Times of sand: Sedimentary history and archaeology at the Sigatoka Dunes,Fiji

The orthodox archaeological sequence at the Sigatoka Dunes site (VL 16/1) in Fiji proposes three phases of occupation spanning Fijian prehistory, each associated with a period of dune stability. It has been taken as the standard model of Fijian prehistory for more than 30 years. Recently, however, it has been argued that there is no stratigraphic support for three discrete levels and that the occupation history was fragmented, complex, and continuous within a volatile dune system. We present new data, from optical and radiocarbon dating, to argue that a three‐phase model, although somewhat more complex in detail, remains the most robust interpretation of site history. The longest stable phase (Level 2) began 2500–2300 cal yr B.P. and is possibly associated with relatively low ENSO frequency. Substantial sand dune accumulation began after ˜1300 cal yr B.P. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Some economics of ‘dangerous’ climate change: Reflections on the Stern Review

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be “no doubt” the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are “very severe” [Stern, 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, London, p. 188]. The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off, permanent 5–20% loss in global mean per-capita consumption today. And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p. 344]. Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature. Subsequently, a number of critiques have appeared, arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy. Discounting is important, but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty, and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probability/high-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of ‘dangerous’ climate change), can matter just as much. We demonstrate these arguments empirically, using the same models applied in the Stern Review. Together, the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand, and ‘dangerous’ climate change on the other, raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach, where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate. Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling. There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling, bringing together scientific ‘fact’ and value judgement systematically. But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates. Ironically, the Stern Review is one of those voices. A fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should, and are, built on broader foundations.     

Stardust impact analogs: Resolving pre‐ and postimpact mineralogy in Stardust Al foils

Abstract– The grains returned by NASA’s Stardust mission from comet 81P/Wild 2 represent a valuable sample set that is significantly advancing our understanding of small solar system bodies. However, the grains were captured via impact at ～6.1 km s^?1 and have experienced pressures and temperatures that caused alteration. To ensure correct interpretations of comet 81P/Wild 2 mineralogy, and therefore preaccretional or parent body processes, an understanding of the effects of capture is required. Using a two‐stage light‐gas gun, we recreated Stardust encounter conditions and generated a series of impact analogs for a range of minerals of cometary relevance into flight spare Al foils. Through analyses of both preimpact projectiles and postimpact analogs by transmission electron microscopy, we explore the impact processes occurring during capture and distinguish between those materials inherent to the impactor and those that are the product of capture. We review existing and present additional data on olivine, diopside, pyrrhotite, and pentlandite. We find that surviving crystalline material is observed in most single grain impactor residues. However, none is found in that of a relatively monodisperse aggregate. A variety of impact‐generated components are observed in all samples. Al incorporation into melt‐derived phases allows differentiation between melt and shock‐induced phases. In single grain impactor residues, impact‐generated phases largely retain original (nonvolatile) major element ratios. We conclude that both surviving and impact‐generated phases in residues of single grain impactors provide valuable information regarding the mineralogy of the impacting grain whilst further studies are required to fully understand aggregate impacts and the role of subgrain interactions during impact.     

A comparison of late Quaternary forest changes in New Caledonia and northeastern Australia

A pollen record from Lake Xere Wapo, southeast New Caledonia, is the longest continuous terrestrial record to be recovered from the tropical southwest Pacific and reveals a series of millennial scale changes in vegetation over the last 130,000 yr. A comparison of the Lake Xere Wapo record with the key northeast Australian record of Lynch's Crater reveals regional patterns of change. From 120,000 to 50,000 yr ago the vegetation around Lake Xere Wapo alternated between rainforest and maquis with fire an important disturbance factor. In the last 50,000 yr fire is almost absent from the record and the vegetation assumes a character unprecedented in the preceding 100,000 yr, dominated by Dacrydium and Podocarpus pollen. The most compelling aspect of the comparison with Lynch's Crater is that the much-discussed Araucaria decline at around 45,000 yr ago in northern Queensland is matched by a similar decline in the Lake Xere Wapo record.     

Possible long-term decline in impact rates: 1. Martian geological data

Quantin et al. [Quantin, C., Allemand, P., Mangold, N., Delacourt, C., 2004a. Icarus 172, 555-572] tabulated crater count data for 56 landslides along the walls of Valles Marineris. Under the assumption of a constant cratering rate after about 3 Gyr ago, as used in the 1999-2005 iterations of the crater chronology isochron system of Hartmann, and in the Hartmann and Neukum system, these data indicate a regularly increasing rate of landslides, which would be difficult to explain. We suggest that these data may support a decline in inner Solar System cratering rates by about a factor of 3 since 3 Gyr ago, not unlike predictions based on asteroid belt collision models. Such a decline is also supported by our review of data on lunar impact melts and glass spherules in a companion paper [Hartmann, W.K., Quantin, C., Mangold, N., 2007. Icarus 186, 11-23]. Such models produce not only a more uniform rate of landslides over the last 3 Gyr, but also a more uniform rate of resurfacing processes which also had an apparent increase under the assumption of a constant cratering rate.     

Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum: a new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data. I. Vegetation, lake-levels and geochemistry

 Palaeodata in synthesis form are needed as benchmarks for the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Advances since the last synthesis of terrestrial palaeodata from the last glacial maximum (LGM) call for a new evaluation, especially of data from the tropics. Here pollen, plant-macrofossil, lake-level, noble gas (from groundwater) and δ¹⁸O (from speleothems) data are compiled for 18±2 ka (¹⁴C), 32 °N–33 °S. The reliability of the data was evaluated using explicit criteria and some types of data were re-analysed using consistent methods in order to derive a set of mutually consistent palaeoclimate estimates of mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean annual temperature (MAT), plant available moisture (PAM) and runoff (P-E). Cold-month temperature (MAT) anomalies from plant data range from −1 to −2 K near sea level in Indonesia and the S Pacific, through −6 to −8 K at many high-elevation sites to −8 to −15 K in S China and the SE USA. MAT anomalies from groundwater or speleothems seem more uniform (−4 to −6 K), but the data are as yet sparse; a clear divergence between MAT and cold-month estimates from the same region is seen only in the SE USA, where cold-air advection is expected to have enhanced cooling in winter. Regression of all cold-month anomalies against site elevation yielded an estimated average cooling of −2.5 to −3 K at modern sea level, increasing to ≈−6 K by 3000 m. However, Neotropical sites showed larger than the average sea-level cooling (−5 to −6 K) and a non-significant elevation effect, whereas W and S Pacific sites showed much less sea-level cooling (−1 K) and a stronger elevation effect. These findings support the inference that tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were lower than the CLIMAP estimates, but they limit the plausible average tropical sea-surface cooling, and they support the existence of CLIMAP-like geographic patterns in SST anomalies. Trends of PAM and lake levels indicate wet LGM conditions in the W USA, and at the highest elevations, with generally dry conditions elsewhere. These results suggest a colder-than-present ocean surface producing a weaker hydrological cycle, more arid continents, and arguably steeper-than-present terrestrial lapse rates. Such linkages are supported by recent observations on freezing-level height and tropical SSTs; moreover, simulations of “greenhouse” and LGM climates point to several possible feedback processes by which low-level temperature anomalies might be amplified aloft. Received: 7 September 1998 / Accepted: 18 March 1999     

The signature of dark energy on the local Hubble flow

Using N -body simulations of flat, dark energy-dominated cosmologies, we show that galaxies around simulated binary systems resembling the Local Group (LG) have low peculiar velocities, in good agreement with observational data. We have compared results for LG-like systems selected from large, high-resolution simulations of three cosmologies: a ΛCDM model, a ΛWDM model with a 2-keV warm dark matter candidate, and a quintessence (QCDM) model with an equation-of-state parameter   w =−0.6  . The Hubble flow is significantly colder around LGs selected in a flat, Λ-dominated cosmology than around LGs in open or critical models, showing that a dark energy component manifests itself on the scales of nearby galaxies, cooling galaxy peculiar motions. Flows in the ΛWDM and QCDM models are marginally colder than in the ΛCDM one.
The results of our simulations have been compared to existing data and to a new data set of 28 nearby galaxies with robust distance measures (Cepheids and surface brightness fluctuations). The measured line-of-sight velocity dispersion is given by  σ_H= (88 ± 20  km s⁻¹) × ( R /7 Mpc)  . The best agreement with observations is found for LGs selected in the ΛCDM cosmology in environments with  −0.1 < δρ/ρ < 0.6  on scales of 7 Mpc, in agreement with existing observational estimates on the local matter density. These results provide new, independent evidence for the presence of dark energy on scales of a few megaparsecs, corroborating the evidence gathered from observations of distant objects and the early Universe.     

Quantifying seasonal precipitation using high-resolution carbon isotope analyses in evergreen wood

High-resolution natural abundance stable carbon isotope analyses across annual growth rings in evergreen trees reveal a cyclic increase and decrease in the measured carbon isotopic composition (δ¹³C), but the causes of this pattern are poorly understood. We compiled new and published high-resolution δ¹³C data from across annual growth rings of 33 modern evergreen trees from 10 genera and 15 globally distributed sites to quantify the parameters that affect the observed δ¹³C pattern. Across a broad range of latitude, temperature, and precipitation regimes, we found that the average, measured seasonal change in δ¹³C (Δδ¹³C_meas, ‰) within tree rings of evergreen species reflects changes in the carbon isotopic composition of atmospheric carbon dioxide (Δδ¹³C_CO2) and changes in seasonal precipitation (ΔP) according to the following equation: Δδ¹³C_meas = Δδ¹³C_CO2 - 0.82(ΔP) + 0.73; R² = 0.96. Seasonal changes in temperature, pCO₂, and light levels were not found to significantly affect Δδ¹³C_meas. We propose that this relationship can be used to quantify seasonal patterns in paleoprecipitation from intra-ring profiles of δ¹³C measured from non-permineralized, fossil wood.     

Policy uncertainty and diffusion of carbon capture and storage in an optimal region

Abstract

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is the value of the climate change impacts from 1 tonne of carbon emitted today as CO₂, aggregated over time and discounted back to the present day. We used PAGE2002, the same probabilistic integrated assessment model as used by the Stern Review (Stern et al., 2006), to calculate the SCC and to examine how it varies with discount rate; and find that it is not sensitive to the path of emissions on which the tonne of carbon is superimposed. The mean value of the SCC is $43 per tonne under both a business-as-usual scenario, and under a scenario aimed at stabilizing CO₂ concentrations at 550 ppm. This counter-intuitive result is caused by the interplay between the logarithmic relationship between forcing and concentration, the nonlinear relationship of damage to temperature, and discounting. However, the SCC is sensitive to a number of scientific and economic inputs to the model. Two recent distributions for the sensitivity of climate to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ (Murphy et al., 2004; Stainforth et al., 2005) increase the mean value of the SCC from $43 to $68 and $90 per tonne. Using a pure rate of time preference of 0.1% per year, as in the Stern Review, gives a mean SCC of $365 per tonne.