青藏块体及周缘潜在震源与强震关系研究

利用1993－1999、1999－2001年青藏块体东北以及1991－2000年中国大陆GPS水平运动年速率资料，基于单一力源模型，反演获得了青藏块体及其周缘地区2000－2001年10次地震的震前资料反映的潜在震源参数，所得力源中心位置距实际震中的距离相对较小，其中2000年景泰5．9、2001年宁蒗5．8、昆仑8．1及格尔木3次5．7、5．8级地震均在50km左右；2000年兴海6．6、2001年年施甸5．9、永胜6．0级地震不到100km；2001年雅江6．0级地震最远（121km）。此外，1999－2001年青藏块体东北缘地区的反演结果表明，沿东昆仑构造带的昆仑山口－达日及库玛断裂向东至甘东南、甘青交界区域，可能仍存在潜在震源。     

THE START AND EARLY HISTORY OF CHEMOMETRICS:SELECTED INTERVIEWS.PART 2

This is a first foray into the historical start and early years of chemometrics from about 1972 onwards.We have gathered interviews with three originators(Kowalski,Wold and Massart)as well as with aselected group of six other well-known chemometricians who gradually became active in the 1970s(Christie,Clementi,Hopke,Martens,Brown and Deming).The interviews include amongst a host ofsubjective recollections a succinct record of the key historical literature as highlighted by the interviewees'own rankings of‘earliest’and‘best’.A discussion of the most general commonalities in these interviews together with other historicalmaterial is presented in the second part of the paper.     

THREE-WAY METHODS FOR THE CALIBRATION OF CHROMATOGRAPHIC SYSTEMS:COMPARING PARAFAC AND THREE-WAY PLS

For the calibration of chromatographic systems,different methods can be used.One class of methodsutilizes three-way approaches.The calibration problem is stated in such a way that the decompositionof a three-way array can serve for the prediction of retention on new stationary phases.Two three-way approaches are presented:the Unfold-PCA and PARAFAC models.The theory ofboth methods is presented and the differences are highlighted,the main difference being that PARAFACis a trilinear decomposition whereas Unfold-PCA is not.Both three-way methods are evaluated on asmall data set consisting of retention measurements of eight solutes at six mobile phase compositions onsix stationary phases.The differences in performance of the two models are minor,For calibration purposes,two variants of the methods are discussed:three-way PLS and an extensionof PARAFAC.Again the theory and differences between the two methods are explained.The predictiveperformance of the two methods is compared using the same data set as earlier.The differences inpredictive performance,however,are minor.Both methods are capable of predicting 98% of thevariation in the test sets.Yet,there are other considerations when comparing methods than predictiveperformance,e.g.the quality of the predictions.     

腾冲火山区地表垂直形变分析

对腾冲火山区1998～2000年的3期垂直形变资料进行了分析，进而利用相关资料得出与计算有关的参数，再用多元Mogi模型反演了岩浆房的位置和大小，所得出的结果与地震层析反演结果基本相似。分析反演结果，认为火山区可能存在多个岩浆房，并有岩脉相通。     

1986年2月4日太阳耀斑的演化研究

本文根据乌鲁木齐天文站的H_α耀斑及3.2cm射电流量观侧资料、云南天文台的黑子精细结构照相和Marshall Space Flight Center的向量磁场图,对1986年2月4日的六个耀斑的形态相关及演化联系,特别是0736UT 4B/3X大耀斑的发展过程进行了综合分析。主要结果是: 1.4日大耀斑的初始亮点和闪光相的主要形态演化,与活动区中沿中性线新浮现的强大电流/磁环系密切相关。后者的主要标志是沿中性线的长的剪切半影纤维及它两端的偶极旋涡黑子群(1_3F_3)。 2.上述大耀斑与1972年8月4日0624 UT大耀斑爆发的磁场背景及主要形态特征相似,表明两者的储能和触发机制可能相同。 3.大耀斑爆发的H_α初始亮点,双带出现,环系形成,亮物质抛射和吸收冕珥等现象同3.2cm射电流量的变化在时间上有较好的对应关系。 4.重复性的前期小耀斑爆发位置和发展趋势与大耀斑的主要形态及演化特征相似。它们相对于剪切的纵场中性线两侧的位置相近或相同。因而,可以看作上述强大电流/磁环系不稳性发展过程中的前置小爆发。     

月际地震趋势的数值预测法

考虑到目前地震月趋势以模糊用语进行预测的缺陷,本文提出采用数值预测法能更好地适应社会需求. 这种方法是基于地震有自律现象,通过建立非线性的数学模型予以实现的. 模型试验结果表明,我国大陆地震活动存在有7~8个月左右的循环结构,逐月比较预测与实况的震级误差平均低于0.2级,因而该方法比经验性预报更适宜社会的实际利用.      

REE Characteristics of the Kalatongke Cu-Ni Deposit, Xinjiang, China

On the basis of the study on the REE geochemistry of the ore minerals and host rocks of the Kalatongke Cu-Ni deposit, Xinjiang, it is indicated that the major ore minerals, sulfides, were sourced from the host mafic-ultramafic magma. Characterized by low REE content of sulfide, such a Cu-Ni sulfide deposit occurring in the orogen is obviously different from that on the margin of the craton. Because the mafic-ultramafic rocks from the Cu-Ni sulfide deposit occurring in the orogen is water-rich and the REEs of some sulfides show a particular "multiple-bending" pattern, which suggests coexistence of multiple liquid phases (fluid and melt), the sulfide melt possibly contains a great deal of hydrothermal fluids and increasingly developed gases and liquid-rich ore-forming fluids after the main metallogenic epoch (magmatic segregation stage).     

Simulations of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation by the Atmospheric General Circulation Model of the Beijing Climate Center

The performance of BCC (Beijing Climate Center) AGCM 2.0.1 (Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.0.1) in simulating the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TIO) is examined in this paper.The simulations are validated against observation and compared with the NCAR CAM3 (Community Atmosphere Model version 3) results.The BCC AGCM2.0.1 is developed based on the original BCC AGCM (version 1) and NCAR CAM3.New reference atmosphere and reference pressure are introduced into the model.Therefore,the origi...     

What Kind of Initial Errors Cause the Severest Prediction Uncertainty of El Nino in Zebiak-Cane Model

With the Zebiak-Cane(ZC)model,the initial error that has the largest effect on ENSO prediction is explored by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP).The results demonstrate that CNOP-type errors cause the largest prediction error of ENSO in the ZC model.By analyzing the behavior of CNOP- type errors,we find that for the normal states and the relatively weak El Nino events in the ZC model,the predictions tend to yield false alarms due to the uncertainties caused by CNOP.For the relatively strong El Nino events,the ZC model largely underestimates their intensities.Also,our results suggest that the error growth of El Nino in the ZC model depends on the phases of both the annual cycle and ENSO.The condition during northern spring and summer is most favorable for the error growth.The ENSO prediction bestriding these two seasons may be the most diffcult.A linear singular vector(LSV)approach is also used to estimate the error growth of ENSO,but it underestimates the prediction uncertainties of ENSO in the ZC model.This result indicates that the different initial errors cause different amplitudes of prediction errors though they have same magnitudes.CNOP yields the severest prediction uncertainty.That is to say,the prediction skill of ENSO is closely related to the types of initial error.This finding illustrates a theoretical basis of data assimilation.It is expected that a data assimilation method can filter the initial errors related to CNOP and improve the ENSO forecast skill.     

黄山大气气溶胶微观特性的观测研究

根据2008年4—7月黄山大气气溶胶观测资料,研究了气溶胶粒子的数浓度、谱分布特征及其与气象因子的关系,探讨了雾天和非雾天气溶胶颗粒物时间和尺度分布特点。分析发现,黄山光明顶春、夏季大气气溶胶数浓度的平均值分别为3.14×103个/cm3和1.80×103个/cm3,其中超细粒子(粒径小于0.1μm的粒子)在春夏季分别约占总粒子数浓度的79%和68%;高数浓度值集中在粒径0.04～0.12μm;积聚模态气溶胶粒子(0.1～1.0μm)在体积浓度分布和表面积分布中占很大比例。结合气象资料比较了雾天与非雾天气溶胶分布的差异,发现细粒子浓度非雾天大于雾天,而气溶胶数浓度与温度呈正相关,与相对湿度成反相关。结果还发现,黄山在春季以西北风和偏南风为主,西北风时气溶胶数浓度较高,在夏季主要以偏南风,特别是西南风为主,但是气溶胶数浓度的高值多发生在偏东风的条件下。