Tidal response to sea level rise and bathymetric changes in the German Wadden Sea

Ocean Dynamics - Tidally dominated coasts are directly affected not only by projected rise in mean sea level, but also by changes in tidal dynamics due to sea level rise and bathymetric changes. By...     

A rational method for development of limit state for liquefaction evaluation based on shear wave velocity measurements

This papers presents a new approach for developing a limit state for liquefaction evaluation based on field performance data. As an example to illustrate the new approach, a database that consists of, among many other features, in situ shear wave velocity measurements and field observations of liquefaction/non‐liquefaction in historic earthquakes is analysed. This database is first used to train a neural network to classify liquefaction/non‐liquefaction based on soil resistance parameters and load parameters. The successfully trained and tested neural network is then used to establish a limit state, a multiple dimension boundary that separates ‘zone’ of liquefaction from ‘zone’ of non‐liquefaction. The limit state yields cyclic resistance ratio for a given set of soil resistance parameters. Examination of all cases in the database show that the developed limit state has a high degree of accuracy in predicting the occurrence of liquefaction/non‐liquefaction. The developed neural network model can accurately predict the cyclic resistance ratio of soils. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analytic solutions to the accretion of a rotating finite cloud towards a central object – I. Newtonian approach

We construct a steady analytic accretion flow model for a finite rotating gas cloud that accretes material to a central gravitational object. The pressure gradients of the flow are considered to be negligible, and so the flow is ballistic. We also assume a steady flow and consider the particles at the boundary of the spherical cloud to be rotating as a rigid body, with a fixed amount of inwards radial velocity. This represents a generalization to the traditional infinite gas cloud model described by Ulrich. We show that the streamlines and density profiles obtained deviate largely from the ones calculated by Ulrich. The extra freedom in the choice of the parameters on the model can naturally account for the study of protostars formed in dense clusters by triggered mechanisms, where a wide variety of external physical mechanisms determine the boundary conditions. Also, as expected, the model predicts the formation of an equatorial accretion disc about the central object with a radius different from the one calculated by Ulrich.     

Modeling the Population Effects of Hypoxia on Atlantic Croaker (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Micropogonias undulatus</Emphasis>) in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Part 1—Model Description and Idealized Hypoxia

We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model to analyze how hypoxia effects on reproduction, growth, and mortality of Atlantic croaker in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico lead to population-level responses. The model follows the hourly growth, mortality, reproduction, and movement of individuals on a 300 × 800 spatial grid of 1-km² cells for 140 years. Chlorophyll-a concentration, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen (DO) were specified daily for each grid cell and repeated for each year of the simulation. A bioenergetics model was used to represent growth, mortality was assumed stage- and age-dependent, and the movement behavior of juveniles and adults was modeled based on temperature and avoidance of low DO. Hypoxia effects were imposed using exposure effect submodels that converted time-varying exposures to low DO to reduced hourly growth, increased hourly mortality, and reduced annual fecundity. Results showed that 100 years of either mild or intermediate hypoxia produced small reductions in population abundance, while repeated severe hypoxia caused a 19% reduction in long-term population abundance. Relatively few individuals were exposed to low DO each hour, but many individuals experienced some exposure. The response was dominated by a 5% average reduction in annual fecundity of individuals. Under conditions of random sequences of mild, intermediate, and severe hypoxia years occurring in proportion to their historical frequency, the model predicted a 10% decrease in the long-term population abundance of croaker. A companion paper substitutes hourly DO values from a three-dimensional water quality model for the idealized hypoxia and results in a more realistic population reduction of about 25%.     

Modeling X-Ray Photoionized Plasmas Produced at the Sandia Z-Facility

In experiments at the high-power Z-facility at Sandia National Laboratory in Albuquerque, New Mexico, we have been able to produce a low density photoionized laboratory plasma of Fe mixed with NaF. The conditions in the experiment allow a meaningful comparison with X-ray emission from astrophysical sources. The charge state distributions of Fe, Na and F are determined in this plasma using high resolution X-ray spectroscopy. Independent measurements of the density and radiation flux indicate unprecedented values for the ionization parameter ξ = 20–25 erg cm s⁻¹ under nearly steady-state conditions. First comparisons of the measured charge state distributions with X-ray photoionization models show reasonable agreement, although many questions remain.     

Radar observations of Itokawa in 2004 and improved shape estimation

Abstract— We present June 2004 radar images of asteroid 25143 Itokawa (1998 SF36) that improve upon the longitude‐latitude coverage of images obtained in 2001 by Ostro et al. (2004) and use the 2001–2004 data to refine that paper's constraints on Itokawa's shape. The 2004 images, the first of the asteroid's southern side, look distinctly different from the 2001 images, revealing leading edges that are much more curved and rugged than the nearly convex leading edges seen at northern latitudes in 2001. Itokawa is shaped like a slightly asymmetrical, bent, lumpy ellipsoid with dimensions along the principal axes within 10% of 594 times 320 times 288 m. To illustrate the uncertainty space associated with shape reconstruction from images with suboptimal orientational coverage, we present two alternative three‐dimensional models of the object.     

Improved methods for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from transient warming simulations

Climate Dynamics - Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) refers to the total global warming caused by an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 from the pre-industrial level in a climate system....     

Flow‐Through Stream Modeling with MODFLOW and MT3D: Certainties and Limitations

This paper aims to assess MODFLOW and MT3D capabilities for simulating the spread of contaminants from a river exhibiting an unusual relationship with an alluvial aquifer, with the groundwater head higher than the river head on one side and lower on the other (flow‐through stream). A series of simulation tests is conducted using a simple hypothetical model so as to characterize and quantify these limitations. Simulation results show that the expected contaminant spread could be achieved with a specific configuration composed of two sets of parameters: (1) modeled object parameters (hydraulic groundwater gradient, hydraulic conductivity values of aquifer and streambed), and (2) modeling parameters (vertical discretization of aquifer, horizontal refinement of stream modeled with River [RIV] package). The influence of these various parameters on simulation results is investigated, and potential complications and errors are identified. Contaminant spread from stream to aquifer is not always reproduced by MT3D due to the RIV package's inability to simulate lateral exchange fluxes between stream and aquifer. This paper identifies the need for a MODFLOW streamflow package allowing lateral stream‐aquifer interactions and streamflow routine calculations. Such developments could be of particular interest for modeling contaminated flow‐through streams.