Aerial photographs taken in 1978 and 1987, Landsat TM images in 1998 as well as soil, hydrology and socio-economic data for the oases in Sangong River Watershed were processed by Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS). There are two typical agricultural land uses in oases, Farm-based Land Use with large-scale intensified agricultural activities (FLU) and Household Responsibility-based Land Use with small-scale activities (HRLU). The Index Model of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC), Weighted Index Sum (WIS) and logistic stepwise regression model were established to contrast the two typical LUCC processes and their driving forces. The land use patterns were dominated by cropland and grassland for the entire region, and cropland, residential and industrial land were increasing stably. In the HRLU areas, woodland and grassland declined dramatically, but in the FLU areas, grassland decreased only by 12.0%, whereas woodland increased by 13.7%. LUCC was stronger in the earlier stage (1978–1987) than in the later stage (1987–1998) for the entire region. LUCC was more intense in the HRLU areas than in the FLU areas during the entire period (1978–1998). Policy was a key factor in the land use change, and water resources were a precondition in land use. Under the control of policy and water resources, the main human driving factors included population and economy, and the main natural restrictions were soil fertility and groundwater depth. Human driving factors controlled the land change in the HRLU areas, but natural restriction factors dominated in the FLU areas. In the mean time, intensification of LUCC in the region had some spatiotemporal implications with a fluctuation of impact factors. 相似文献
One concern of agriculturalists when regarding climate change involves the effects on pest populations. Climate change may allow pest migration or population expansions which may adversely affect agricultural productivity, profitability and possibly even viability. We examine the effect of current climate variations on the average and variability of U.S. per acre pesticide costs across the U.S. as a proxy for investigating the consequence for pest populations. Empirically, we find that increases in rainfall increases average per acre pesticide usage costs for corn, cotton, potatoes, soybeans, and wheat while hotter weather increases pesticide costs for corn, cotton, potatoes, and soybeans but decreases the cost for wheat. We also investigated the influence of climate on the variability of pesticide costs. There we find that hotter temperatures increase pesticide cost variance for corn, potatoes, and wheat while decreasing it for soybeans. Rainfall increases cause an increase in cost variability for cotton while decreasing it for corn, potatoes, soybeans, and wheat. 相似文献
Mathematic modeling, established on the basis of physical experiments, is becoming an increasingly important tool in oil and gas migration studies. This technique is based on the observation that hydrocarbon migration tends to take relative narrow pathways. A mathematical model of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation is constructed using the percolation theory. It is then calibrated using physical experimental results, and is tested under a variety of conditions, to understand the applicability of the model in different migration cases. Through modeling, dynamic conditions of large-scale migration pathways within homogeneous formations can be evaluated. Basin-scale hydrocarbon migration pathways and their characteristics are analyzed during the model application to the Chang-8 Member of the Triassic Yanchang Formation in Longdong area of Ordos Basin. In heterogeneous formations, spatial changes in fluid potential determine the direction of secondary migration, and heterogeneity controls the characteristics and geometry of secondary migration pathways.
Following an earlier climatological study of North Pacific Polar Lows by employing dynamical downscaling of NCEP1 reanalysis in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM, the characteristics of Polar Low genesis over the North Pacific under different global warming scenarios are investigated. Simulations based on three scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios were conducted using a global climate model (ECHAM5) and used to examine systematic changes in the occurrence of Polar Lows over the twenty first century. The results show that with more greenhouse gas emissions, global air temperature would rise, and the frequency of Polar Lows would decrease. With sea ice melting, the distribution of Polar Low genesis shows a northward shift. In the scenarios with stronger warming there is a larger reduction in the number of Polar Lows. 相似文献