以流动看世界——基于彼得·阿迪《流动性》的研究述评

“流动”正改变着人们的生存、生活和生产方式。流动性经历了从学科间独立的分散研究,到以地理学和社会学为主导的多学科研究,再转向新流动性范式下的跨学科研究。其中,彼得·阿迪（Peter Adey）的《流动性》（Mobility）（第二版）是一部梳理流动性演变脉络、解读理论并联系案例和方法的力作。因此,文章从流动性研究产生的背景、主要内容、研究方法与运用3个方面凝练该书观点,指出未来研究要跳出以二元对立看问题的思维方式,用一种网络化、关系式和辩证的思维洞察世界,在深度理解流动的意义、政治、实践和媒介基础上进行流动性研究。最后,文章基于国内研究现状,提出未来可以从流动性政治、流动性时空维度、旅游与流动性、流动主体的多元化、流动性研究方法等几个方面展开深入研究。     

芦山M7．0地震余震分布特征

使用双差定位方法,对2013年4月20日08时02分芦山 M 7．0地震后近10天的余震进行重新定位,获得精度较高的重定位结果;在此基础上,对余震空间分布特征进行研究,推测芦山主震的发震断层可能为大川-双石主断裂东侧的一条次级隐伏逆冲断层。     

Parsivel~激光降水粒子谱仪及其在气象领域的应用

降水粒子特性是大气运动和云内微物理过程的综合结果,在云降水物理及人工影响天气领域有着重要的意义。传统的测量方法不适合对大量数据分析寻找规律,德国OTT公司的Parsivel激光降水粒子谱测量系统可以较好解决自动测量难题。该仪器是以激光测量为基础的粒子测量传感器,采用平行激光束和光电管阵列结合,当有降水粒子穿越采样空间时,自动记录遮挡物的宽度,通过穿越时间计算降水粒子的尺度和速度,根据各种参数的综合信息对降水粒子进行分类,并能够以数字形式显示瞬时降水强度、降水粒子总数、累积降水量、降水时的能见度和雷达反射因子,以图形方式显示降水粒子尺度谱、速度谱、降水粒子分类且自动生成天气现象代码,实现天气现象的自动识别。激光降水粒子谱仪主要用于气象水文观测。在雷达气象学领域可用于Z/R关系的拟合修正,比传统的用雨量筒观测数据拟合效果好得多;由降水粒子谱仪测量雨滴的降落速度,可以对天气雷达垂直向上测量的粒子径向速度谱进行校正。人工影响天气的效果检验一直是一个难题,自然降水粒子谱分布形式与人工催化以后的降水粒子谱型理论上应当具有较大的差别,人工增雨作业降水滴谱变化物理响应和降水强度时间变化响应都有明显的区别。如果能够实时检测到这些差别,就能够充分说明人工催化的有效性。未来如果能够进行联网观测记录区域性降水、降雹,就有充分证据表明人影作业的有效性,在定量化作业效果评估以及灾害损失评估等方面应用潜力巨大。利用该仪器已经对一年的自然降水过程进行了连续观测,并将所获得的降水粒子谱、雨滴浓度值随时间变化状况与卫星反演的云顶有效粒子半径时间变化趋势进行了对比,发现有较好的一致性。     

MODIS沙尘暴判识方法与业务系统

为了利用MODIS资料对沙尘暴的范围和强度进行定量判识,应用2002--2004年多次MODIS资料,通过对沙尘暴、云、雪和沙漠光谱特征的分析,构建了定量判识沙尘暴范围和强度的两个沙尘指数.利用2002-2007年数次沙尘暴过程对沙尘指数的判别效果进行检验,表明构建的两个M()DIS沙尘指数能够有效地监测沙尘暴的范围和强度,且方法简单,适用于业务应用.针对目前西北沙尘暴遥感监测业务服务以定性图像为主,服务产品较为单一的问题,对MODIS沙尘暴判识方法进行业务化,并结合GIS进行沙尘暴影响范围的分析,开发研制了自动运行的MODIS沙尘暴监测和影响评估业务系统.系统具生成沙尘暴MODIS影像图、沙尘暴范围和强度遥感监测图、沙尘暴影响土地类型图、全国各省(直辖市)沙尘面积统计表、全国不同土地类型沙尘暴影响面积统计表、甘肃省各县沙尘暴的影响面积统计表和甘肃省不同土地类型沙尘影响面积统计表等功能,为沙尘暴定量和精细服务提供了丰富的产品.     

A statistical predicting scheme of the intensity of the sth over the western North Pacific

By performing error analysis of the information from the 48-hr forecasting charts of the 500-hPa fields by the B model over eastern Asia in the period of July to September 1982 and expansions of the height fields of westerlies and the subtropical zone by use of the Chebyshev polynomial and EOF, respectively, a scheme is developed for predicting the synchronous STH coefficient (i. e. time coefficient) in terms of the Chebyshev one, thus making possible statistical forecasting of the 500-hPa subtropical field within 48 hr. Tests with independent samples indicate that, to a certain extent, this scheme can be used in operational prediction as a reference.     

基于BP神经网络的地质灾害细网格预报模型

地质灾害成因复杂,其中以气象因素、地质地貌因素引发的地质灾害最为常见.以金华地区为例,通过对金华市地质地貌条件及其对地质灾害点的调查,将全区划分为4个地质灾害隐患风险等级的网格区域.在此基础上利用金华中尺度气象资料,采用BP神经网络模型,建立地质灾害细网格预报模型,对该模型进行模拟和预报试验.结果表明,合理的隐患风险等级分区能使预报模型更符合科学规律,而采用分布较细的中尺度资料作为预报因子能进一步提高预报精度.模型的预报结果达到一定的可信度,为防灾减灾工作提供了科学依据.     

专项气象服务经济效益的评价理论与技术

当前，由于缺乏对气象服务投入量与产出量准确而完整的统计，要对气象服务的各种经济效益作出总体评价是困难的。然而，在专项气象服务中，却不乏原始、完整而准确的资料。作者从此出发，讨论了专项气象服务经济效益评价的理论。并通过实地调查，以彭州市气象局几项专项气象服务为例探讨了评价技术。     

Estimated reproductive success of brooders and heritability of growth traits for large yellow croaker (Larimichthys crocea) using microsatellites

We estimated the reproductive success of adult brood fish and the heritability of growth-related traits for large yellow croaker (Larimichthys crocea). We created two independent full-factorial cross groups (1 and 2) by crossing 4 males×4 females and 4 males×3 females, respectively. We measured the body weight (BW), body length (BL), and body height (BH) of 281 individuals from group 1 and 318 individuals from group 2 at 20 months post hatch (harvest age). We also collected a tissue sample from each individual. The parents and offspring were genotyped using six polymorphic microsatellites. Of the 599 offspring, 99.2% were assigned to a single pair of parents. In both groups, some parent pairs produced a large number of offsprings while other pairs did not produce any offspring. The genetic diversity and putative Ne were lower in the offsprings than in the parents in both groups. The heritability estimates at 20-month age were 0.13±0.10 for BW, 0.19±0.13 for BL, and 0.09±0.06 for BH. The genetic and phenotype correlation between BW, BL, and BH was close to 1. The results provide basic information for selective breeding and further genetic characterization of large yellow croaker.     

民和盆地上侏罗统湿型冲积扇沉积

本文通过岩相特征、粘土矿物分布、早期成岩矿物组合、微量元素等特征的综合分析，认为民和盆地上侏罗统下部为一较典型的湿型冲积扇沉积。冲积扇扇中发育河道冲刷充填和漫流沉积，而泥石流不发育。沉积层序与现代湿型冲积扇可对比。扇体中粘土岩及早期成岩矿物组合中富含高岭石，应与扇体发育时的潮湿气候和弱酸性流体的较强的淋滤有关。由粘土岩中微量元素因子分析进一步表明，该地层中富硼、钒的特征与相邻非扇相地层明显不同     

Precise dating of the Dansgaard-Oeschger event 4 and its sub-cycles: Evidence from a stalagmite from Xianyun Cave in Longyan City,Fujian Province

The Dansgaard-Oeschger event 4(DO4 event) is a significant warming event that occurred in the late Marine Isotope Stage 3. At present,there are different understandings about the detailed characteristics and internal structures of the DO4 event. Based on 6 precisely-dated ²³⁰Th ages and 188 oxygen isotope data of a stalagmite(No.XYⅢ-28)from the Xianyun Cave,Fujian Province,we present δ¹⁸O time series with an average resolution of 7 yr from 29.13 to 27.94 kyr B.P. Our new stalagmites δ¹⁸O records uncover the detailed processes of the DO4 event. The onset and end time of the DO4 event recorded by the stalagmite δ¹⁸O is 28.83±0.06 and 28.46±0.06 kyr B.P.,respectively, and the duration is 0.37±0.06 kyr. Differential with abrupt change of NGRIP ice core δ¹⁸O record at the onset of DO4 based on the GICC05 layer count time scale,the Xianyun Cave δ¹⁸O shows a relatively slow change. The Xianyun stalagmite δ¹⁸O values negatively shift by 0.4‰ within 145±60 yr,which indicates that the Xianyun Cave was likely affected by the ocean-atmosphere coupling of the tropical. In addition,the Xianyun stalagmite δ¹⁸O reveals a series of sub-million-scale summer monsoon enhancement events in and around the DO4 event,corresponding to the NGRIP ice core δ¹⁸O record and the Arabian Sea basin record. Our results suggest that the East Asian summer monsoon is related to the north-high latitude temperature and the ITCZ position changes on the sub-millennium-scale event.