华北地区极端温度MOS预报的季节划分

针对极端温度MOS (Model Output Statistics) 预报中的季节划分问题,通过聚类分析方法以华北地区为例进行试验,在此基础上提出一种新的MOS温度预报方程季节分类方式:2月11日—3月20日和11月5日—12月4日定义为早春晚秋类,5月1日—9月30日定义为夏季类,3月21日—4月30日和10月1日—11月4日定义为晚春早秋类,12月5日—2月10日定义为冬季类。由于上述季节分类与传统的季节划分在3—5月和9—11月时间段存在较大差异,因此利用2009年进行试报,就两种时间分类进行对比分析。检验结果表明:利用新分类方法制作的极端温度MOS预报的整体效果好于传统的季节划分得到MOS极端温度预报效果,说明新的分类方式更适合于极端温度MOS预报。     

Pricing weather index insurance based on artificial controlled experiment: a case study of cold temperature for early rice in Jiangxi,China

The growth of early rice is often threatened by a phenomenon known as Grain Buds Cold, a period of anomalously cold temperatures during the booting and flowering stage. As a high yield loss due to Grain Buds Cold will lead to increasing insurance premiums, quantifying the impact of weather on crop yield is crucial to the design of weather index insurance. In this study, we propose a new approach to the estimation of premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance. A 2-year artificial controlled experiment was utilized to develop logarithmic and linear yield loss models. Additionally, incorporating 51 years of meteorological data, an information diffusion model was used to calculate the probability of different durations of Grain Buds Cold, ranging from 3 to 20 days. The results show that the pure premium rates determined by a logarithmic yield loss model exhibit lower risk and greater efficiency than those determined by a linear yield loss model. The premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance were found to fluctuate between 7.085 and 10.151% at the county level in Jiangxi Province, while the premium rates based on the linear yield loss model were higher (ranging from 7.787 to 11.672%). Compared with common statistical methods, the artificial controlled experiment presented below provides a more robust, reliable and accurate way of analyzing the relationship between yield and a single meteorological factor. At the same time, the minimal data requirements of this experimental approach indicate that this method could be very important in regions lacking historical yield and climate data. Estimating weather index insurance accurately will help farmers address extreme cold weather risk under changing climatic conditions.     

地下水对震源体应力、应变场的影响——以唐山地震为例

通过数值模拟 ,研究渗流场和应力场相互作用 ,了解在震源区地下水对应力场和应变场的影响。结果表明 ,岩石的抗剪强度及摩擦阻力随孔隙压力的增加而降低 ,孔隙压力使应变分布发生变化 ,断层及其附近剪切应力升高。地下水的这些效应可能与地震震源过程有关     

中亚及中国西部侏罗纪沉积盆地的构造特征

侏罗纪是中亚和中国西部地区沉积盆地主要形成时期,这表现在两个方面:(1)先期存在的盆地在此阶段沉积范围持续扩大;(2)形成了许多新的侏罗纪沉积盆地.本文通过对劳亚大陆南部侏罗纪特提斯北带构造特征、诸盆地早-中侏罗世岩相古地理和构造样式的分析,表明中国西部与中亚地区在侏罗纪时虽然都处于新特提斯北部被动大陆边缘,但由于受帕米尔弧向北推挤的影响,以及昆仑构造带与塔拉斯-费尔干纳断裂和阿尔金大型走滑断裂的存在,这两个地区的侏罗纪盆地具有完全不同的构造起因.以塔拉斯-费尔干纳断裂为界,西南侧中亚地区的侏罗纪沉积盆地主要是由新特提斯北部大陆边缘的被动伸展形成;东北侧中国西部的侏罗纪沉积盆地则主要发育于区域性挤压构造背景之下,形成的主要机制是重力陷落.此外,沿塔拉斯-费尔干纳断裂还存在几个侏罗纪的走滑拉分盆地.中国西部与中亚地区侏罗纪盆地的不同成因特征对盆地的比较研究和寻找侏罗系烃源岩都具有重要意义.     

渤海颗粒有机碳与生物硅的分布及来源

海洋碳、硅循环及其相关联的生物地球化学过程是全球环境变化的热点问题,也是海洋科学关心的重要领域。利用2012年5月和11月份对渤海海域的调查结果,对该海域颗粒有机碳和生物硅的分布特征及来源进行了讨论。主要结论为:渤海有机碳以溶解有机碳为主,具有春季高和秋季低的特征;由陆地来源和海洋自生的有机碳组成,且以海洋来源的有机碳为主。渤海生物硅分布具有明显的梯度特征,河流输入同样对其含量的影响较为突出。渤海沉积物中生物硅含量较高,明显高于中国东部陆架海。渤海表层沉积物中生物硅主要是海源的,依次由浮游藻类、植硅体和海绵骨针所构成,其中浮游藻类占62.9%,陆源植硅体占31.1%。渤海沉积物发现了来自于草本植物的植硅体,这说明了陆地产生的植硅体对海洋生物硅的贡献。     

海上固定式平台结构安全储备研究综述

海洋平台长期暴露在海洋环境当中,因此复杂的海上环境载荷以及爆炸、火灾等偶然载荷作用会对平台的安全造成很大的威胁。安全储备概念的提出就是为了对结构的安全性进行量化评价。对现阶段结构安全储备的研究进行分析和总结,为海洋平台结构安全性的定量分析提供思路,从而能够更合理地提高海洋平台结构的安全储备。首先概述了海洋平台方面安全储备的发展过程。综述了结构安全储备方面的相关概念、分类方式、评价标准以及相关的安全储备性能指标。从确定性研究方法和基于概率的研究方法两方面,对海洋平台安全储备研究现状进行对比和总结,并分别列举了构件层次的安全储备和与海洋平台结构相关的RSR和CMR等安全储备指标及研究方法,并提出了一些关于海洋平台结构安全储备研究的问题和思路。     

Phillipsite formation in nephelinitic rocks in response to hydrothermal alteration at Mount Etinde,Cameroon

Fresh nephelinitic rocks and hydrothermally altered rocks at Mount Etinde (Cameroon Volcanic Line, West Africa) have been studied by combined whole rock geochemistry (ICP-MS), mineralogy and mineral chemistry (SEM-EDS, WDS, XRD) techniques. The nephelinites have feldspathoids, clinopyroxene, perovskite and titanomagnetite as the principal minerals in the mode with subsidiary apatite and sphene. The mineralogy of their hydrothermally altered counterparts includes phillipsite, calcite and analcime which are secondary phases developed in response to hydrothermal fluid events. Correspondingly, the bulk rock geochemical data show elevated SiO₂, CaO, Na₂O and K₂O concentrations with increasing alteration and Al₂O₃ and Fe₂O₃ depletion while MgO, MnO and TiO₂ concentrations are largely unaffected. The nephelinites also have high concentrations of LILLE, HFSE and REE and upon hydrothermal alteration they show an enrichment of LREE and MREE over HREE. Phillipsite is the principal alteration mineral in the rocks and it occurs along cracks, vesicles and also forms alteromorphs after feldspathoids. The Ce content of these categories of phillipsite varies. Phillipsite along cracks is richer in Ce while phillipsite associated with calcite has lower Ce concentration and the phillipsite alteromorphs very little or no Ce. Various stages of fluid circulation are proposed hereby to explain the variations in phillipsite generation and composition.     

我国地震地下流体前兆观测的"九五"进展与台站管理体制的改革意向

主要介绍了我国在“九五”期间实施的前兆台站流体测项的数字化中推广的仪器型号、主要性能指标及改造的规模,观测取得的成果及其有待完善的技术问题;简要介绍了我国长江三峡工程诱发地震监测系统中地下水动态监测井网的布设,观测井下地下水特征,数字化观测技术系统及建设的基本结果;最后介绍了流体学科前兆台站分级分类管理的改革意向。     

我国地震地下流体前兆台站现状的调查与分析

系统介绍了我国地震地下流体前兆台站的产权与管理权关系,观测点的井泉类型、观测井深度,观测层类型与地下水物理化学特征,观测项目及仪器类型与运行现状,井房及其供电与通讯条件,观测人员的学历与专业结构、年龄与工龄结构等,为“十五”台站优化与建设方案的制定提供依据。