美国对伊朗石油禁运与全球能源安全

2018年6月美国针对伊朗启动了史上最严厉的石油禁运政策,要求所有国家于11月停止从伊朗进口石油,否则相关国家和企业都将面临美国的经济制裁,并无意给予任何国家豁免权。当前,中国、日本、韩国、印度和欧盟等世界重要的石油进口国已经做出回应,除中国明确拒绝美国的单边制裁继续保持与伊朗的石油贸易外,其他主要石油进口国都大量削减从伊朗的石油进口。沙特阿拉伯等石油生产国也承诺通过石油增产来维护全球能源市场的稳定,以支持美国对伊朗的制裁。在经济全球化的大趋势下,美国对伊朗的石油禁运,势必引发全球能源市场的动荡,改变全球石油政治格局以及相关利益方的石油权益。这些方面会涉及到全球油价的波动、不同国家的石油安全与应对政策、世界能源贸易稳定与地缘政治格局的变动等。长期关注能源地缘政治的专家学者围绕美国对伊朗的石油禁运可能产生的影响发表观点,专家们认为美国此举是战略两难的困境,短期内对将会引起世界石油短缺及油价波动,甚至可能导致OPEC减产协议崩溃,改变世界主要进口国的进口规模以及来源结构,但对世界石油市场的长期影响有限。伊朗将寻求打折出售原油、替代港口出口以及多元化出口3条生存路径,目前最大的隐患是伊朗或将封锁霍尔木兹海峡,但是此举目前可能性不大。伊朗石油禁运具有长期性和复杂性,对中国既是机遇也是挑战,中国在“一带一路”倡议下与伊朗保持正常的石油贸易是双赢的选择,但需要谨慎对待由此引发的能源地缘政治的风险,提升能源安全应对的措施。期待各方观点对伊朗石油禁运引发的能源地缘政治格局以及中国的能源安全的解析,能够为相关政策制定者提供理论借鉴。     

政府规制下生态发展区精细化工产业 生态化发展路径——以韶关市涂料产业为例

基于产业链和产业生态化的理论视角,以粤北山区国家重点生态发展区县（市）涂料化工产业为例,研究广东省产业转移政策下转移到生态发展区的污染性产业生态化发展路径。结果发现,在污染性产业环境管制和生态发展区产业准入负面清单双重政策规制下,韶关市涂料化工企业普遍面临改造升级或淘汰关闭的命运。文章从政府、园区和企业3个层次构建产业可持续发展的生态化路径,强调产业生态化进程中政府的主体地位,提出改革和完善生态政策规制体系,实施生态化激励机制和产业准入负面清单的精细化管理机制,规范和引导企业/园区行为并主动参与产业生态化实践,推动生态发展区产业生态化发展等建议。     

载波相位约束整周模糊度在短基线RTK中的应用

针对单历元RTK定位中受到卫星升起、周跳频发等外界条件干扰时,整周模糊度长时间不能固定,严重影响RTK定位实时精度的问题。文中提出一种用载波相位约束整周模糊度的方法来提高模糊度固定率、Ratio值和解算精度,并且结合GPS单系统、GPS/GLONASS双系统两组实测数据进行未加入和加入载波相位约束整周模糊度的比较实验。结果表明该方法可行。     

柴达木盆地西部古近系干柴沟组页岩储层特征

岩心观察和岩石薄片鉴定显示,柴达木盆地西部古近系干柴沟组存在层状-非层状泥页岩、层状-非层状灰质泥页岩、泥灰岩、层状-非层状粉砂质泥岩和泥质粉砂岩5种岩相。总有机质含量（TOC）为0.2%~1.4%,有机质以Ⅱ型干酪根为主,普遍处于成熟阶段。泥页岩矿物成分以碎屑石英和粘土矿物为主,并含有不等量的方解石、白云石、长石、黄铁矿等;发育原生孔隙、有机质生烃形成的孔隙、次生溶蚀孔隙、粘土矿物伊利石化体积缩小形成的微孔隙及微裂缝5种页岩气储集空间类型。研究表明,储集空间发育主要受岩相类型、矿物成分、成岩作用、有机碳含量和有机质成熟度的影响。虽然研究区泥页岩中有机质含量普遍较低,但有机质普遍处于成熟阶段,储层中发育多种储集空间类型,并富含脆性矿物和富伊利石的粘土矿物。因此,柴达木盆地西部干柴沟组泥页岩为良好的页岩气储集层,具有一定的页岩气勘探前景。     

Pyrite Surface after ThiobaciUusferrooxidans Leaching at 30℃

In order to investigate the effect of Thiobacillusferrooxidans on the oxidation of pyrite, two parallel experiments, which employed H2SO4 solutions and acidic solutions inoculated with ThiobaciUus ferrooxidans, were designed and carried out at 30℃. The initial pH of the two solutions was adjusted to 2.5 by dropwise addition of concentrated sulphuric acid. The surfaces of pyrite before exposure to leaching solutions and after exposure to the H2SO4 solutions and acidic solutions inoculated with Thiobacillus ferrooxidans were observed by scanning electron microscopy （SEM）. There were a variety of erosion patterns by Thiobacillusferrooxidans on the bio-leached pyrite surfaces. A conclusion can be drawn that the oxidation of pyrite might have been caused by erosion of the surfaces. Attachment of the bacteria to pyrite surfaces resulted in erosion pits, leading to the oxidation of pyrite. It is possible that the direct mechanism plays the most important role in the oxidation of pyrite. The changes in iron ion concentrations of both the experimental solutions with time suggest that ThiobaciUus ferrooxidans can enhance greatly the oxidation of pyrite.     

Spatio-temporal variations and influencing factors of energy-related carbon emissions for Xinjiang cities in China based on time-series nighttime light data

This essay combines the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System(DMSP-OLS) nighttime light data and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite(VIIRS) nighttime light data into a “synthetic DMSP” dataset, from 1992 to 2020,to retrieve the spatio-temporal variations in energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang,China. Then, this paper analyzes several influencing factors for spatial differentiation of carbon emissions in Xinjiang with the application of geographical...     

Love数的当代理论和新技术分析

关于旋转椭滞弹性地球的潮汐模型,已有了很完备的理论。地球横向不均匀和各向异性的理论也初见倪。随着新技术的发展,可以对地球内部的一些物理参数进行检测。     

粤港澳大湾区协同发展水平的测度及评估

在充分理解粤港澳大湾区城市群协同发展科学内涵的基础上,从产业协同创新、环境协同治理、服务协同共享和制度协同安排4个维度构建协同发展评价指标体系,综合运用“流”空间、大数据、网络分析和联锁网络模型等理论与方法,对城市之间的相互关系、流动性、连通性和边界效应进行量化分析。结果表明：1）城市之间的资本流动集中在广深之间,城市之间的知识流动集中在香港、广州和深圳之间;澳门、珠海、中山和江门等城市之间的环境协同治理水平更高,深莞惠和广佛等城市之间的环境协同治理水平稍差;广佛、广深、深莞等城市之间交通、通信、物流和银行等基础设施的服务协同共享水平更高;香港和澳门在跨境区域协同方面具有制度优势。2）粤港澳大湾区协同发展水平表现最优的是广州与深圳、广州与佛山、深圳与东莞、香港与深圳;同时,广州与东莞、深圳与佛山呈现联动趋势。虽然去边界化趋势明显,城市间流动性增强,但是粤港澳大湾区协同发展水平总体不高。3）广州和深圳两座中心城市的协同能力最强,香港和澳门两座国际化城市的协同能力仍有很大提升空间。     

Freshening of the intermediate water of the South China Sea between the 1960s and the 1980s

Variation in intermediate water salinity in the South China Sea (SCS) between the 1960s and 1980s was studied using historical hydrographic data. The results demonstrate that the water was significantly fresher in the 1980s than in the 1960s, indicating that vertical mixing at intermediate water depth was reduced in the 1980s. This was partially because of the change of the SCS meridional overturning circulation (MOC) connecting local intermediate water with deep water. Data assimilation showed a 0.5Sv (1 Sv=10 6m 3/s) reduction in the strength of the MOC, which is about one third of the mean SCS MOC. Because the SCS MOC is linked to the Pacific Ocean, such an interdecadal variation in the intermediate water SCS may reflect anthropogenic climate change in the world ocean.