Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely?

A number of examples are presented to substantiate that submarine landslides have occurred along most continental margins and along several volcano flanks. Their properties of importance for tsunami generation (i.e. physical dimensions, acceleration, maximum velocity, mass discharge, and travel distance) can all gain extreme values compared to their subaerial counterparts. Hence, landslide tsunamis may also be extreme and have regional impact. Landslide tsunami characteristics are discussed explaining how they may exceed tsunamis induced by megathrust earthquakes, hence representing a significant risk even though they occur more infrequently. In fact, submarine landslides may cause potentially extreme tsunami run-up heights, which may have consequences for the design of critical infrastructure often based on unjustifiably long return periods. Giant submarine landslides are rare and related to climate changes or glacial cycles, indicating that giant submarine landslide tsunami hazard is in most regions negligible compared to earthquake tsunami hazard. Large-scale debris flows surrounding active volcanoes or submarine landslides in river deltas may be more frequent. Giant volcano flank collapses at the Canary and Hawaii Islands developed in the early stages of the history of the volcanoes, and the tsunamigenic potential of these collapses is disputed. Estimations of recurrence intervals, hazard, and uncertainties with today’s methods are discussed. It is concluded that insufficient sampling and changing conditions for landslide release are major obstacles in transporting a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) approach from earthquake to landslide tsunamis and that the more robust Scenario-Based Tsunami Hazard Assessment (SBTHA) approach will still be most efficient to use. Finally, the needs for data acquisition and analyses, laboratory experiments, and more sophisticated numerical modelling for improved understanding and hazard assessment of landslide tsunamis are elaborated.     

Application of stable isotope analysis for improved understanding of the methane budget: comparison of TROICA measurements with TM3 model simulations

Presented is a detailed comparison of CH₄ and δ¹³C–CH₄ measurements with simulations of the global transport model TM3. Experimental data were obtained during campaigns along the Trans-Siberian railroad in the framework of the TROICA project. Two summer (1999 and 2001) and one spring (2003) expeditions are evaluated. Model simulations include sensitivity tests to further investigate the isotopic composition of natural gas and emissions from Siberian wetlands. Comparison of the average mixing ratio of methane and its isotopic composition (δ¹³C) has been performed for different geographic zones, including the European part of Russia, Western Siberia and Central Siberia. Simulations are in reasonable agreement with the measurements for the European part of Russia and confirm a high contribution of natural gas to the observed methane levels. An increase of emission from bogs shifts the simulated methane isotopic composition closer to the observations. The relative importance of the Western Siberia emissions in current inventories is underestimated in comparison with other wetland regions in the former USSR. Simulated average mixing ratios are in a good agreement with the observations in Central Siberia, while ¹³C(CH₄) values tend to be higher than measured in all considered scenarios. These results point to a bias in the modeled source mixture over Russia, which could be repaired by shifting emissions from isotopically heavy methane sources (e.g. coal, oil or biomass burning) to light sources (e.g. wetlands, ruminants, waste treatment). Alternatively, the average isotopic signature of Siberian wetlands may be lighter than expected.     

Very precise orbits of 1998 Leonid meteors

Abstract— Seventy-five orbits of Leonid meteors obtained during the 1998 outburst are presented. Thirty-eight are precise enough to recognize significant dispersion in orbital elements. Results from the nights of 1998 November 16/17 and 17/18 differ, in agreement with the dominant presence of different dust components. The shower rate profile of 1998 November 16/17 was dominated by a broad component, rich in bright meteors. The radiant distribution is compact. The semimajor axis is confined to values close to that of the parent comet, whereas the distribution of inclination has a central condensation in a narrow range. On the other hand, 1998 November 17/18 was dominated by dust responsible for a more narrow secondary peak in the flux curve. The declination of the radiant and the inclination of the orbit are more widely dispersed. The argument of perihelion, inclination, and the perihelion distance are displaced. These data substantiate the hypothesis that trapping in orbital resonances is important for the dynamical evolution of the broad component.     

The importance of talc and chlorite “hybrid” rocks for volatile recycling through subduction zones; evidence from the high-pressure subduction mélange of New Caledonia

The transfer of fluid and trace elements from the slab to the mantle wedge cannot be adequately explained by simple models of slab devolatilization. The eclogite-facies mélange belt of northern New Caledonia represents previously subducted oceanic crust and contains a significant proportion of talc and chlorite schists associated with serpentinite. These rocks host large quantities of H₂O and CO₂ and may transport volatiles to deep levels in subduction zones. The bulk-rock and stable isotope compositions of talc and chlorite schist and serpentinite indicate that the serpentinite was formed by seawater alteration of oceanic lithosphere prior to subduction, whereas the talc and chlorite schists were formed by fluid-induced metasomatism of a mélange of mafic, ultramafic and metasedimentary rocks during subduction. In subduction zones, dehydration of talc and chlorite schists should occur at sub-arc depths and at significantly higher temperatures (∼ 800°C) than other lithologies (400–650°C). Fluids released under these conditions could carry high trace-element contents and may trigger partial melting of adjacent pelitic and mafic rocks, and hence may be vital for transferring volatile and trace elements to the source regions of arc magmas. In contrast, these hybrid rocks are unlikely to undergo significant decarbonation during subduction and so may be important for recycling carbon into the deep mantle. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Experimental phase and melting relations of metapelite in the upper mantle: implications for the petrogenesis of intraplate magmas

We performed a series of piston-cylinder experiments on a synthetic pelite starting material over a pressure and temperature range of 3.0–5.0 GPa and 1,100–1,600°C, respectively, to examine the melting behaviour and phase relations of sedimentary rocks at upper mantle conditions. The anhydrous pelite solidus is between 1,150 and 1,200°C at 3.0 GPa and close to 1,250°C at 5.0 GPa, whereas the liquidus is likely to be at 1,600°C or higher at all investigated pressures, giving a large melting interval of over 400°C. The subsolidus paragenesis consists of quartz/coesite, feldspar, garnet, kyanite, rutile, ±clinopyroxene ±apatite. Feldspar, rutile and apatite are rapidly melted out above the solidus, whereas garnet and kyanite are stable to high melt fractions (>70%). Clinopyroxene stability increases with increasing pressure, and quartz/coesite is the sole liquidus phase at all pressures. Feldspars are relatively Na-rich [K/(K + Na) = 0.4–0.5] at 3.0 GPa, but are nearly pure K-feldspar at 5.0 GPa. Clinopyroxenes are jadeite and Ca-eskolaite rich, with jadeite contents increasing with pressure. All supersolidus experiments produced alkaline dacitic melts with relatively constant SiO₂ and Al₂O₃ contents. At 3.0 GPa, initial melting is controlled almost exclusively by feldspar and quartz, giving melts with K₂O/Na₂O ~1. At 4.0 and 5.0 GPa, low-fraction melting is controlled by jadeite-rich clinopyroxene and K-rich feldspar, which leads to compatible behaviour of Na and melts with K₂O/Na₂O ≫ 1. Our results indicate that sedimentary protoliths entrained in upwelling heterogeneous mantle domains may undergo melting at greater depths than mafic lithologies to produce ultrapotassic dacitic melts. Such melts are expected to react with and metasomatise the surrounding peridotite, which may subsequently undergo melting at shallower levels to produce compositionally distinct magma types. This scenario may account for many of the distinctive geochemical characteristics of EM-type ocean island magma suites. Moreover, unmelted or partially melted sedimentary rocks in the mantle may contribute to some seismic discontinuities that have been observed beneath intraplate and island-arc volcanic regions.