Evaluation of probabilistic precipitation forecast determined from WRF forecasted amounts

This paper examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecast amounts from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs over Central and West Africa. A one season period (June–September 2010) was used to investigate the quantitative precipitation forecast–probability relationship. The predictive capability of this relationship was then tested on an independent sample of data (June–September 2011); 2010 and 2011 were wet and dry years, respectively. The results show that rainfall is less likely to occur in those areas where the model indicates no precipitation than it is elsewhere in the domain. Rainfall is more likely to occur in those regions where precipitation is predicted, especially where the predicted precipitation amounts are largest. The probabilities of rainfall forecasts based on this relationship are found to possess skill as measured by relative operating characteristic curves, reliability diagrams, and Brier skill scores. Skillful forecasts from the technique exist throughout 24-h periods for which WRF output was available. The results suggest that this forecasting tool might assist forecasters throughout the season in a wide variety of weather events and not only in areas of difficult-to-forecast convective systems.     

Catchment precipitation processes in the San Francisco valley in southern Ecuador: combined approach using high-resolution radar images and in situ observations

The precise estimation of precipitation quantities in tropical mountain regions is in great demand by ecological and hydrological studies, due to the heterogeneity of the rainfall distribution and the lack of meteorological station data. This study uses radar images and ground station data to provide the required high-resolution precipitation maps. Also wind data are taken into account, due to its influence on the precipitation formation and to demonstrate the relation between synoptic wind, topography and the precipitation distribution inside small mountain valleys. The study analyses the rainfall distribution and amounts of 4 days inside the San Francisco Valley, a small catchment in the tropical Andes of southern Ecuador, representing different seasons and the typical atmospheric flows, which are correlated to the annual precipitation map. The results show that the rainfall distribution and amounts are generally defined by the wind direction and velocity, besides the topographic location in relation to the main barriers and pathways. The dominant wind direction causes a division of the catchment in a wetter eastern and a dryer western part. Moreover, the annual seasons are reversed; the main rainy season for the eastern part occurs between June and August, while the western part reaches the precipitation maximum between January and March. This may have influence on the species composition at the different slopes and the annual hydrological cycle inside the catchment.     

Temperature response to future urbanization and climate change

This study examines the impact of future urban expansion on local near-surface temperature for Sydney (Australia) using a future climate scenario (A2). The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the present (1990–2009) and future (2040–2059) climates of the region at 2-km spatial resolution. The standard land use of the model was replaced with a more accurate dataset that covers the Sydney area. The future simulation incorporates the projected changes in the urban area of Sydney to account for the expected urban expansion. A comparison between areas with projected land use changes and their surroundings was conducted to evaluate how urbanization and global warming will act together and to ascertain their combined effect on the local climate. The analysis of the temperature changes revealed that future urbanization will strongly affect minimum temperature, whereas little impact was detected for maximum temperature. The minimum temperature changes will be noticeable throughout the year. However, during winter and spring these differences will be particularly large and the increases could be double the increase due to global warming alone at 2050. Results indicated that the changes were mostly due to increased heat capacity of urban structures and reduced evaporation in the city environment.     

Density-Stratified Flow Events in Great Salt Lake,Utah, USA: Implications for Mercury and Salinity Cycling

Density stratification in saline and hypersaline water bodies from throughout the world can have large impacts on the internal cycling and loading of salinity, nutrients, and trace elements. High temporal resolution hydroacoustic and physical/chemical data were collected at two sites in Great Salt Lake (GSL), a saline lake in the western USA, to understand how density stratification may influence salinity and mercury (Hg) distributions. The first study site was in a causeway breach where saline water from GSL exchanges with less saline water from a flow restricted bay. Near-surface-specific conductance values measured in water at the breach displayed a good relationship with both flow and wind direction. No diurnal variations in the concentration of dissolved (<0.45 μm) methylmercury (MeHg) were observed during the 24-h sampling period; however, the highest proportion of particulate Hg_total and MeHg loadings was observed during periods of elevated salinity. The second study site was located on the bottom of GSL where movement of a high-salinity water layer, referred to as the deep brine layer (DBL), is restricted to a naturally occurring 1.5-km-wide “spillway” structure. During selected time periods in April/May, 2012, wind-induced flow reversals in a railroad causeway breach, separating Gunnison and Gilbert Bays, were coupled with high-velocity flow pulses (up to 55 cm/s) in the DBL at the spillway site. These flow pulses were likely driven by a pressure response of highly saline water from Gunnison Bay flowing into the north basin of Gilbert Bay. Short-term flow reversal events measured at the railroad causeway breach have the ability to move measurable amounts of salt and Hg from Gunnison Bay into the DBL. Future disturbance to the steady state conditions currently imposed by the railroad causeway infrastructure could result in changes to the existing chemical balance between Gunnison and Gilbert Bays. Monitoring instruments were installed at six additional sites in the DBL during October 2012 to assess impacts from any future modifications to the railroad causeway.     

Geophysical exploration on the subsurface geology of La Garrotxa monogenetic volcanic field (NE Iberian Peninsula)

We applied self-potential (SP) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to the exploration of the uppermost part of the substrate geology and shallow structure of La Garrotxa monogenetic volcanic field, part of the European Neogene–Quaternary volcanic province. The aim of the study was to improve knowledge of the shallowest part of the feeding system of these monogenetic volcanoes and of its relationship with the subsurface geology. This study complements previous geophysical studies carried out at a less detailed scale and aimed at identifying deeper structures, and together will constitute the basis to establish volcanic susceptibility in La Garrotxa. SP study complemented previous smaller-scale studies and targeted key areas where ERT could be conducted. The main new results include the generation of resistivity models identifying dykes and faults associated with several monogenetic cones. The combined results confirm that shallow tectonics controlling the distribution of the foci of eruptive activity in this volcanic zone mainly correspond to NNW–SSE and accessorily by NNE–SSW Neogene extensional fissures and faults and concretely show the associated magmatic intrusions. These structures coincide with the deeper ones identified in previous studies, and show that previous Alpine tectonic structures played no apparent role in controlling the loci of this volcanism. Moreover, the results obtained show that the changes in eruption dynamics occurring at different vents located at relatively short distances in this volcanic area are controlled by shallow stratigraphical, structural and hydrogeological differences underneath these monogenetic volcanoes.     

Tertiary alkaline Roztoky Intrusive Complex, České středohoří Mts., Czech Republic: petrogenetic characteristics

The ?eské st?edoho?í Mts. is the dominant volcanic center of the Oh?e (Eger) rift zone. It hosts the Roztoky Intrusive Complex (RIC), which is made up of a caldera vent and intrusions of 33–28-Ma-old hypabyssal bodies of essexite–monzodiorite–sodalite syenite series accompanied by a radially oriented 30–25-Ma-old dike swarm comprising about 1,000 dikes. The hypabyssal rocks are mildly alkaline mostly foid-bearing types of mafic to intermediate compositions. The dike swarm consists of chemically mildly alkaline and rare strongly alkaline rocks (tinguaites). The geochemical signatures of the mildly alkaline hypabyssal and associated dike rocks of the RIC are consistent with HIMU mantle sources and contributions from lithospheric mantle. The compositional variations of essexite and monzodiorite can be best explained by fractional crystallization of parent magma without significant contributions of crustal material. On the other hand, the composition of monzosyenite, leuco-monzodiorite and sodalite syenite reflects fractional crystallization coupled with variable degrees of crustal assimilation. It is suggested that the parent magmas in the Oh?e rift were produced by an adiabatic decompression melting of ambient upper mantle in response to lithospheric extension associated with the Alpine Orogeny.     

Catastrophic,rainfall-induced debris flows in Andean villages of Tarapacá, Atacama Desert,northern Chile

In March 2012, during the rainy season in the Altiplano plateau, a >100-year return period rainfall event affected the deeply incised valleys of the Precordillera of the Tarapacá Region, northern Chile. This extreme event in a very arid region triggered a number of debris and mud flows that caused severe damage and destruction in several small villages along the Camiña and Tarapacá valleys. The highly vulnerable location of the villages on top of alluvial fans due to socioeconomic and cultural reasons is a key factor to explain the level of destruction in most villages. In this paper, this unusual, remarkable landslide event is described, and the hazard faced by these settlements for future rainfall episodes and possible mitigation measures are discussed.     

Relationship between Hypoxia and Macrobenthic Production in Chesapeake Bay

Human development has degraded Chesapeake Bay's health, resulting in an increase in the extent and severity of hypoxia (≤2 mg O₂ l^-1). The Bay's hypoxic zones have an adverse effect on both community structure and secondary production of macrobenthos. From 1996 to 2004, the effect of hypoxia on macrobenthic production was assessed in Chesapeake Bay and its three main tributaries (Potomac, Rappahannock, and York Rivers). Each year, in the summer (late July???early September), 25 random samples of the benthic macrofauna were collected from each system, and macrobenthic production in the polyhaline and mesohaline regions was estimated using Edgar's allometric equation. Fluctuations in macrobenthic production were significantly correlated with dissolved oxygen. Macrobenthic production was 90 % lower during hypoxia relative to normoxia. As a result, there was a biomass loss of ~7,320–13,200 metric tons C over an area of 7,720 km², which is estimated to equate to a 20 % to 35 % displacement of the Bay's macrobenthic productivity during the summer. While higher consumers may benefit from easy access to stressed prey in some areas, the large spatial and temporal extent of seasonal hypoxia limits higher trophic level transfer, via the inhibition of macrobenthic production. Such a massive loss of macrobenthic production would be detrimental to the overall health of the Bay, as it comes at a time when epibenthic and demersal predators have high-energy demands.     

The ICL Network on “Landslides and Cultural & Natural Heritage (LACUNHEN)”

In recent decades, the concept of cultural heritage has evolved into one that encompasses an understanding of the history of humanity, together with scientific knowledge and intellectual attitudes. This changing concept has prompted a subsequent re-evaluation of what constitutes the outstanding universal values of World Heritage sites and the operational methods for implementing the UNESCO World Heritage Convention. The scope has broadened from studying a single monument in isolation to one that values a multidimensional, multiregional, and inter-disciplinary approach and encapsulates vast spans of human history. Within this broader view, landslides and more generally slope instabilities are an important factor endangering cultural heritage sites, especially prehistoric sites, earth/rock monuments, and archaeological sites affected by environmental processes and degradation. Natural and cultural heritage sites, as well as cultural landscapes, are then tied into a common framework that the Geological Society of America has defined “Men’s legacy to Earth and Earth’s legacy to Man”. On the other hand, not too much effort has been expended in the past to develop conservation policies systematically integrating geological, geomorphological, and engineering geological aspects into daily practices. The purpose of the “LAndslides and CUltural & Natural HEritage” thematic Network (LACUNHEN) is to create a platform for scientists and practitioners who are ready to jointly contribute to safeguarding relevant endangered Natural and Cultural Heritage sites (e.g., Machu Picchu). They will share and disseminate their respective experience, demonstrating how these special “objects” require approaches, techniques, and solutions that go far beyond traditional civil engineering perspectives.