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991.
T. Kılıç L. Ottemöller J. Havskov K. Yanık Ö. Kılıçarslan F. Alver M. Özyazıcıoğlu 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(1):35-46
Based on the earthquake event data accumulated by the Turkish National Seismic Network between 2007 and 2013, the local magnitude (Richter, Ml) scale is calibrated for Turkey and the close neighborhood. A total of 137 earthquakes (Mw?>?3.5) are used for the Ml inversion for the whole country. Three Ml scales, whole country, East, and West Turkey, are developed, and the scales also include the station correction terms. Since the scales for the two parts of the country are very similar, it is concluded that a single Ml scale is suitable for the whole country. Available data indicate the new scale to suffer from saturation beyond magnitude 6.5. For this data set, the horizontal amplitudes are on average larger than vertical amplitudes by a factor of 1.8. The recommendation made is to measure Ml amplitudes on the vertical channels and then add the logarithm scale factor to have a measure of maximum amplitude on the horizontal. The new Ml is compared to Mw from EMSC, and there is almost a 1:1 relationship, indicating that the new scale gives reliable magnitudes for Turkey. 相似文献
992.
Seismic events can affect the physico-chemical characteristics of groundwater. These anomalies are of a pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic nature and correspond to pulse variations, sudden increases and decreases without return to initial values and upward or downward changes in trend. Continuous and in situ conductivity and temperature monitoring and periodic water sampling at a hot spring associated with neotectonic activity are of great interest for establishing predictive methods. This method is limited to the seismic activity affecting the fracturing system with which the hot spring is associated. The Region of Murcia and surroundings (southeast Spain) was selected as the study area for exploring the nature of these influences on groundwater. A hot spring in the Leana spa (Murcia) was equipped and monitored during the period 2006–2008, allowing for the in situ determination of conductivity and temperature as well as of major and minor constituents at the laboratory. Due to its proximity and related with fault network, we suggest that 86 % of earthquakes located between 0 and 10 km may affect in situ parameters of groundwater, and 75 % may affect laboratory determinations. This percentage drops in more distant zones. Of all earthquakes that seem to influence groundwater, 55 % of the in situ parameter anomalies and 53 % of laboratory were of a pre-seismic nature. 相似文献
993.
Rapid cooling and geospeedometry of granitic rocks exhumation within a volcanic arc: A case study from the Central Slovakian Neovolcanic Field (Western Carpathians) 下载免费PDF全文
U–Pb Sensitive High‐Resolution Ion MicroProbe (SHRIMP) dating of zircon in combination with (U–Th)/He dating of zircon and apatite is applied to constrain the emplacement and exhumation history of the youngest granitic rocks in the Western Carpathians collected in the Central Slovakian Neovolcanic Field. Two samples of diorite from the locality Banky, and granodiorite from Banská Hodru?a yield the U–Pb zircon concordia ages of 15.21 ±0.19 Ma and 12.92 ±0.27 Ma, respectively, recording the time of zircon crystallization and the intrusions’ emplacement. Zircon (U–Th)/He ages of 14.70 ±0.94 (Banky) and 12.65 ±0.61 Ma (Banská Hodru?a), and apatite (U–Th)/He ages of 14.45 ±0.70 Ma (diorite) and 12.26 ±0.77 Ma (granodiorite) are less than 1 Myr younger than the corresponding zircon U–Pb ages. For both diorite and granodiorite rocks their chronological data thus document a simple cooling process from magmatic crystallization/solidification temperatures to near‐surface temperatures in the Middle Miocene, without subsequent reheating. Geospeedometry data suggest for rapid cooling at an average rate of 678 ±158 °C/Myr, and the exhumation rate of 5 mm/year corresponding to active tectonic‐forced exhumation. The quick cooling is interpreted to record the exhumation of the studied granitic rocks complex that closely followed its emplacement, and was likely accompanied by a drop in the paleo‐geothermal gradient due to cessation of volcanic activity in the area. 相似文献
994.
E.?Di?Bernardino F.?Palacios-RodríguezEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(10):2675-2689
The classic univariate risk measure in environmental sciences is the Return Period (RP). The RP is traditionally defined as “the average time elapsing between two successive realizations of a prescribed event”. The notion of design quantile related with RP is also of great importance. The design quantile represents the “value of the variable(s) characterizing the event associated with a given RP”. Since an individual risk may strongly be affected by the degree of dependence amongst all risks, the need for the provision of multivariate design quantiles has gained ground. In contrast to the univariate case, the design quantile definition in the multivariate setting presents certain difficulties. In particular, Salvadori, G., De Michele, C. and Durante F. define in the paper called “On the return period and design in a multivariate framework” (Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:3293–3305, 2011) the design realization as the vector that maximizes a weight function given that the risk vector belongs to a given critical layer of its joint multivariate distribution function. In this paper, we provide the explicit expression of the aforementioned multivariate risk measure in the Archimedean copula setting. Furthermore, this measure is estimated by using Extreme Value Theory techniques and the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator is studied. The performance of our estimator is evaluated on simulated data. We conclude with an application on a real hydrological data-set. 相似文献
995.
Smoothing and high risk areas detection in space-time disease mapping: a comparison of P-splines,autoregressive, and moving average models 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
A.?Adin M.?A.?Martínez-Beneito P.?Botella-Rocamora T.?Goicoa M.?D.?UgarteEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(2):403-415
Recently, several models have been proposed for smoothing risks in disease mapping. These models consider different ways of introducing both spatial and temporal dependence as well as spatio-temporal interactions. In this work, a comparison among some autoregressive, moving average, and P-spline models is performed. Firstly, brain cancer mortality data are used to analyze the degree of smoothness introduced by these models. Secondly, two separate simulation studies (one model-based and the other model-free) are carried out to evaluate the model performance in terms of bias, variability, sensitivity, and specificity. We conclude that P-spline models seem to be a good alternative to autoregressive and moving average models when analyzing highly sparse disease mapping data. 相似文献
996.
Mario?GómezEmail authorView authors OrcID profile M.?Concepción Ausín M.?Carmen Domínguez 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1107-1121
Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of ice and snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Catchment areas at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual two-step approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to problems in the sounding. 相似文献
997.
Raúl?Fierro Víctor?LeivaEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(9):2327-2336
We propose a stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed from the last large seismic event. We state an approximate probability distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing that the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is exponential with a rate depending on the asymptotic slope of the cumulative intensity function corresponding to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. As it is not possible to obtain an empirical cumulative distribution function of the waiting time for the next large earthquake, an estimator of its cumulative distribution function based on existing data is derived. We conduct a simulation study for detecting scenario in which the proposed methodology would perform well. Finally, a real-world data analysis is carried out to illustrate its potential applications, including a homogeneity test for the times between earthquakes. 相似文献
998.
Frontal dynamics boost primary production in the summer stratified Mediterranean sea 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Antonio Olita Arthur Capet Mariona Claret Amala Mahadevan Pierre Marie Poulain Alberto Ribotti Simón Ruiz Joaquín Tintoré Antonio Tovar-Sánchez Ananda Pascual 《Ocean Dynamics》2017,67(6):767-782
Bio-physical glider measurements from a unique process-oriented experiment in the Eastern Alboran Sea (AlborEx) allowed us to observe the distribution of the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) across an intense density front, with a resolution (~ 400 m) suitable for investigating sub-mesoscale dynamics. This front, at the interface between Atlantic and Mediterranean waters, had a sharp density gradient (Δρ ~ 1 kg/m3 in ~ 10 km) and showed imprints of (sub-)mesoscale phenomena on tracer distributions. Specifically, the chlorophyll-a concentration within the DCM showed a disrupted pattern along isopycnal surfaces, with patches bearing a relationship to the stratification (buoyancy frequency) at depths between 30 and 60 m. In order to estimate the primary production (PP) rate within the chlorophyll patches observed at the sub-surface, we applied the Morel and Andrè (J Geophys Res 96:685–698 1991) bio-optical model using the photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) from Argo profiles collected simultaneously with glider data. The highest production was located concurrently with domed isopycnals on the fresh side of the front, suggestive that (sub-)mesoscale upwelling is carrying phytoplankton patches from less to more illuminated levels, with a contemporaneous delivering of nutrients. Integrated estimations of PP (1.3 g C m?2d?1) along the glider path are two to four times larger than the estimations obtained from satellite-based algorithms, i.e., derived from the 8-day composite fields extracted over the glider trip path. Despite the differences in spatial and temporal sampling between instruments, the differences in PP estimations are mainly due to the inability of the satellite to measure DCM patches responsible for the high production. The deepest (depth > 60 m) chlorophyll patches are almost unproductive and probably transported passively (subducted) from upper productive layers. Finally, the relationship between primary production and oxygen is also investigated. The logarithm of the primary production in the DCM interior (chlorophyll (Chl) > 0.5 mg/m3) shows a linear negative relationship with the apparent oxygen utilization, confirming that high chlorophyll patches are productive. The slope of this relationship is different for Atlantic, mixed interface waters and Mediterranean waters, suggesting the presence of differences in planktonic communities (whether physiological, population, or community level should be object of further investigation) on the different sides of the front. In addition, the ratio of optical backscatter to Chl is high within the intermediate (mixed) waters, which is suggestive of large phytoplankton cells, and lower within the core of the Atlantic and Mediterranean waters. These observations highlight the relevance of fronts in triggering primary production at DCM level and shaping the characteristic patchiness of the pelagic domain. This gains further relevance considering the inadequacy of optical satellite sensors to observe DCM concentrations at such fine scales. 相似文献
999.
The observation of extreme waves at FINO 1 during storm Britta on the 1st November 2006 has initiated a series of research studies regarding the mechanisms behind. The roles of stability and the presence of the open cell structures have been previously investigated but not conclusive. To improve our understanding of these processes, which are essential for a good forecast of similarly important events offshore, this study revisits the development of storm Britta using an atmospheric and wave coupled modeling system, wind and wave measurements from ten stations across the North Sea, cloud images and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. It is found here that a standard state-of-the-art model is capable of capturing the important characteristics of a major storm like Britta, including the storm path, storm peak wind speed, the open cells, and peak significant wave height (H s ) for open sea. It was also demonstrated that the impact of the open cells has negligible contribution to the development of extreme H s observed at FINO 1. At the same time, stability alone is not sufficient in explaining the development of extreme H s . The controlling conditions for the development of Britta extreme H s observed at FINO 1 are the persistent strong winds and a long and undisturbed fetch over a long period. 相似文献
1000.
Luis Alejandro Morales-Marín Kwok Pan Chun Howard Simon Wheater Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(4):657-679
Nutrient loadings in many river catchments continue to increase due to rapid expansion of agriculture, urban and industrial development, and population growth. Nutrient enrichment of water bodies has intensified eutrophication which degrades water quality and ecosystem health. In this study, we carried out a trend analysis of total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads in the South Saskatchewan River (SSR) catchment using a novel approach to analyse nutrient time series. Seasonal analysis of trends at each of the water quality stations was performed to determine the relationships between annual flow regimes and nutrient loads in the catchment, in particular, the influence of the high spring runoff on nutrient export. Decadal analysis was also performed to determine the long-term relationships of nutrients with anthropogenic changes in the catchment. Although it was found that seasonal and historical variability of nutrient load trends is mainly determined by streamflow regime changes, there is evidence that increases in nitrogen concentration can also be attributed to anthropogenic changes. 相似文献