Influence of lowland aquifers and anthropogenic impacts on the isotope hydrology of contrasting mesoscale catchments

We examined the isotope hydrology of eight, contrasting mesoscale (104–488 km²) catchments characterized by a systematic change in the relative importance of upland and lowland areas that reflects the relative distribution of metamorphic and sedimentary rocks. Precipitation and stream water were monitored over a 12‐month period, and stable isotopes were used to examine spatial variations in the hydrometric and tracer dynamics of the catchments. Isotopic tracers were used to examine the temporal dynamics of different runoff sources, and geochemical tracers (alkalinity) were used to identify the geographic sources of runoff. Input–output relationships of isotopic tracers were explored using a gamma function to fit a transit time distribution, which was used to test the hypothesis that the length of mean transit times increased systematically with the cover of sandstone aquifers in the catchments. However, in three catchments, the increased influence of anthropogenic factors, notably reservoir storage, urban runoff and agricultural abstraction for irrigation, prevented reliable transit time estimation. For sites where tentative mean transit time estimates were possible, these varied from around 1.6 years in upland catchments dominated by metamorphic rocks (>75%) and responsive soils to around 4 years in catchments with 34% sandstone cover and freely draining soils. These preliminary results were consistent with inferences of geochemical tracers on the increased role of sedimentary aquifers as runoff sources in lowland areas, but observation from a larger number of sites is needed to confirm this. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

El Niño–Southern Oscillation diversity and Southern Africa teleconnections during Austral Summer

Climate Dynamics - A wide range of sea surface temperature (SST) expressions have been observed during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation events of 1950–2010, which have occurred...     

Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012

Declining sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic has gained significant attention with respect to the prospect of increased shipping activities. To investigate relationships between recent declines in sea ice area with Arctic maritime activity, trend and correlation analysis was performed on sea ice area data for total, first-year ice (FYI), and multi-year ice (MYI), and on a comprehensive shipping dataset of observed vessel transits through the Vessel Traffic Reporting Arctic Canada Traffic Zone (NORDREG zone) from 1990 to 2012. Links to surface air temperature (SAT) and the satellite derived melt season length were also investigated. Between 1990 and 2012, statistically significant increases in vessel traffic were observed within the NORDREG zone on monthly and annual time-scales coincident with declines in sea ice area (FYI, MYI, and total ice) during the shipping season and on a monthly basis. Similarly, the NORDREG zone is experiencing increased shoulder season shipping activity, alongside an increasing melt season length and warming surface air temperatures (SAT). Despite these trends, only weak correlations between the variables were identified, although a step increase in shipping activity is apparent following the former summer sea ice extent minimum in 2007. Other non-environmental factors have also likely contributed to the observed increase in Arctic shipping activity within the Canadian Arctic, such as tourism demand, community re-supply needs, and resource exploration trends.     

Climate change research and credibility: balancing tensions across professional,personal, and public domains

For research to positively impact society, it must be scientifically credible. The researcher plays a key role in establishing and maintaining credibility, particularly in the climate change field. This paper provides a structure for relating the credibility of researchers themselves to that of research outputs, analysing ‘researcher credibility’ with reference to three overlapping domains: personal, professional, and public. The researcher’s role in each domain is considered in a reflexive way, examining the research process and the researcher’s actions. Varied definitions of researcher credibility and possible means to achieve it in each domain are discussed, drawing on relevant cross-disciplinary literature. We argue that, in certain contexts, the actions of researchers can have a direct impact on the credibility of their research. There is scope for broadening researcher credibility to include more public-oriented behaviours. This, however, may be contentious and problematic: potential conflicts exist between public action and professional credibility, with the latter usually taking precedence. By contrast, though personal action/inaction rarely affects professional credibility, researchers’ personal behaviours may influence public perceptions of research credibility and the importance of addressing climate change.     

Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London

High temperatures and heatwaves can cause large societal impacts by increasing health risks, mortality rates, and personal discomfort. These impacts are exacerbated in cities because of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and the high and increasing concentrations of people, assets and economic activities. Risks from high temperatures are now widely recognised but motivation and implementation of proportionate policy responses is inhibited by inadequate quantification of the benefits of adaptation options, and associated uncertainties. This study utilises high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of urban temperatures along with projections of demographic change, to provide a probabilistic risk assessment of heat impacts on urban society. The study focuses on Greater London and the surrounding region, assessing mortality risk, thermal discomfort in residential buildings, and adaptation options within an integrated framework. Climate change is projected to increase future heat-related mortality and residential discomfort. However, adjusting the temperature response function by 1–2 °C, to simulate adaptation and acclimatisation, reduced annual heat related mortality by 32–69 % across the scenarios tested, relative to a no adaptation scenario. Similar benefits of adaptation were seen for residential discomfort. The study also highlights additional benefits in terms of reduced mortality and residential discomfort that mitigating the urban heat island, by reducing albedo and anthropogenic heat emissions, could have.     

Modes of variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation estimated by AGCMs

The seasonal mean variability of the atmospheric circulation is affected by processes with time scales from less than seasonal to interannual or longer. Using monthly mean data from an ensemble of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) realisations, the interannual variability of the seasonal mean is separated into intraseasonal, and slowly varying components. For the first time, using a recently developed method, the slowly varying component in multiple AGCM ensembles is further separated into internal and externally forced components. This is done for Southern Hemisphere 500?hPa geopotential height from five AGCMs in the CLIVAR International Climate of the Twentieth Century project for the summer and winter seasons. In both seasons, the intraseasonal and slow modes of variability are qualitatively well reproduced by the models when compared with reanalysis data, with a relative metric finding little overall difference between the models. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is by far the dominant mode of slowly varying internal atmospheric variability. Two slow-external modes of variability are related to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, and a third is the atmospheric response to trends in external forcing. An ENSO-SAM relationship is found in the model slow modes of variability, similar to that found by earlier studies using reanalysis data. There is a greater spread in the representation of model slow-external modes in winter than summer, particularly in the atmospheric response to external forcing trends. This may be attributable to weaker external forcing constraints on SH atmospheric circulation in winter.     

Monitoring persistent organic pollutants in leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) confirms maternal transfer

To assess threats to endangered species, it is critical to establish baselines for contaminant concentrations that may have detrimental consequences to individuals or populations. We measured contaminants in blubber and fat from dead leatherback turtles and established baselines in blood and eggs in nesting turtles. In fat, blubber, blood and eggs, the predominant PCBs were 153 + 132, 187 + 182, 138 + 163, 118, and 180 + 193. Total PCBs, 4,4′-DDE, total PBDEs and total chlordanes were significantly and positively correlated between blood and eggs, suggesting maternal transfer. Significant positive relationships also existed between fat and blubber in stranded leatherbacks. Less lipophilic PCBs appeared to more readily transfer from females to their eggs. PBDE profiles in the four tissues were similar to other wildlife populations but different from some turtle studies. Concentrations were lower than those shown to have acute toxic effects in other aquatic reptiles, but may have sub-lethal effects on hatchling body condition and health.