Crossing Boundaries in a Collaborative Modeling Workspace

There is substantial literature on the importance of bridging across disciplinary and science–management boundaries. One of the ways commonly suggested to cross boundaries is for participants from both sides of the boundary to jointly produce information (i.e., knowledge co-production). But simply providing tools or bringing people together in the same room is not sufficient. Here we present a case study documenting the mechanisms by which managers and scientists collaborated to incorporate climate change projections into Colorado’s State Wildlife Action Plan. A critical component of the project was the use of a collaborative modeling and visualization workspace: the U.S. Geological Survey’s Resource for Advanced Modeling (RAM). Using video analysis and pre/post surveys from this case study, we examine how the RAM facilitated cognitive and social processes that co-produced a more salient and credible end product. This case provides practical suggestions to scientists and practitioners who want to implement actionable science.     

Verification of short-term runoff forecasts for a small Philippine basin (Marikina)

Storm runoff from the Marikina River Basin frequently causes flood events in the Philippine capital region Metro Manila. This paper presents and evaluates a system to predict short-term runoff from the upper part of that basin (380 km²). It was designed as a possible component of an operational warning system yet to be installed. For the purpose of forecast verification, hindcasts of streamflow were generated for a period of 15 months with a time-continuous, conceptual hydrological model. The latter was fed with real-time observations of rainfall. Both ground observations and weather radar data were tested as rainfall forcings. The radar-based precipitation estimates clearly outperformed the raingauge-based estimates in the hydrological verification. Nevertheless, the quality of the deterministic short-term runoff forecasts was found to be limited. For the radar-based predictions, the reduction of variance for lead times of 1, 2 and 3 hours was 0.61, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively, with reference to a “no-forecast” scenario, i.e. persistence. The probability of detection for major increases in streamflow was typically less than 0.5. Given the significance of flood events in the Marikina Basin, more effort needs to be put into the reduction of forecast errors and the quantification of remaining uncertainties.     

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.     

History of scoria-cone eruptions on the eastern shoulder of the Kenya–Tanzania Rift revealed in the 250-ka sediment record of Lake Chala near Mount Kilimanjaro

Reconstructions of the timing and frequency of past eruptions are important to assess the propensity for future volcanic activity, yet in volcanic areas such as the East African Rift only piecemeal eruption histories exist. Understanding the volcanic history of scoria-cone fields, where eruptions are often infrequent and deposits strongly weathered, is particularly challenging. Here we reconstruct a history of volcanism from scoria cones situated along the eastern shoulders of the Kenya–Tanzania Rift, using a sequence of tephra (volcanic ash) layers preserved in the ~250-ka sediment record of Lake Chala near Mount Kilimanjaro. Seven visible and two non-visible (crypto-) tephra layers in the Lake Chala sequence are attributed to activity from the Mt Kilimanjaro (northern Tanzania) and the Chyulu Hills (southern Kenya) volcanic fields, on the basis of their glass chemistry, textural characteristics and known eruption chronology. The Lake Chala record of eruptions from scoria cones in the Chyulu Hills volcanic field confirms geological and historical evidence of its recent activity, and provides first-order age estimates for seven previously unknown eruptions. Long and well-resolved sedimentary records such as that of Lake Chala have significant potential for resolving regional eruption chronologies spanning hundreds of thousands of years.     

Effect of Decadal Changes in Freshwater Flows and Temperature on the Larvae of two Forage Fish Species in Coastal Nurseries of the St. Lawrence Estuary

Since 2002, the abundance of larvae of rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) has been monitored in July in coastal nurseries (Anse Ste.-Anne (ASA) and Banc de Rivière-du-Loup (BRL)) in the Middle St. Lawrence Estuary (MSLE), Canada. The two species are spatiotemporally segregated, with smelt larvae being more abundant at the upstream, less saline site (ASA) and having an earlier hatching date. Despite these differences, the abundances of both species from 2002 to 2013 were strongly and positively related to the early spring flow of tributaries at the time of larval smelt emergence and weakly and negatively related to sea-surface temperatures in the nurseries. Larval herring abundance was weakly associated with the upstream bottom residual transport flow of the MSLE’s estuarine circulation in June, at the time of their emergence. Larval herring lengths in BRL were positively related to the sum of degree days (SDD) from hatching to sampling, with the greatest length but lowest condition in 2012. The relationship between body lengths of ASA smelt larvae and SDD was dome-shaped, suggesting lower growth than expected in the warmest years, 2006 and 2012. The highest larval abundances were observed in 2008 and 2011, both years with late tributary freshets, high tributary flows in the early spring and moderately warm summer temperatures. In contrast, low abundances occurred in 2006 and 2012, which were years with low spring tributary flows and high summer temperatures. These results suggest that the dynamics of local tributary freshets is a key driver of larval recruitment success for two key forage species in coastal nurseries until summer and support the use of fish larvae as indicators of environmental changes in the MSLE.     

B and Li isotopes as intrinsic tracers for injection tests in aquifer storage and recovery systems

Boron and Li isotopes have been tested as environmental tracers of treated sewage injected into a sandy aquifer (Shafdan reclamation project, Israel). During a 38 days injection test in a newly dug injection well, a conservative artificial tracer (Br⁻) was monitored together with δ¹¹B and δ⁷Li in the injectate, in the unsaturated soil zone (porous cup) and an observation well in the aquifer. In spite of B and Li concentrations in the injectate close to background values, significant shifts of the isotope signatures could be observed over the duration of the injection test. Boron isotope ratios show a breakthrough curve delayed with respect to Br⁻ breakthrough due to some reversible sorption on the aquifer material. No isotope fractionation was observed in the unsaturated or the saturated zone so that B isotopes can be considered as conservative in the investigated part of the aquifer system. Lithium isotopes are strongly fractionated, probably due to sorption processes. Lithium concentrations point to a Li sink in the system, δ⁷Li values vary strongly with a tendency of ⁷Li depletion in the liquid phase over the duration of the experiment. This is opposite to the expected preferential sorption of ⁶Li onto clay minerals. Boron isotopes reveals a valuable tracer of artificial recharge of freshwaters derived from treated sewage, both for short term tracer tests and for long-term monitoring of artificial recharge, even if in aquifers with higher clay contents, sorption-linked isotope fractionation cannot be excluded. More data are needed on Li isotope fractionation in natural groundwater systems to assess the potential of this tracer as monitoring tool.     

Landslide Research at the British Geological Survey:Capture,Storage and Interpretation on a National and Site-Specific Scale

Abstract: Landslide research at the British Geological Survey (BGS) is carried out through a number of activities, including surveying, database development and real-time monitoring of landslides. Landslide mapping across the UK has been carried out since BGS started geological mapping in 1835. Today, BGS geologists use a combination of remote sensing and ground-based investigations to survey landslides. The development of waterproof tablet computers (BGS·SIGMAmobile), with inbuilt GPS and GIS for field data capture provides an accurate and rapid mapping methodology for field surveys. Regional and national mapping of landslides is carried out in conjunction with site-specific monitoring, using terrestrial LiDAR and differential GPS technologies, which BGS has successfully developed for this application. In addition to surface monitoring, BGS is currently developing geophysical ground-imaging systems for landslide monitoring, which provide real-time information on subsurface changes prior to failure events. BGS’s mapping and monitoring activities directly feed into the BGS National Landslide Database, the most extensive source of information on landslides in Great Britain. It currently holds over 14?000 records of landslide events. By combining BGS’s corporate datasets with expert knowledge, BGS has developed a landslide hazard assessment tool, GeoSure, which provides information on the relative landslide hazard susceptibility at national scale.     

Laboratory studies on the sputtering contribution to the sodium atmospheres of Mercury and the Moon

To ascertain the importance of sputtering by solar wind ions on the formation of a sodium exosphere around Mercury and the Moon, we have irradiated with 4 keV He ions, the Na bearing tectosilicates: albite, labradorite, and anorthoclase, as well as adsorbed Na layers deposited on albite and on olivine (a neosilicate that does not contain Na). Sodium at the surface and near surface (<40 Å) was quantified with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy before and after each irradiation to determine the depletion cross section. We measured a cross section for sputtering of Na adsorbed on mineral surfaces, σ_s ≈ 1 × 10^?15 cm² atom^?1. In addition, mass spectrometric analyses of the sputtered flux show that a large fraction of the Na is sputtered as ions rather than as neutral atoms. These results have strong implications for modeling the sodium population within the mercurian and the lunar exospheres.