Distinguishing streamflow trends caused by changes in climate,forest cover,and permafrost in a large watershed in northeastern China

Understanding how rivers respond to changes in land cover, climate, and subsurface conditions is critical for sustainably managing water resources and ecosystems. In this study, long‐term hydrologic, climate, and satellite data (1973–2012) from the Upper Tahe River watershed (2359 km²) in the Da Hinggan Mountains of northeast China were analysed to quantify the relative hydrologic effects of climate variability (system input) and the combined influences of forest cover change and permafrost thaw (system characteristics) on average annual streamflow (system response) using 2 methods: the sensitivity‐based method and the Kendall–Theil robust line method. The study period was subdivided into a forest harvesting period (1973–1987), a forest stability period (1988–2001), and a forest recovery period (2002–2012). The results indicated that the combined effects of forest harvesting and permafrost thaw on streamflow (+ 47.0 mm) from the forest harvesting period to the forest stability period was approximately twice as large as the effect associated with climate variability (+20.2 mm). Similarly, from the forest stability period to the forest recovery period, the decrease in average annual streamflow attributed to the combined effects of forest recovery and permafrost thaw (?38.0 mm) was much greater than the decrease due to climate variability (?22.2 mm). A simple method was used to separate the distinct impacts of forest cover change and permafrost thaw, but distinguishing these influences is difficult due to changes in surface and subsurface hydrologic connectivity associated with permafrost thaw. The results highlight the need to consider multiple streamflow drivers in future watershed and aquatic ecosystem management. Due to the ecological and hydrological susceptibility to disturbances in the Da Hinggan Mountains, forest harvesting will likely negatively impact ecohydrological processes in this region, and the effects of forest species transition in the forest recovery process should be further investigated.     

An empirical ensemble rainfall nowcasting model using multi-scaled analogues

Natural Hazards - Short-term rainfall prediction with high spatial and temporal resolution is of great importance to rainfall-triggered natural hazards such as landslide, flood, and debris flow. An...     

Increasingly important role of numerical modeling in oceanic observation design strategy: A review

Science China Earth Sciences - Oceanic observation design is of considerable significance and has made remarkable progress during the past several decades. This study addresses the critical role of...     

云南地区断层形变群体异常与成组强震

运用前兆综合信息量S、前兆群体非均匀度ID以及近源异常凸现值NS的数学分析这三种方法，对云南地区1982～2004年跨断层短基线短水准资料进行了分析处理．结果表明，在云南地区Ms≥6强震前断层彤变群体异常显著，尤其是成组强震前，群体异常信息较为丰富。     

三江源地区土壤侵蚀特点

三江源地区地域辽阔,土壤侵蚀复杂多样.近年来土壤侵蚀加剧,生态环境严重退化.以2000年土壤侵蚀调查的数据成果为基数.并与更新后的2005年数据成果比较,进行土壤侵蚀动态变化分析.对三江源地区不同类型土壤侵蚀区的土壤侵蚀现状做了较全面的分区评价.同时对作为典型区域的黄河源头区12个县的2000年1:10万Landsat 5 TIM假彩色合成影像,通过野外调查建它解译标志来分析该区植被覆盖状况,对该区典型区域的土壤侵蚀现状做了定量评价.根据评价结果,对三江源地区土壤侵蚀的发展趋势做了预测.     

川东北飞仙关组鲕粒特征与水动力相关性研究

早三叠世鲕粒在全球范围内广泛发育,且出现巨鲕。川东北飞仙关组台缘鲕粒滩非均质性强,鲕粒类型复杂。选择川东北龙潭村、莱溪及鱼洞子剖面进行野外实测、镜下鉴定及粒度分析,对鲕粒类型及粒度参数演化与水动力相关性进行研究。研究发现川东北飞仙关组发育7种原生沉积鲕粒,9种后生改造成因鲕粒,其中后生改造成因的破碎鲕可进一步细分。除偏度外,平均粒径、标准偏差、峰度等粒度参数及粒度资料图解曲线形态具有很强的相关性,与鲕粒类型结合判断龙潭村鲕粒滩由活动边缘带转变为稳定鲕粒砂坪沉积,水动力逐渐减小;莱溪呈活动边缘带—稳定鲕粒砂坪—活动边缘带沉积旋回,水动力先减小再增大;鱼洞子向上水动力逐渐减小。但含巨鲕的层位与整体的鲕粒类型及粒度变化趋势相关性较差,这可能是由于巨鲕异常大的粒径形成主要受微生物作用和海水碳酸盐岩饱和度的快速增大复合影响,而非水动力快速变化。因此,在利用粒度参数判断具有巨鲕发育的沉积环境水动力条件时,不能简单地凭借粒度便做出结论,需对鲕粒粒度参数进行相关性分析,去除相关性较差的样品数据。     

基于循环加卸载的矿物定向排列致各向异性岩石损伤演化规律——以黑云母石英片岩为例

围岩冻融损伤劣化加剧了寒区隧道衬砌结构破坏,为探究新疆高寒隧道强风化炭质板岩围岩冻融损伤劣化规律及各向异性特征,制取层理倾角θ=0°、45°、90° 3种板岩试样,在开放饱水的条件下进行了0次、10次、20次、30次、40次冻融循环试验,并对冻融循环后的试样进行宏观力学性能试验及断裂面扫描电镜测试。结果表明：在冻融循环作用下,强风化板岩的冻融损伤多集中于节理裂隙等软弱结构处,损伤模式主要为顺层理裂隙萌生、顺层理剥落及顺层理断裂,板岩自然饱和质量呈现先缓慢增加后迅速递减的趋势;不同层理倾角板岩强度特征差异较大且受风化作用与冻融循环作用影响显著,伴随着冻融循环次数的增加,板岩抗压强度、弹性模量均呈现非线性衰减趋势,冻融受荷损伤变量逐渐增大,3种层理倾角板岩抵抗冻融损伤作用的关系为0°＞90°＞45°;扫描电镜图像观察到板岩层理断裂表现出显著的脆性特征,但多次的冻融循环作用使板岩受荷破坏破裂面表现出一定的塑性特征。研究发现倾角为0°层理构造的板岩受冻融环境的影响相对较小,具有更加稳定的力学性质,研究揭示了强风化定向层理板岩各向异性冻融损伤劣化规律,可为定向产状结构围岩背景下的寒区隧道工程冻害风险评估提供参考。     

GIS支持下应用PSO-SVM模型预测滑坡易发性

地质灾害不仅造成了严重的经济损失和生态破坏,同时也威胁着人类的生存。地质灾害易发性评价是地质灾害风险评价的基础,以往的研究中重在探讨易发性评价方法的选取,而对于地质灾害易发性指数如何分级的研究较少。为了探索地质灾害易发性评价精度验证与定量的分级标准,以四川省汶川县为例,选取12种广泛应用的地质灾害易发性影响因子,运用信息量模型进行易发性评价,运用成功率曲线检验模型的评价精度,提出历史地质灾害累计比例分段法,并与其他8种分级方法进行对比分析与分级精度验证。研究结果表明,用验证样本成功率曲线与非灾害点样本成功率曲线两种方法检验模型评价精度确定了评价模型预测结果的合理性。历史地质灾害累计比例分段法在易发性分级面积比例精度验证、地质灾害频率比分级精度验证与发生地质灾害位置分级精度验证3种方式中均显现出较好的合理性,在9种分级方法中为最优分级标准。     

含盐地层工程性能及其对铁路工程施工的影响

含盐地层作为一类特殊的工程地质体,其工程性能具有易变性,各向异性以及冻胀性等特点,由于含盐地层中含有易溶盐,土体的物理力学性质因环境因素如气修、地下水和受力性质的改变而发生明显的变化,而且对修建于其构筑物具有腐蚀性,本文以穿越罕尔汗盐湖的青藏铁路路基基底地层和盐渍地为研究对象,对盐湖岩盐和周边地区盐渍土层清土层的工程地质性质进行研究,通过对含盐地层基本工程性能的系统研究,归纳出在通过含盐地层时,铁路对含盐地层基本工程性能的系统研究,归纳出在通过含盐地层时,铁路工程施工应该注意的事项,以保证工程项目的长期稳定性。