A spatio-temporal three-dimensional conceptualization and simulation of Dera Ismail Khan alluvial aquifer in visual MODFLOW: a case study from Pakistan

Dera Ismail Khan (DIK) is situated in the Lower Indus Basin of Pakistan. The land use has been changed in the canal command area due to irrigation activities near the Indus River. To check the current status and predict the groundwater levels in the area, the unconfined aquifer has been simulated in Visual MODFLOW for a period of 35 years, i.e., from 1985 to 2020. The 2900-km² area has been modeled with a grid of 500 by 500 m and the depth set to 100 m. The aquifer in the study area has been divided vertically and laterally into three and ten zones, respectively, for the characterization. Water wells and streams were used as the sinks and hydrologic boundaries, respectively. The model was successfully calibrated in steady and the non-steady state. The simulation revealed that the whole simulation can be divided into two phases, i.e., before and after the construction of the Chashma Right Bank Canal (CRBC), whereas the results were summarized in the form of water table depth maps and groundwater budget calculations. To determine the groundwater sustainability, a conjunctive use scenario has been employed to simulate the aquifer dynamics till 2020. The simulation revealed incremental drawdowns till the end.     

Comparative analysis of Lake Urmia and Lake Van water level time series

Recent decline in Lake Urmia water level makes it crucial to consider this issue more seriously. For this purpose, comparison of water level in Lake Urmia with Lake Van in Turkey, which is in relatively similar geographic and climate conditions, can be an effective approach. To follow this objective, trend analysis, regime shift, and coherency analyses are implemented. The results showed negative trend in Lake Urmia water level for the past 20 years, while in Lake Van, the trend is positive. Moreover, correlation of the lake level variations versus the basin rainfall during three common periods, identified by the regime shifts analysis, illustrated a decreasing trend in the correlation. These changes can be attributed to non-climatic factors such as different allocation disciplines in two lake’s catchments. Finally, the coherency analysis showed significant annual and inter-annual frequencies common between the two lake levels. Herein, the short-term period relations are associated with lags, while in long term, they act simultaneously.     

Factors controlling the changes and spatial variability of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Junipers phoenicea</Emphasis> in Jabal Al Akhdar,Libya, using remote sensing and GIS

The Junipers phoenicea, which covers 70 % of the Jabal Al Akhdar (Green Mountain) in Cyrene on the northeast coast of Libya, has deteriorated over large scales. To deal with this problem, the images of the Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) in conjunction with the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) were used to map factors controlling the J. phoenicea mortality using a set of automated algorithms and tools. These factors include altitude, slope, aspect, curvature, drainage pattern, seawater intrusion, and land cover. As a first step, changes of J. phoenicea and land cover during the period from the year 2000 to 2015 were mapped. The results showed a sharp decline in J. phoenicea covering an area of 396 km² (22 %) of the total area. The result also showed that areas at a lower elevation with steep slope and faced to the south and southeast directions have a higher probability of J. phoenicea distribution. The spatial analysis showed a positive correlation between wetness and the intensity of J. phoenicea mortality. The results also show that altitude and slope have the most influencing power on the J. phoenicea morality. This study is of great help for decision makers and agriculture engineers and permits a better understanding of ecological and biomass changes in the Jabal Al Akhdar, Libya, over a regional scale.     

Assessing suitability of rural settlements using an improved technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution

Land suitability assessment is a prerequisite phase in land use planning; it guides toward optimal land use by providing information on the opportunities and constraints involved in the use of a given land area. A geographic information system-based procedure, known as rural settlement suitability evaluation (RSSE) using an improved technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), was adopted to determine the most suitable area for constructing rural settlements in different geographical locations. Given the distribution and independence of rural settlements, a distinctive evaluation criteria system that differed from that of urban suitability was established by considering the level of rural infrastructure services as well as living and working conditions. The unpredictable mutual interference among evaluation factors has been found in practical works. An improved TOPSIS using Mahalanobis distance was applied to solve the unpredictable correlation among the criteria in a suitability evaluation. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses obtained via Monte Carlo simulation were performed to examine the robustness of the model. Daye, a resource-based city with rapid economic development, unsatisfied rural development, and geological environmental problems caused by mining, was used as a case study. Results indicate the following findings: 1) The RSSE model using the improved TOPSIS can assess the suitability of rural settlements, and the suitability maps generated using the improved TOPSIS have higher information density than those generated using traditional TOPSIS. The robustness of the model is improved, and the uncertainty is reduced in the suitability results. 2) Highly suitable land is mainly distributed in the northeast of the study area, and the majority of which is cultivated land, thereby leading to tremendous pressure on the loss of cultivated land. 3) Lastly, 12.54% of the constructive expansion permitted zone and 8.36% of the constructive expansion conditionally permitted zone are situated in an unsuitable area, which indicates that the general planning of Daye lacks the necessary verification of suitability evaluation. Guidance is provided on the development strategy of rural settlement patches to support decision making in general land use planning.