一种新的统计回归模型及其建模方案

根据经典门限自回归模型的基本思想,引入半截多项式变换,导出了一种新的统计回归模型,并提出了相应的一整套建模方案。这种模型和建模方案的特点是:（1）解决了统计回归分析中逐段线性化模型的检验问题;（2）在确定统计回归模型中各待估参数和变量——包括门限变量、门限值、阶数、时滞和回归系数时显得十分方便、快捷。试验结果表明,根据此方案建立的统计回归模型具有较高的拟合和预报精度,同时具有良好的稳定性。     

我国月降水和气温网格点资料的处理和分析

用逐步搜索逼近法的客观分析技术计算出１９５１－１９９２年中国月降水量和月平均气温的格点资料，并利用图象识别原理对格点值和站点观测值进行了比较。     

且干布拉克蛭石的矿物学研究

本文对产于新疆且干布拉克的我国最大蛭石矿的组成、结构和谱学特征做了系统的阐述。研究表明:且干布拉克蛭石是由金云母风化而成。由于风化的不完全,该蛭石保留了许多金云母的特征。该蛭石不是个严格矿物学意义上的蛭石,它是由金云母、严格矿物学意义上的蛭石、以及两者组成的多种混层矿物的混合物。金云母风化过程中可能有杂质铁相生成。蛭石的颜色和多色性,可能起因于其中的O~(2-)→Fe~(2+23+)和Fe~(2+)→Fe~(3+)     

连结科学与社会-国际气候与社会研究所简介

国际气候与社会研究所(The International ResearchInstitute for Climate and Society,IRI)原名国际气候预测研究所,于1992年开始筹建,早期设在著名的Scripp海洋研究所(在加利福尼亚州的圣地亚哥),后于1996年迁至在纽约的哥伦比亚大学。IRI隶属于哥伦比亚地球研究所,坐落在景色秀丽的Lamont-Doherty地球观象台。IRI的使命是提高社会认识、预测和应对气候变化影响的能力,以改进人居环境,确保生态系统的永续性。     

国土资源信息化进程中的软件项目外包管理研究

本文简要论述了软件项目、软件项目管理及国土资源信息化建设特点,概括分析了国土资源行业的软件项目特点,总结了我国国土资源未来信息化发展趋势,同时结合当今信息化及国土资源行业软件项目特征,提出了在国土资源信息化建设进程中对于外包软件项目管理实施中需要注意的一些问题     

地电故障数据处理系统

地电故障数据处理系统软件研制的目的在于当地电仪器出现故障,无法采集到仪器内存中原始数据时,能根据地电纸带上仅有的一些原始数据,利用该系统可以准确、快速、方面地转换成特定格式的数据文件,及时上报至中国地震局。该系统的开发,将会减轻台站工作人员的负担,杜绝了数据格式的不正解性,防止了数据迟报现象的发生。     

Spatial-temporal pattern and differences of land use changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China during 1975�C2005

Regional land use changes are an important part of global changes. The research on land use changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China attracts a lot of attention owing to the Three Gorges Dam building. The Three Gorges Reservoir Area becomes one of the important research areas. This study analyzed the transforming processes and traits of each land use type and the regional differences of land use changes during the past 30 years, summarized the distribution of different land use types in different buffer zones and regresses the equation areas and different buffer distances based on buffer analyses and regression analyses, and then analyzed the transforming rules in different buffer distances, got the optimal influence distances. The research results indicate that, (1) cultivated land lies at the northwest of the reservoir and was decreasing, however, the construction land was increasing, especially the urban construction land, a large number of land was flooded because of the reservoir water level rise; (2) urban area was sprawling quickly in developed and neighboring areas, and a great deal of cultivated land and a considerable amount of grassland were occupied; in the earlier time, rural settlements occupied lots of cultivated land and a sum of forestry land in the later time; (3) the optimum influenced distances for cultivated land and forestry land were 10–35 km, and for urban and rural settlements were in 5–20 km. Overall, this research can reflect the spatial-temporal characteristics of land use changes during the 30 years, and it is helpful for urban planning and land use planning in the reservoir area.     

Energy dissipation through wind-generated breaking waves

Wave breaking is an important process that controls turbulence properties and fluxes of heat and mass in the upper oceanic layer.A model is described for energy dissipation per unit area at the ocean surface attributed to wind-generated breaking waves,in terms of ratio of energy dissipation to energy input,windgenerated wave spectrum,and wave growth rate.Also advanced is a vertical distribution model of turbulent kinetic energy,based on an exponential distribution method.The result shows that energy dissipation rate depends heavily on wind speed and sea state.Our results agree well with predictions of previous works.     

南昌地震台钻孔应变同震响应分析

通过总结2007年5月以来南昌地震台TJ-2钻孔应变仪的同震效应,并与同期中国地震台网(CSN)提供的全球大震目录中的数据进行对比分析,绘出了震级与震中距的对数关系图,得出南昌地震台体应变仪的映震能力的表达式近似为Ms=1.381gD+ 1.1.     

基于MRPs无陀螺卫星姿态确定的抗差估计算法

针对精确航天器姿态问题,采用修正罗德里格参数(MRPs)表示姿态,用动力学方程进行角速率的传播,分别基于等价协方差和观测残差统计特性的协方差调整方法,实现UKF算法的抗差效果,并通过仿真验证该方法的有效性。仿真结果表明：在含有粗差的情况下,两种抗差UKF算法均能得到稳定的状态估计值,而第二种方法计算效率更高。