Influence of calibration methodology on ground water flow predictions

We constructed a numerical model of transient ground water flow and solute transport for a portion of the Biscayne Aquifer in Florida, and calibrated the model with three different combinations of data from a 193-day period: head (h) data alone, data on h and ground water discharge to a canal (q), and data on h, q, and ground water chloride concentration (C). We used each of the three calibrated models to predict h and q during a 182-day test period separate from the calibration period. All three calibrated models predicted h equally well during the test period (r = 0.95, where r = 1 indicates perfect agreement between measured and simulated values), though the model calibrated on h alone had significantly different parameter values than the other two models. Predictions of q during the test period depended on calibration methodology; models calibrated with multiple targets simulated q more accurately than the model calibrated on h alone (r = 0.79 compared to r = 0.49). Based on the results of these simulations, we conclude: (1) Post-calibration prediction is important in assessing the value of different data types in automated calibration; (2) inverse-solution uniqueness is not a requirement for accurate h predictions; (3) relatively simple models can predict with reasonable accuracy transient ground water flow in a complex aquifer, and parameters governing this prediction can be estimated by nonlinear regression methods that incorporate both h and q data; (4) addition of C data to the calibration did not improve model predictive capacity because the information in the C data was similar to that in the q data, from the perspective of model calibration (the subsurface chemical signal in question was controlled mainly by seepage of high-chloride canal water into the low-chloride ground water system).     

Capture Zones for Simple Aquifers

Abstract. The protection and cleanup of aquifers is a matter of high priority for all states and the federal government. One concept that is receiving increased attention is that of wellhead protection. Capture zones showing the area influenced by a well within a certain time are useful for both aquifer protection and cleanup. If hydrodynamic dispersion is neglected, a deterministic curve defines the capture zone. Analytical expressions for the capture zones can be derived for simple aquifers. However, the capture zone equations are transcendental and cannot be explicitly solved for the coordinates of the capture zone boundary. Fortunately, an iterative scheme allows the solution to proceed quickly and efficiently even on a modest personal computer. Three forms of the analytical solution must be used in an iterative scheme to cover the entire region of interest, after the extreme values of the x coordinate are determined by an iterative solution. The resulting solution is a discrete one, and usually 100-1000 intervals along the x-axis are necessary for a smooth definition of the capture zone. The presented program is written in FORTRAN and has been used in a variety of computing environments. No graphics capability is included with the program; it is assumed the user has access to a commercial package. The superposition of capture zones for multiple wells is expected to be satisfactory if the spacing is not too close. Because this program deals with simple aquifers, the results rarely will be the final word in a real application. However, the program is useful as a first phase in developing wellhead protection or aquifer cleanup schemes.     

Lightcurve Analysis of Four New Monolithic Fast-Rotating Asteroids

We present lightcurves and analysis for four new monolithic fast-rotating asteroids: 2000 AG₆, 2000 DO₈, 2000 EB₁₄, and 2000 HB₂₄. Their rotation periods of 4.60, 1.30, 107.47, and 13.05 min place them well below the critical threshold for the rotation rate of strengthless prolate ellipsoids, as we demonstrate. These four objects join the five previously identified fast-rotating asteroids. The sharp segregation in spin rates between these nine objects and asteroids with more typical spin rates is somewhat puzzling. No observed objects larger than about 200 m spin with rates faster than the critical rate for strengthless prolate ellipsoids, while no objects smaller than 200 m have shown spin rates slower than this critical limit. We hypothesize that these small, fast-rotating objects are representative of the building blocks of the “rubble pile” asteroids and are in fact derived from impacts into already existing “rubble piles.”     

Early Devensian sediments and palaeovenvironmental evidence from the excavations at the Royal Oak Portal Paddington,West London,UK

This paper discusses the results of the investigation of Pleistocene sediments at the Royal Oak Portal (ROP) site on the new Crossrail scheme near Paddington Station, London. The site was sampled and recorded in May 2011 by archaeologists from Oxford Archaeology commissioned by Crossrail Ltd. The investigation revealed a sedimentary sequence associated with cool climate waterlain deposition towards the edge of the River Westbourne floodplain. During excavation an assemblage of around 100 identifiable large mammal bones was recovered, dating to the Late Pleistocene. The major concentration of bones, from bison and reindeer, was located and excavated from a shallow sequence of sediments. Analysis of the bones indicates that they represent a natural death assemblage, scavenged and subsequently disarticulated, transported by water, exposed and further dispersed and broken by trampling. The site is of regional and national importance because the assemblage derives from a well-constrained geological context, with associated dating evidence suggesting accumulation during the later parts of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 and continuing within MIS 4. The site is also of significance because it is one of a growing number of recently discovered sites away from the main fluvial archive for the British Middle and Upper Pleistocene. These sites have the potential to add significantly to our understanding of parts of the Pleistocene record that remain difficult to document through the investigation of the more active systems associated with major rivers such as the Thames, Severn or Trent.     

Trace metal assessment in soils in a small city and its rural surroundings,Pensacola, FL,USA

This study assesses the origin and pollution of trace metals in surface soils in a region with contrasting land uses (urban vs. rural). Principal component analysis (PCA) reveals that Cr and Ni are predominantly of geogenic origin. These two trace metals are also the only ones with statistically significant correlations with soil particle size and organic matter content. Copper, Pb and Zn, and possibly Hg, are of anthropogenic origin, but their concentrations rarely reach levels described as strongly polluted by pollution indexes. The concentrations of these anthropogenic trace metals are statistically not different in urban and rural areas, except for Pb that is higher in the urban area. This general lack of a difference between the two land uses indicates that the influence of this small urban area on trace metal concentrations in soils is minor. Lead and Zn have the most, but still a modest number, of strongly polluted sites, mainly in an industrial part of the city. GIS analysis shows that, based on the pollution load index (PLI), overall concentrations of trace metals also reach their highest levels in that industrial area. These observations indicate that the influence of industry on trace metal pollution in soil exceeds that of other urban activities in the region. Local background concentrations were found to be very different from general crustal background concentrations. This demonstrates the importance of the careful selection of a background type in studies like this.