基于DERF的SD方法预测月降水和极端降水日数

针对动力气候模式对区域或更小空间尺度内的日降水预测技巧偏低的问题,应用最优子集回归 (OSR) 方法对国家气候中心业务化的月动力气候模式 (DERF) 输出的高度场、风场和海平面气压场进行降尺度处理用于降水预测,旨在提高预测准确率。1982—2006年交叉检验结果表明:OSR方法能显著提高降水预测技巧,其中11~40 d改善效果最为显著。在此基础上,应用一步法和两步法两种统计降尺度方法预测极端降水日数,交叉检验结果表明:两种方法均优于随机预测,冬季两步法预测技巧略高于一步法,夏季一步法略优于两步法。综合认为OSR,OSR结合随机天气发生器 (WG) 两种统计降尺度方法对月尺度降水或极端降水日数的预测均具有较高的技巧,可作为短期气候预测的重要参考信息。     

徐沛煤田晚古生代成煤环境与聚煤规律研究

根据已有研究成果及大量钻孔资料,运用沉积学、煤田地质学的基本理论和方法,分析了徐沛煤田晚古生代的成煤环境,并总结了其聚煤规律及控制因素。结果表明,石炭—二叠纪聚煤作用主要发生在海岸带的堡岛体系和过渡相中,由海岸带向两侧,聚煤条件逐渐变差;堡岛体系泥炭坪形成的煤层厚度小,结构单一;三角洲体系分流间湾泥炭坪和泛滥平原泥炭沼泽形成的煤层厚度大;煤层在垂向上由薄至厚,结构由简单至复杂,稳定性逐渐变差;平面上,自北而南含煤层数逐渐增多,含煤层位逐渐抬高,条带状富煤带有向南迁移趋势。     

Assessment of physical vulnerability to agricultural drought in China

Food security has drawn great attention from both researchers and practitioners in recent years. Global warming and its resultant extreme drought events have become a great challenge to crop production and food price stability. This study aimed to establish a preliminary theoretical methodology and an operational approach for assessing the physical vulnerability of two wheat varieties (“Yongliang #4” and “Wenmai #6”) to agricultural drought using Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model (EPIC). Drought hazard index was set up based on output variables of the EPIC water stress (WS), including the magnitude and duration of WS during the crop-growing period. The physical vulnerability curves of two wheat varieties to drought were calculated by the simulated drought hazard indexes and loss ratios. And the curve’s effect on drought disaster risk was defined as A, B and C sections, respectively. Our analysis results showed that (a) physical vulnerability curves varied between two wheat varieties, which were determined by genetic parameters of crops; (b) compared with spring wheat “Yongliang 4#” winter wheat “Wenmai 6#” was less vulnerable to drought under the same drought hazard intensity scenario; (c) the wheat physical vulnerability curve to drought hazard displayed a S shape, suggesting a drought intensity–dependent magnifying or reducing effect of the physical vulnerability on drought disasters; (d) the reducing effect was mainly in the low-value area of vulnerability curve, whereas the magnifying effect was in the middle-value area, and the farming-pastoral zone and the Qinling Mountain–Huaihe River zone formed important spatial division belts.     

Correlation between land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions in urban areas

Urban areas are the main sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Previous studies have identified the effectiveness of better urban design on mitigating climate change and land-use patterns in cities as important factors in reducing GHG by local governments. However, studies documenting the link between land-use and GHG emissions are scant. Therefore, this study explores the driving forces of land-use change and GHG emission increments in urban areas and investigates their correlations. The study area, Xinzhuang, is a satellite city of Taipei that has rapidly urbanized in the past few decades. Twenty-one potential variables were selected to determine the driving forces of land-use change and GHG emission increments by binomial logistic regression based on the investigation data of national land use in 1996 and 2007. The correlation of land-use change and GHG increments was examined by Spearman rank-order analysis. Results of logistic regression analysis identified that population and its increasing density rate are main driving forces on both land-use change and GHG increments. The Spearman rank correlation matrix indicates that fluctuating urbanization level is significantly correlated with the increase of total GHG emissions, the emissions of residence, commerce, and transportation sectors in neighborhoods; and the emissions of residence and transportation sectors seem closely connected to current urbanization level. The findings suggest that relationships among land-use, urbanization, and GHG emissions in urban areas vary greatly according to residence and transportation characteristics. Land-based mitigation may provide the most viable mechanism for reducing GHG emissions through residence and transportation sectors.     

Removal of 2,4-dichlorophenol and pentachlorophenol from aqueous media by electrochemical process

Chlorophenols are persistent toxins in the natural environment. In this investigation, 2,4-dichlorophenol (2,4-DCP) and pentachlorophenol (PCP) in aqueous media were degraded using an electrokinetic process (EK) and an electro-Fenton process (EF) using stainless steel and graphite as the anode and cathode, respectively. Chlorophenols were degraded via direct electrolysis at the surface of the electrode in the EK process. However, in the EF process, the degradation mechanism includes direct electrolysis and oxidation by hydroxyl radicals. The optimal conditions were a current density of 0.75 mA/cm² and an air flow of 0.7 l/min at pH 4. Under the optimal conditions, the 2,4-DCP and PCP removal rates in the EF process were 80.18 and 64.03 %, respectively. The mineralization efficiencies of 2,4-DCP and PCP were 78.23 and 75.77 %, respectively. The results of dechlorination reveal that almost all of the chlorines were released, but some were retained in the intermediates. The dechlorination efficiency revealed that the EF and EK4 processes two chlorines from 2,4-DCP. They released four or five chlorines and four chlorines from PCP, respectively. The kinetic results provide evidence of pseudo-first degradation. The rate constant (k _cp) declined as pH_i was increased from 4 to 10. The k _cp values reveal that the pH is an important factor that affects the degradation efficiency in the electrochemical process.     

鄂尔多斯盆地及周缘地区中二叠统沉积特征*

鄂尔多斯盆地及周缘地区上古生界天然气资源丰富,中二叠统石盒子组是主力勘探层位,明确其沉积相及沉积特征对于该区油气勘探具有重要的意义。在野外剖面踏勘及钻井岩心观察的基础上,对研究区石盒子组地层及岩性特征、沉积相类型及沉积演化等进行系统分析。结果表明: 研究区中二叠统石盒子组主要发育粗粒陆源碎屑岩系。中二叠世研究区仍存在间歇性局部海侵,石盒子组主要以陆相沉积体系为主,包含冲积扇沉积相、河流沉积相、湖泊沉积相、三角洲沉积相等,同时发育障壁海岸沉积体系。研究区自北向南石盒子组依次发育冲积扇、河流、三角洲、滨浅湖等沉积,南缘、西南缘发育浅水三角洲沉积,南缘、东南缘障壁海湾中发育潟湖和障壁沙坝沉积。     

造山带环境中的东疆型镁铁—超镁铁杂岩

新疆东部黄山－镜儿泉一带产有大－中型铜镍矿床的镁铁－超镁铁岩体是中石炭统弧后盆地引张环境下的热侵位产物，主要岩石类型有橄榄岩、辉橄岩、橄辉岩、二辉岩、辉长苏长岩、苏长辉长岩、辉长岩、橄长岩、辉长岩和闪长岩等；其超镁铁岩相对富铁．不具变质组构，并具橄榄石＋斜方辉石＋单斜辉石＋角闪石±斜长石矿物组合；岩石化学以富硅、贫碱、贫铝、贫钙为特征，并具拉斑玄武岩系演化趋势。这些岩体是造山带杂岩体的一种新类型，可称为东疆型。     

黑沙蒿(Artemisia ordosica)对羊柴(Hedysarum laeve)及柠条(Caragana intermedia)的化感作用

采用生物测定方法,研究了黑沙蒿(Artemisia ordosica)叶水浸液对生态相关种羊柴(Hedysarum laeve)与柠条(Caragana intermedia)种子萌发与幼苗生长的化感作用。结果表明:黑沙蒿叶水浸液可抑制羊柴种子萌发与幼苗生长,抑制作用随浓度的升高逐渐加强;幼苗形态指标对叶水浸液作用较为敏感,敏感程度为苗干重苗鲜重根鲜重根长苗高根干重;丙二醛含量综合化感效应指数值明显大于其他指标,相对电导率也表现出较敏感的抑制效应。黑沙蒿叶水浸液对柠条种子萌发存在低促高抑作用;对幼苗形态指标综合化感效应表现为促进,促进作用随浓度的升高逐渐减弱,根鲜重、根长与苗干重为较敏感指标;对生理指标化感综合效应表现为抑制,抑制作用随浓度升高而增强,相对电导率是最敏感的指标,丙二醛含量指标也较敏感。由此推断,对膜系统的伤害可能是黑沙蒿化感物质多种效应的生物起点。     

南极洲泥盆系概况及其与中国泥盆系之比较

南极洲的泥盆系主要分布于横贯南极山脉的麦克默多和俄亥俄岭－埃尔斯沃思山等两个沉积盆地中。前一个盆地的泥盆系代表从海岸泻湖－河流三角洲到近岸冲积平原的层序；后一个盆地的彭萨科拉山的泥盆系较厚，从非海相冲积扇－冲积平原－浅海相，最后又恢复到非海相沉积环境，但在俄亥俄岭却沉积了厚度不大的浅海相地层，含Ｍａｌｖｉｎｏｋａｆｒｉｃ生物地理大区的海相双壳类、腹足类、三叶虫、竹节石和鱼类等化石。除了上述两个沉积盆地外，在罗斯海两边却出露了火山岩，说明该地当时处于俯冲带附近的火山弧中。中国华南的曲靖型和西北的祁连山型泥盆系也属于滨海相和非海相沉积，它们与南极洲的泥盆系可资比较，但两者的生物地理区系并不相同     

珠江三角洲地区重磁资料解释的深部断裂系统

采用中国地质大学(武汉)完成的海洋863项目"海洋深部地壳探测技术"专题"重磁地震综合反演的方法技术及软件系统"中的软件(包括10多种方法技术),对珠江三角洲地区重磁资料进行数据处理,有效成图重力71幅,航磁88幅,共129幅.