REXEL: computer aided record selection for code-based seismic structural analysis

In code-based seismic design and assessment it is often allowed the use of real records as an input for nonlinear dynamic analysis. On the other hand, international seismic guidelines, concerning this issue, have been found hardly applicable by practitioners. This is related to both the difficulty in rationally relating the ground motions to the hazard at the site and the required selection criteria, which do not favor the use of real records, but rather various types of spectrum matching signals. To overcome some of these obstacles a software tool for code-based real records selection was developed. REXEL, freely available at the website of the Italian network of earthquake engineering university labs (), allows to search for suites of waveforms, currently from the European Strong-motion Database, compatible to reference spectra being either user-defined or automatically generated according to Eurocode 8 and the recently released new Italian seismic code. The selection reflects the provisions of the considered codes and others found to be important by recent research on the topic. In the paper, record selection criteria are briefly reviewed first, and then the algorithms implemented in the software are discussed. Finally, via some examples, it is shown how REXEL can effectively be a contribution to code-based real records selection for seismic structural analysis.     

Ambient Changes in Tracer Concentrations from a Multilevel Monitoring System in Basalt

Starting in 2008, a 4‐year tracer study was conducted to evaluate ambient changes in groundwater concentrations of a 1,3,6‐naphthalene trisulfonate tracer that was added to drill water. Samples were collected under open borehole conditions and after installing a multilevel groundwater monitoring system completed with 11 discrete monitoring zones within dense and fractured basalt and sediment layers in the eastern Snake River aquifer. The study was done in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy to test whether ambient fracture flow conditions were sufficient to remove the effects of injected drill water prior to sample collection. Results from thief samples indicated that the tracer was present in minor concentrations 28 days after coring, but was not present 6 months after coring or 7 days after reaming the borehole. Results from sampling the multilevel monitoring system indicated that small concentrations of the tracer remained in 5 of 10 zones during some period after installation. All concentrations were several orders of magnitude lower than the initial concentrations in the drill water. The ports that had remnant concentrations of the tracer were either located near sediment layers or were located in dense basalt, which suggests limited groundwater flow near these ports. The ports completed in well‐fractured and vesicular basalt had no detectable concentrations.     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo Volcano,DRC

Mt. Nyiragongo is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world for the risk associated with the propagation of lava flows. In 2002 several vents opened along a huge system of fractures, pouring out lava which reached and destroyed a considerable part of Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants on the shore of Lake Kivu. In a companion paper (Favalli et al. in Bull Volcanol, this issue, 2008) we employed numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths to evaluate the lava flow hazard on the flanks of the volcano, including the neighbouring towns of Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda). In this paper we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of significantly reducing the lava flow hazard in the city through the construction of protective barriers. These barriers are added to the DEM of the area as additional morphological elements, and their effect is evaluated by repeating numerical simulations with and without the presence of barriers. A parametric study on barrier location, size, shape and orientation led to the identification of barriers which maximize protection while minimizing their impact. This study shows that the highest hazard area corresponding to eastern Goma, which was largely destroyed by lava flows in 2002, cannot be effectively protected from future lava flows towards Lake Kivu and should be abandoned. On the contrary, the rest of the town can be sheltered from lava flows by means of two barriers that deviate or contain the lava within the East Goma sector. A proposal for the future development of the town is formulated, whereby “new” Goma is completely safe from the arrival of lava flows originating from vents outside its boundaries. The proposal minimizes the risk of further destruction in town due to future lava flows.     

Effectiveness of a market-based instrument for the allocation of water in a tropical river environment

The seasonal nature of Australia’s tropical rivers means that connected groundwater aquifers are an important source of both consumptive and non-consumptive water, particularly during the dry season. The management of these common pool groundwater resources is one of the predominant water issues facing northern Australia. A national program of water reform stipulates the expansion of water trading as a key instrument for water allocation. The effectiveness of new institutional arrangements such as water markets will be determined mostly by how well they coordinate with local environmental requirements, local institutions and local norms. This paper describes a novel application of combined field work, institutional analysis, experimental economics and agent-based modeling to the analysis of a potential water market in the Katherine region of the Northern Territory, Australia. The effectiveness of different versions of the policy instrument is assessed in light of local conditions. Instruments that enable personal relationships and local institutions and norms to play a role in water management are found to be more effective in terms of both farming income and environmental impact.     

Data reporting norms for 40Ar/39Ar geochronology

Data reported in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology studies are commonly insufficient to allow computation of ages. This deficiency renders it difficult to compare ages based on different standards or constants, and often hinders critical evaluation of the results. Herein are presented an enumeration of the data that should be reported in all ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar studies, including a discussion in support of these requirements. The minimum required data are identified and distinguished from parameters that are useful but may be derived from them by calculation. Finally, recommendations are made for metadata needed to document age calculations (e.g., from age spectrum or isochron analyses).     

A proposal for comparing the reliabilities of alternative seismic hazard models

Differences between statistical unertainty and modeling uncertainty are briefly discussed. It is pointed out that, when different models are proposed for the interpretation of reality, the uncertainty cannot be described in terms of mean value and coefficient of variation. The important question is: which of the proposed models is more reliable than the others? The attention, then, is concentrated on the comparison between different models proposed for the estimate of the required quantity, looking for a criterion leading to the selection of the most reliable one. A criterion for comparison of different models is suggested. In the example of application considered in this paper, it proved to be effective, so that the continuation of numerical experiments, exploring different and more complex situations, seems promising.     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment II: application of strong ground motion simulations

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability. We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M _w  = 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances <50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis.     

Specific features of explosive plasma flows in the near-earth space

The analytical expressions for determining the deceleration region of plasma, produced during large-scale geophysical experiments of explosion type, and taking into account the effect of the rarefied ionosphere and geomagnetic field have been obtained. The possibility of the magnetosphere braking by plasma produced by a powerful explosion is analyzed. The simplified set of equations used to analyze the linear and non-linear stages of flute instability of explosive plasma expanding into the magnetic field has been obtained. The mass overflow between flutes and the viscous force is taken into account. The experimental studies of flute instability during laser plasma expansion into the magnetic field are theoretically substantiated. The mechanism explaining the formation of a jet stream and the main jet inclination of 11° with respect to the axis of symmetry has been proposed.