long term median. Exposure to photosystem II herbicides has been routinely monitored over a period of up to 5 years at 12 inshore GBR sites. The influence of this wet season on exposure to photosystem II herbicides was examined in the context of this long-term monitoring record and during flood plume events in specific regions. Median exposures expressed as diuron equivalent concentration were an average factor of 2.3 times higher but mostly not significantly different (p<0.05) to the median for the long-term monitoring record. The herbicides metolachlor and tebuthiuron were frequently detected in flood plume waters at concentrations that reached or exceeded relevant water quality guidelines (by up to 4.5 times).     

Through‐water terrestrial laser scanning of gravel beds at the patch scale

Acquiring high resolution topographic data of natural gravel surfaces is technically demanding in locations where the bed is not exposed at low water stages. Often the most geomorphologically active surfaces are permanently submerged. Gravel beds are spatially variable and measurement of their detailed structure and particle sizes is essential for understanding the interaction of bed roughness with near‐bed flow hydraulics, sediment entrainment, transport and deposition processes, as well as providing insights into the ecological responses to these processes. This paper presents patch‐scale laboratory and field experiments to demonstrate that through‐water terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has the potential to provide high resolution digital elevation models of submerged gravel beds with enough detail to depict individual grains and small‐scale forms. The resulting point cloud data requires correction for refraction before registration. Preliminary validation shows that patch‐scale TLS through 200 mm of water introduces a mean error of less than 5 mm under ideal conditions. Point precision is not adversely affected by the water column. The resulting DEMs can be embedded seamlessly within larger sub‐aerial reach‐scale surveys and can be acquired alongside flow measurements to examine the effects of three‐dimensional surface geometry on turbulent flow fields and their interaction with instream ecology dynamics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.