Professional conduct of scientists during volcanic crises

Stress during volcanic crises is high, and any friction between scientists can distract seriously from both humanitarian and scientific effort. Friction can arise, for example, if team members do not share all of their data, if differences in scientific interpretation erupt into public controversy, or if one scientist begins work on a prime research topic while a colleague with longer-standing investment is still busy with public safety work. Some problems arise within existing scientific teams; others are brought on by visiting scientists. Friction can also arise between volcanologists and public officials. Two general measures may avert or reduce friction: (a) National volcanologic surveys and other scientific groups that advise civil authorities in times of volcanic crisis should prepare, in advance of crises, a written plan that details crisis team policies, procedures, leadership and other roles of team members, and other matters pertinent to crisis conduct. A copy of this plan should be given to all current and prospective team members. (b) Each participant in a crisis team should examine his or her own actions and contribution to the crisis effort. A personal checklist is provided to aid this examination. Questions fall generally in two categories: Are my presence and actions for the public good? Are my words and actions collegial, i.e., courteous, respectful, and fair? Numerous specific solutions to common crisis problems are also offered. Among these suggestions are: (a) choose scientific team leaders primarily for their leadership skills; (b) speak publicly with a single scientific voice, especially when forecasts, warnings, or scientific disagreements are involved; (c) if you are a would-be visitor, inquire from the primary scientific team whether your help would be welcomed, and, in general, proceed only if the reply is genuinely positive; (d) in publications, personnel evaluations, and funding, reward rather than discourage teamwork. Models are available from the fields of particle physics and human genetics, among others.     

Comprehensive Approaches to Earthquake Prediction

There may be various anomalies from fields of multi-discipline before large earthquakes, including seismological anomalies and the anomalous changes in crustal deformation, underground fluids, geochemistry, geomagnetic fields, ground resistivity, etc. Precursors of a single discipline only reflect the process of earthquake preparation from one aspect. Only when various precursors from multi-disciplined fields are put into a unified process of earthquake preparation can the process be understood and identified comprehensively. The comprehensive methods used in earthquake prediction are outlined in this paper. The relationship that the forthcoming main shock bears with the precursory features such as the time-space distribution, the order of the precursors, etc. is analyzed. Research shows that a few of the main shocks can be predicted with the comprehensive methods to some extent.     

Empirical Approaches to Earthquake Prediction: A Brief Review of the Practice and Research in China

This paper gives a brief review of some progress in the research and practice of earthquake prediction in China in terms of the study of strong earthquake cases in three disciplines of precursory means: crust deformation and strain, underground fluid dynamics, and geoelectro-magnettsm, summarized in the past 30-odd years. All the progress, however, shows that the research of earthquake prediction in China is still in the empirical stage of its development. The main tasks in this stage would involve the following aspects: (1) accumulating earthquake cases, particularly the cases of strong earthquakes with a wide variety of reliable precursory data observed by fixed or mobile networks of different disciplines; and (2) studying the physical mechanism of observational means in more detail and the synthetic model of earthquake preparation based on the theoretical and laboratory researches as well as the data of in-situ observation.     

An Overview of Seismicity in China

This paper gives an overview of seismicity in China, including large-scale seismicity heterogeneity in space-time, aftershock activity, b-value, earthquake mechanism, and its possible mechanics.     

The Tectonic Feature of a Quasi-Trij unction in the Northeastern Corner of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

Quasi-trijunction is a type of popular structure for certain scale tectonic blocks in a continent. There are two kinds of quasi-trijunction in the conjoining area formed due to rotation of continental blocks. They are the clockwise type and the anticlockwise type of quasi-trij unction. The shape of a quasi-trij unction may be gradually changed associated with block rotation and tectonic evolution, but, sediments and structure in the conjoining area can record the history of tectonic evolution. Thus, studying a quasi-trij unction can reveal regional tectonic evolution.Regional tectonic movement, plane strain partitioning and characteristics of seismic activity can be studied based on kinematics and geometric analysis of a quasi-trijunction.The quasi-trijunction is a surface structure controlled by deep crustal movement. Tectonic activity may be different in three branches. In the quasi-trijunction in the northeastern corner of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, the NWW-trending Qilianshan-Hexi corridor fault zone w     

A Bayesian Approach to Seismic Hazard Estmation: Maximum Values of Magnitudes and Peak Ground Accelerations

Earthquake Researeh in Ch一na461 .METHODLet R be some value measured or estimated as a sequenee ina’‘Past”time interval(一丁,O)(I)万‘月,=(RI,…,R。),R,之R。,R=nlaX l二f匕11(RI,…,R,,) Values(l)eould have an arbitrary Physieal nature.BelowweshalleonsiderEq.(l)asearthquakemagnitudes in a given seismic aetive region or logarithms of seismie Peak ground aeeelerations at习given site.Ro isa而nimum eutoff value;it 15 defined by Possibilities of registration systems or wasehosen as the …     

On the Relationship Between the Crustal Strain Rate and Seismicity:Detect the Source-Field Relation from the Crustal Strain Field

The relationship between the strain cumulative rate (i.e., the crustal strain rate, or CSR in short) and seismic activity is analyzed to develop a new method to determine risky regions for strong shocks within recent years by the recorded crustal strain field. Seismic activity, especially the recurrence period, is different in different areas. Ding Guoyu (1984) pointed out that, for different seismic regions, the difference in the recurrence period of strong earthquakes is mainly controlled by their difference in the rate of the tectonic movement, which is controlled by the seismogenic environment and the tectonic conditions. The method of determining the risky regions for strong shocks from the gradient of vertical strain rates observed in a geodetic survey is preliminarily tested with the earthquakes in recent years; the results show that this method is effective and useful for earthquake prediction. The relationship between CSR and seismicity in a specific region is studied with strain theories, obse     

The Crust-Mantle Structure in Zhangbei-Shangyi Earthquake Area

The seismic data obtained from the wide angle reflection and refraction profiles that pass through Zhangjiakou area of Hebei Province were interpreted. Some conclusions drawn from the result are as follows: (1) The nearly EW-trending Zhangbei-Chongli crustal fault zone and WNW-trending Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea deep crustal fault zone meet in the Zhangbei earthquake (Ms = 6.2) area; (2) At the intersection, the two deep crustal fault zones that stretch to the Moho and the discontinuities of interfaces within the crust form the path for large area basalt eruption in Hannuoba; (3) In the earthquake area, the local velocity reversal in the middle-upper crust and abnormal low velocity zone in the lower crust imply that the magmatic activity there is still fairly violent; and (4) The recent activity of Zhangjiakou-Bohai Sea deep crustal fault zone may be the main cause of the Zhangbei earthquake.     

用INSAR作地面沉降监测的试验研究

介绍了合成孔径雷达干涉测量进行天津市地区地面沉降监测的试验。对于试验区域，原始资料选取的原则，剪裁出的试验区域的影像进行InSAR处理都作了简要的说明，最后将利用D－InSAR得到的天津市区的地面沉降监测结果与水准测量的监测结果进行了对比，并据此得到一些初步认识。