东南极拉斯曼丘陵石榴斜长角闪岩中角闪石的~(40)Ar-~(39)Ar年龄及其地质意义

本文对东南极拉斯曼丘陵出露的石榴斜长角闪岩中的角闪石进行了４０Ａｒ－３９Ａｒ年龄测定,分别得到角闪石视年龄１５８６Ｍａ、１０１１～１０８０Ｍａ、７６１Ｍａ和５２９～５８２Ｍａ,角闪石坪年龄１０３６Ｍａ和５５４Ｍａ,角闪石Ａｒ－Ａｒ等时线年龄１０１０Ｍａ,这些同位素年龄证据,首次完整地记录了该区所经历的几乎所有构造变质热事件,为近几年国内外地质学家关于该区构造变质热事件争论的焦点问题,即晚元古代的１０００Ｍａ格林维尔事件（Ｇｒｅｎｖｉｌｉａｎ）与早古生代的５００Ｍａ泛非事件（Ｐａｎ－Ａｆｒｉｃａｎ）孰轻孰重以及前者是否存在,提供了答案。角闪石的４０Ａｒ－３９Ａｒ年龄测定结果表明,拉斯曼丘陵地区经历了复杂的多期变质演化历史,其原岩可能形成于早－中元古代,占主导地位的应该是晚元古代的１０００Ｍａ格林维尔事件,而５００Ｍａ泛非事件则是晚期较强烈的变质热事件。     

Influence of strong monsoon winds on the water quality around a marine cage-culture zone in a shallow and semi-enclosed bay in Taiwan

Influences of marine cage culture and monsoonal disturbances, northeasterly (NE) and southwesterly (SW) monsoons on the proximal marine environment were investigated across a gradient of sites in a semi-enclosed bay, Magong Bay (Penghu Islands, Taiwan). Elevated levels of ammonia produced by the cages were the main pollutant and distinguished the cage-culture and intermediary zones (1000 m away from the cages) from the reference zone in the NE monsoon, indicating currents produced by the strong monsoon may have extended the spread of nutrient-enriched waters without necessarily flushing such effluents outside Magong Bay. Moreover, the levels of chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity were distinguishable between two seasons, suggesting that resuspension caused by the NE monsoon winds may also influence the water quality across this bay. It indicated that the impacts of marine cage culture vary as a function of distance, and also in response to seasonal movements of water driven by local climatic occurrences.     

Assessing regression‐based statistical approaches for downscaling precipitation over North America

This paper assesses linear regression‐based methods in downscaling daily precipitation from the general circulation model (GCM) scale to a regional climate model (RCM) scale (45‐ and 15‐km grids) and down to a station scale across North America. Traditional downscaling experiments (linking reanalysis/dynamical model predictors to station precipitation) as well as nontraditional experiments such as predicting dynamic model precipitation from larger‐scale dynamic model predictors or downscaling dynamic model precipitation from predictors at the same scale are conducted. The latter experiments were performed to address predictability limit and scale issues. The results showed that the downscaling of daily precipitation occurrence was rarely successful at all scales, although results did constantly improve with the increased resolution of climate models. The explained variances for downscaled precipitation amounts at the station scales were low, and they became progressively better when using predictors from a higher‐resolution climate model, thus showing a clear advantage in using predictors from RCMs driven by reanalysis at its boundaries, instead of directly using reanalysis data. The low percentage of explained variances resulted in considerable underestimation of daily precipitation mean and standard deviation. Although downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors (or RCM precipitation from RCM predictors) cannot really be considered downscaling, as there is no change in scale, the exercise yields interesting information as to the limit in predictive ability at the station scale. This was especially clear at the GCM scale, where the inability of downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors demonstrates that GCM precipitation‐generating processes are largely at the subgrid scale (especially so for convective events), thus indicating that downscaling precipitation at the station scale from GCM scale is unlikely to be successful. Although results became better at the RCM scale, the results indicate that, overall, regression‐based approaches did not perform well in downscaling precipitation over North America. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.     

用ECMWF数值预报产品预报台风路径

为提高台风预报效果,并使其客观定量,本文运用ECMWF数值预报(0 h(实况场)～168 h)产品,以涡度中心为基础,在气旋性涡旋的格区中,找准恰当的"扭角",用计算机图上作业程序确定台风位置,平均误差84 km,表明本方案有其优越之处.在预报过程中,对涡度中心的阈值和搜寻半径系数的选定,结合实际计算后的距离误差和可预报率作了些讨论.逐年运用效果统计表明,本文提出的方案有着良好的应用前景.     

中生代复杂构造体系的成矿过程与成矿作用——以华北大陆北缘西拉木伦钼铜多金属成矿带为例

西拉木伦钼铜多金属成矿带处于华北克拉通与中亚造山带的过渡区,是古生代古亚洲构造域与中生代西太平洋构造域的交汇部位。在中生代受多种构造体系的制约,如中亚造山带造山后期局部伸展、蒙古-鄂霍茨克俯冲-碰撞造山作用、古太平洋板块的向西俯冲和中国东部岩石圈减薄事件的影响等。西拉木伦成矿带成矿斑岩锆石U-Pb年龄和辉钼矿Re-Os同位素年龄资料显示,钼铜矿成岩成矿主要集中在260～220Ma、180～150Ma和140～120Ma三个时期。结合华北克拉通北缘构造演化历史,推测这三期成矿作用主要与造山后局部伸展、构造体系转折和陆内伸展(岩石圈减薄)过程有关,并相应建立了"车户沟式"、"鸡冠山式"和"敖伦花式"三类斑岩钼铜矿床成矿模式。进一步研究表明,岩石的酸碱性、岩浆来源、岩浆的氧逸度、岩浆演化方式、构造背景等因素,制约了成矿作用的专属性。     

浙江象山港岛屿春、夏季潮间带大型底栖生物的群落结构特征

基于2015年4月(春季)和6月(夏季)象山港主要岛屿潮间带大型底栖生物的生态调查数据,采用优势度、生物多样性指数、次级生产力、聚类、多维尺度排序及丰度/生物量比较曲线等方法,分析了主要岛屿潮间带大型底栖生物的群落特征和季节变化。结果表明:(1)春、夏季共鉴定出大型底栖生物52种,其中底栖动物与底栖藻类各有45和7种,春、夏季共有物种数为34种,短滨螺、中间拟滨螺、齿纹蜒螺、青蚶等11种为春、夏季共有优势种;(2)夏季平均丰度(2074.85g/m²)高于春季(1505.01g/m²),春季平均生物量和次级生产力(2373.75ind./m²,16.31g/(m²·a))高于夏季(2210.17ind./m²,12.17g/(m²·a));(3)春季Shannon-Weiner多样性指数和Pielou’sevenness均匀度指数(2.742,1.679)高于夏季(2.580, 1.623),夏季Margalef丰富度指数(0.716)高于春季(0.667...     

珠江口外陆架表层沉积物的地球化学分区

根据249个表层沉积物样品的Ca,Al,N,P,Mg,Fe,Mn,Ti和有机碳的测定数据,利用稳健RQ型主分量分析及Q型聚类分析方法,对珠江口外陆架表层沉积物进行了地球化学分类,并将该陆架区划分成陆源细碎屑沉积区、经叠加改造的残留泥砂质沉积区、生物碎屑沉积区以及高能环境下的石英砂质沉积区。结果表明了稳健统计方法相对于传统统计方法的优越性,以及采用稳健主分量的Q载荷进行聚类分析相对于用原始变量进行聚类分析的优越性。     

长江口泥沙絮凝静水沉降动力学模式的试验研究

细颗粒泥沙在咸水中的絮凝沉降是河流泥沙向海输送过程中在河口区发生的重要现象，是河口拦门沙形成与发育的主要原因之一。本文根据室内模拟试验研究，提出长江口泥沙絮凝静水沉降的二级动力学模式，通过该式求得不同泥沙含量和盐度情况下絮凝沉降的衰减系数，半衰期和平均沉降速率等动力学参数，定量地分析泥沙含量和盐度对泥沙絮凝沉降过程的影响。     

利用地表电阻率校正大地电磁静态偏移

基于大地电磁静态偏移的基本原理,通过对大量实测资料的处理,提出了一种比传统静态校正方法更有效地压制静态偏移的方法---静态偏移的标定校正法.其核心内容是利用岩性测试的电性参数和测点所在位置表层或浅层地层去标定视电阻率曲线的首支,并利用人机交互式可视化静态偏移校正软件去改正视电阻率曲线.经过40多条测线共700多个测点的实际应用,证明该方法是目前较理想的静态偏移校正方法.