Integration of earth observation and census data for mapping a multi-temporal flood vulnerability index: a case study on Northeast Italy

Climate sciences foresee a future where extreme weather events could happen with increased frequency and strength, which would in turn increase risks of floods (i.e. the main source of losses in the world). The Mediterranean basin is considered a hot spot in terms of climate vulnerability and risk. The expected impacts of those events are exacerbated by land-use change and, in particular, by urban growth which increases soil sealing and, hence, water runoff. The ultimate consequence would be an increase of fatalities and injuries, but also of economic losses in urban areas, commercial and productive sites, infrastructures and agriculture. Flood damages have different magnitudes depending on the economic value of the exposed assets and on level of physical contact with the hazard. This work aims at proposing a methodology, easily customizable by experts’ elicitation, able to quantify and map the social component of vulnerability through the integration of earth observation (EO) and census data with the aim of allowing for a multi-temporal spatial assessment. Firstly, data on employment, properties and education are used for assessing the adaptive capacity of the society to increase resilience to adverse events, whereas, secondly, coping capacity, i.e. the capacities to deal with events during their manifestation, is mapped by aggregating demographic and socio-economic data, urban growth analysis and memory on past events. Thirdly, the physical dimension of exposed assets (susceptibility) is assessed by combining building properties acquired by census data and land-surface characteristics derived from EO data. Finally, the three components (i.e. adaptive and coping capacity and susceptibility) are aggregated for calculating the dynamic flood vulnerability index (FVI). The approach has been applied to Northeast Italy, a region frequently hit by floods, which has experienced a significant urban and economic development in the past decades, thus making the dynamic study of FVI particularly relevant. The analysis has been carried out from 1991 to 2016 at a 5-year steps, showing how the integration of different data sources allows to produce a dynamic assessment of vulnerability, which can be very relevant for planning in support of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.

     

A novel methodological approach for land subsidence prediction through data assimilation techniques

Computational Geosciences - Anthropogenic land subsidence can be evaluated and predicted by numerical models, which are often built over deterministic analyses. However, uncertainties and...     

Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.     

The amphipod Talitrus saltator as a bioindicator of human trampling on sandy beaches

The present paper assesses the use of the supralittoral amphipod Talitrus saltator as a bioindicator of the effects of human trampling on the supralittoral sandy band. Samplings in delimited areas were carried out at sites subjected to different human impact. The results showed a strong negative correlation between the number of swimmers and the sandhopper population density, while there was no clear relationship between sandhopper abundance and the other factors considered: granulometry, compactness and organic carbon content of the sand, and trace metal contents in the sand and sandhoppers. A field test of trampling conducted in a confined space showed its direct negative effect on sandhopper survival. However, trace metal analysis confirmed the ability of T. saltator to bioaccumulate some elements (Hg, Zn, Cu, Cd). Our study demonstrates that T. saltator is a good bioindicator of human impact in the supralittoral zone of sandy shores.     

The Cabo Frio upwelling overrides geographical patterns in the population dynamics of the shrimp Artemesia longinaris Spence Bate, 1888 (Decapoda: Penaeidae)

Upwelling areas are among the most productive ecosystems on the planet, influencing the biology of marine organisms. This study investigated the population dynamics of the shrimp Artemesia longinaris in two regions in southeastern Brazil, one inside (Macaé—Rio de Janeiro State) and one outside (Ubatuba—State of São Paulo) the Cabo Frio upwelling area. The aim was to verify the influence of the upwelling phenomenon on the abundance, growth, longevity, size of sexual maturity, and reproductive period of the species. In total, 188,902 individuals were captured at Macaé and 3,461 at Ubatuba. Individuals captured at Macaé showed larger maximum size, higher longevity, and slower growth rate, besides reaching sexual maturity at larger sizes than at Ubatuba. Continuous reproduction was observed in both regions, with juvenile recruitment peaks in spring and summer. Local conditions observed at Macaé were influenced by the Cabo Frio upwelling zone, characterized by productive and cooler waters that are around 20°C during most of the year. The upwelling phenomenon is probably the main factor influencing the population parameters studied here, changing the geographic patterns previously observed for the variation of these parameters in A. longinaris.     

Reproductive biology of Parazoanthus axinellae (Schmidt, 1862) and Savalia savaglia (Bertoloni, 1819) (Cnidaria,Zoantharia) from the NW Mediterranean coast

Despite the wide distribution of zoanthids, little is known about their pattern of reproduction. Here we investigate the reproductive biology of two Mediterranean species, the common Parazoanthus axinellae (Schmidt) and the rare Savalia savaglia (Bertoloni). For both species, samples were collected during an annual cycle, from January to December 2005, in the Western Mediterranean (Ligurian Sea, Italy). Both species are gonochoric. In P. axinellae the sex‐ratio (n colonies = 30) showed a slight predominance of male colonies (M/F = 1.35), whereas in the population of S. savaglia (n colonies = 15) a predominance of females was found (M/F = 0.3). In P. axinellae the first gametocytes were visible in March, whereas in S. savaglia they became visible in May. Both species reproduce at the end of autumn when seawater temperature begins to decrease. Parazoanthus axinellae (10 m depth) spawns eggs and sperms in November, whereas S. savaglia (67 m depth) spawns in December. In P. axinellae sexes were segregated on a rocky wall, with males occurring deeper, whereas male and female colonies of S. savaglia were irregularly dispersed in the population. The maximum number of oocytes differed between the species, being higher in P. axinellae than in S. savaglia.     

Reef status in the Rasfari region (North Malé Atoll,Maldives) five years before the mass mortality event of 1998

The Maldives was severely hit by massive coral bleaching and subsequent mortality in 1998. The results of reef monitoring in the following years have supported contrasting views about their recovery potential, partly because of the scarcity of information on the situation before 1998. Quantitative data on coral assemblages collected in 1993 in the Rasfari region (North Malé Atoll) may provide a base-line for the evaluation of the present status of the Maldivian reefs. Five years before the 1998 mortality, most coral communities appeared to be similar, in terms of both coral cover and growth-form composition, to those described in 1958 and 1964, notwithstanding increased human pressure and local events such as minor bleaching episodes in 1987 and crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) attacks in 1989. Three lessons can be learnt from these results to help to understand the present situation, some ten years after the 1998 mass mortality. First, Maldivian reefs proved in the past to be capable of maintaining flourishing coral life despite various disturbances. Second, four years had been sufficient for complete reef recovery after a (minor) bleaching event. Third, recovery after both COTS attack and bleaching follows a predictable path suggesting that the presence of a three-dimensional community structure, which should reduce post settlement mortality of coral recruits, is essential for rapid coral recovery. As coral recruitment remains high and large tabular Acropora colonies are now reappearing, it is expected that Maldivian reefs should return to their original condition within the next few years.     

Comparative Study of the Three-Dimensional Thermodynamical Structure of the Inner Corona of Solar Minimum Carrington Rotations 1915 and 2081

Using differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) based on time series of EUV images, we carry out a quantitative comparative analysis of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the electron density and temperature of the inner corona (\(r<1.25\,\mathrm{R}_{\odot}\)) between two specific rotations selected from the last two solar minima, namely Carrington Rotations (CR)1915 and CR-2081. The analysis places error bars on the results because of the systematic uncertainty of the sources. While the results for CR-2081 are characterized by a remarkable north–south symmetry, the southern hemisphere for CR-1915 exhibits higher densities and temperatures than the northern hemisphere. The core region of the streamer belt in both rotations is found to be populated by structures whose temperature decreases with height (called “down loops” in our previous articles). They are characterized by plasma \(\beta\gtrsim1\), and may be the result of the efficient dissipation of Alfvén waves at low coronal heights. The comparative analysis reveals that the low latitudes of the equatorial streamer belt of CR-1915 exhibit higher densities than for CR-2081. This cannot be explained by the systematic uncertainties. In addition, the southern hemisphere of the streamer belt of CR-1915 is characterized by higher temperatures and density scale heights than for CR-2081. On the other hand, the coronal hole region of CR-1915 shows lower temperatures than for CR-2081. The reported differences are in the range \({\approx}\,10\,\mbox{--}\,25\%\), depending on the specific physical quantity and region that is compared, as fully detailed in the analysis. For other regions and/or physical quantities, the uncertainties do not allow assessing the thermodynamical differences between the two rotations. Future investigation will involve a DEMT analysis of other Carrington rotations selected from both epochs, and also a comparison of their tomographic reconstructions with magnetohydrodynamical simulations of the inner corona.     

Hydrodynamic and isotopic investigations for evaluating the mechanisms and amount of groundwater seepage through a rockslide dam

This study addresses the influence of landslide dams on surface water drainage and groundwater flow. In the study area of Scanno Lake and Sagittario River (Central Italy), a limestone rockslide‐avalanche formed a lake, which has an outlet that is occasionally active, showing infiltration into the rockslide dam. Several springs are present at the lake's base and are partly fed by seepage through the rockslide debris. Piezometric surveys, discharge measurements, pumping tests and chemical analyses are tools used to build a conceptual model of the groundwater flow and to evaluate the flow through the rockslide debris. Seasonal water isotopic signatures validate the assumed model, showing a mixing of infiltration recharge and groundwater seepage throughout the rockslide debris. Various recharge areas have been found for springs, pointing out those directly fed by the rockslide debris aquifer. Hypotheses about seasonal groundwater mixing between the regional carbonate aquifer and the rockslide debris aquifer are supported by isotope results. Seasonal changes in groundwater table level due to recharge and surface losses from seasonal outlet have been correlated with isotopic groundwater composition from the rockslide debris aquifer and the downstream springs; this relationship highlights the role of the rockslide dam body on the hydrodynamics of the studied area. Relationships between surface waters and groundwater in the area have been completely understood on the basis of water isotopic fingerprinting, finally obtaining a complete evaluation of groundwater renewable resources and its regimen. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.