Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO₂ emissions indicate that by the end of the 21^st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO₂ concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6 m, and 2–6 °C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associated with changes in annual streamflow, though it is likely that winter and spring flows will increase. Climate change alone will cause the Bay to function very differently in the future. Likely changes include: (1) an increase in coastal flooding and submergence of estuarine wetlands; (2) an increase in salinity variability on many time scales; (3) an increase in harmful algae; (4) an increase in hypoxia; (5) a reduction of eelgrass, the dominant submerged aquatic vegetation in the Bay; and (6) altered interactions among trophic levels, with subtropical fish and shellfish species ultimately being favored in the Bay. The magnitude of these changes is sensitive to the CO₂ emission trajectory, so that actions taken now to reduce CO₂ emissions will reduce climate impacts on the Bay. Research needs include improved precipitation and streamflow projections for the Bay watershed and whole-system monitoring, modeling, and process studies that can capture the likely non-linear responses of the Chesapeake Bay system to climate variability, climate change, and their interaction with other anthropogenic stressors.     

New Perspectives on the Use of GPS and GIS to Support a Highway Performance Study

In recent decades, rapid growth of travel volume has resulted in a significant increase in traffic congestion, accidents, environmental pollution and energy consumption. Accurate traffic data are drastically needed for effective evaluation of traffic systems in order to alleviate the impacts of increasing travel volume of the quality of life and economic development of urban areas. This article provides a discussion on a data acquisition methodology for highway traffic pattern recognition and congestion analysis by integrating data from the global positioning system (GPS) with a geographic information system (GIS). The GPS technology is a powerful tool in capturing continuous positioning and timing information, whereas the GIS is capable of storing, managing, manipulating, analyzing and displaying the acquired spatial information. Compared to previous studies, the effective integration of the two technologies allows for traffic analysis to be conducted at a finer resolution. The proposed method is illustrated with a case study on multiple major highway segments in Columbus, Ohio.     

Integrating structural geology and petroleum systems modeling – A pilot project from Bolivia's fold and thrust belt

For the first time, a new approach to petroleum systems analysis is presented which allows full integration of tectonic and palinspastic restoration with three-dimensional (3D), PVT-controlled, multi-component, three-phase petroleum migration analysis through time. A systematic modeling study has been applied to a study area dominated by fold and thrust belts located in the Sub Andean orogeny near Tarija, Bolivia. The project has been performed with a special focus on the simulation technique and on the correct distribution of temperature, source-rock maturity and pressure development through time with reference to its input data. This is the first pilot project presenting a 3D numerical model in a compressional structural regime to which the basin modeling approach has been applied to explain the observed distribution of temperature, pressure, maturity and petroleum accumulations in general.     

Estimating the carbon transfer between the ocean, atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere since the last glacial maximum

Carbon dioxide records from polar ice cores and marine ocean sediments indicate that the last glacial maximum (LGM) atmosphere CO₂ content was 80–90 ppm lower than the mid-Holocene. This represents a transfer of over 160 GtC into the atmosphere since the LGM. Palaeovegetation studies suggest that up to 1350 GtC was transferred from the oceans to the terrestrial biosphere at the end of the last glacial. Evidence from carbon isotopes in deep sea sediments, however, indicates a smaller shift of between 400 and 700 GtC. To understand the functioning of the carbon cycle this apparent discrepancy needs to be resolved. Thus, older data have been reassessed, new data provided and the potential errors of both methods estimated. New estimates of the expansion of terrestrial biomass between the LGM and mid-Holocene are 700 GtC ± > 300 GtC, using the ocean carbon isotope-based method, compared with of 1100 GtC ± > 500 GtC using the palaeovegetation estimate. If these estimates of the carbon shift to the terrestrial biosphere are equilibrated with the dissolved carbon in the oceans, and the CaCO₃ compensation of the ocean is taken into account, then the glacial atmospheric CO₂ would have been between 50 (± 30) ppm and 95 (± 50) ppm higher. The glacial atmosphere therefore should have had a CO₂ partial pressure of between 330 and 375 μatm. Hence, a rise of between 130 and 175 μatm in atmospheric CO₂, rather than 80 μatm, at the end of the last glacial must be accounted for.     

Succession of microphytobenthos in a restored coastal wetland

Sediment microphytobenthos, such as diatoms and photosynthetic bacteria, are functionally important components of food webs and are key mediators of nutrient dynamics in marine wetlands. The medium to long-term recovery of benthic microproducers in restored habitats designed to improve degraded coastal wetland sites is largely unknown. Using taxon-specific photopigments, we describe the composition of microphytobenthic communities in a large restoration site in southern California and differences in the temporal recovery of biomass (chlorophylla), composition, and taxonomic diversity between vegetatedSpartina foliosa salt marsh and unvegetated mudflat. Visually distinct, spatially discreet, microphytobenthic patches appeared after no more than 7 mo within the restoration site and were distinguished by significant differences in biomass, taxonomic diversity, and the relative abundance of cyanobacteria versus diatoms. Sediment chlorophylla concentrations within the restored site were similar to concentrations in nearby natural habitat 0.2–2.2 yr following marsh creation, suggesting rapid colonization by microproducers. RestoredSpartina marsh very rapidly (between 0.2 and 1.2 yr) acquired microphytobenthic communities of similar composition and diversity to those in naturalSpartina habitat, but restored mudflats took at least 1.6 to 2.2 yr to resemble natural mudflats. These results suggest relatively rapid recovery of microphytobenthic communities at the level of major taxonomic groups. Sediment features, such as pore water salinity andSpartina density, explained little variation in microphytobenthic taxonomic composition. The data imply that provision of structural heterogeneity in wetland construction (such as pools and vascular plants) might speed development of microproducer communities, but no direct seeding of sediment microfloras may be necessary.     

Efficacy of PIT tags and an autonomous antenna system to study the juvenile life stage of an estuarine-dependent fish

Many marine fishes use spatially distinct habitats as juveniles and adults. Determining which juvenile habitats are most important to sustaining adult populations (i.e., which habitats are nurseries) has proven difficult, in part due to challenges in estimating survival of juveniles in putative nursery habitats. Recent technological advances have made largescale tagging efforts a viable approach to estimating survival of juvenile fishes by increasing recapture rates and enabling the use of individual-identification tags. These techniques, using Passive Integrated transponder (PIT) tags and autonomous antenna detection systems (antenna), have been successfully applied in freshwater environments. This paper reports the adaptation of these techniques to estuarine mangrove creeks (salinity: 2–28‰) for research of the juvenile life stage on an estuarine-dependent marine fish,Centropomus undecimalis. Retention rate of PIT tags in juveniles >120 mm standard length was 100%, with no mortality. The antenna detection field covered 48% of the creek water column, and the antenna was experimentally determined to detect approximately 67% of tagged fish that swam through. Overall recapture rate of tagged fish by the antenna was >40%. This recapture rate is higher than the sparse data typical of traditional tag-recapture studies. A time-dependent Jolly-Seber model was fit to the data, providing estimates of capture probability (0.8) and weekly apparent survival (0.41) that will be invaluable in comparing juvenile habitats of different quality (e.g., natural versus anthropogenically degraded). This research demonstrates the viability of this approach to fish research in estuarine habitats.     

Is lower crustal layering related to extension?

Summary. The Western Approaches Margin (WAM) profile was shot to test the hypothesis that the reflectivity observed in the lower crust is related to extensional processes. The preliminary results of the experiment show that the reflectivity in the lower crust appears to become weaker on the continental shelf near the slope break. Detailed examination of the data however, show a significant increase in noise in the region where the layering appears to fade. The noise may be of sufficient amplitude to obscure any coherent lower crustal events present. Therefore, the only conclusion that can presently be drawn from the dataset is that the layering does not become more pronounced in the region of maximum extension.