Anticipatory Adaptation Approaches to Climate Change--A Review and Discussion of Southern Australia’s Sustainable Water Management and Its Strategies and Shortcomings

Climate change issues has been discussed and argued for decades. It has been widely recognized that climate change will bring more serious issues to environment vulnerable areas than other areas. Southern Australia is one of the typical examples of vulnerable areas where water deficiency is enhanced by climate change. Although, this area has been successfully adapted with drought environment for decades, those shortcomings of strategies are highlighted by climate change events. In the interests of sustainable water management, Southern Australia’s experiences on possible anticipatory adaptation approaches, especially on mitigation of risks and costs of drought could be expected to provide recommendations to planning and management actions in the future     

渤中凹陷CFD18-2油田高岭石胶结作用及其对储层物性的影响

为探究成岩作用过程中所形成的次生黏土矿物对储层物性的影响,借助偏光显微镜及扫描电镜的镜下分析,并结合储层物性等数据,对渤中凹陷附近沙垒田凸起东南部CFD18-2油田东三段高岭石的特征、类型、成因及其对储层物性的影响进行了研究。研究结果表明：1）研究区高岭石为有机酸溶蚀长石形成的自生高岭石,呈现典型的"手风琴状"及"蠕虫状",常充填于粒间孔、长石次生溶孔及碳酸盐胶结物溶孔中并形成良好的晶间孔隙。2）研究区主要发育两期高岭石,第一期主要充填于早期碳酸盐胶结物溶孔中,呈微小"蠕虫状";第二期充填于铁方解石与铁白云石胶结物溶孔中,部分高岭石具碱性溶蚀特征,且第二期高岭石与晚期伊利石共生。3）研究区东三段储层具备一定的渗流能力,使长石溶蚀形成的"副产物"被流体带走;但在破坏性成岩作用下,储层渗流能力会逐渐变差,最终使得"副产物"堆积于孔隙,降低储层物性。4）高岭石及同期硅质胶结物对储层物性的影响是一把"双刃剑",当高岭石及硅质的体积分数低于6.81%时,长石溶蚀有利于改善储层物性;当高岭石及硅质的体积分数高于6.81%时,则不利于储层物性的改善。     

一种选取补偿最小二乘正则化参数的改进方法

为了改进半参数模型补偿最小二乘估计中的正则化参数选取方法,该文设计了3种方案:L-曲线法、虚拟观测法以及该文提出的改进方法以比较正则化参数的优劣。模拟算例表明,该文提出的改进方法可以有效评价正则化参数,得到的参数估值精度更高,是一种较为有效的选取补偿最小二乘最佳正则化参数的方法。     

Bouc-Wen土体动力模型的阈值应变研究

探讨Bouc-Wen土体动力模型的适用条件与参数对滞回圈的影响等。基于热力学基本定律,研究了Bouc-Wen土体动力模型的增量耗散函数表达式,讨论了不同动应变水平下某筑坝土石料的能量耗散机制。发现筑坝土石料的动力特性存在2个阈值应变,即第l和第2阈值应变。其对应的模量比分别为0.94左右及0.50～0.80之间。第2阈值应变与传统意义上以孔压升高或体积变化为标准的门槛应变相当。对进一步认识土体动应力-应变特性有一定意义。     

Intrinsic and attenuative dispersion characteristics of direct P-waves in and near the source area of the 1999 MW7.6 Chi-Chi,Taiwan, earthquake before and after the mainshock

Based on the measurement of the arrival time of maxima magnitude from band-pass filtering signals which were determined using a new Morlet wavelet multiple-filter method, we develop a method for measuring intrinsic and attenuative dispersion of the first cycle direct P-wave. We determine relative group delays of spectral components of direct P-waves for 984 ray paths from SML and ALS stations of the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network (CWBSN). Using continuous relaxation model, we deduce a new transfer function that relates intrinsic dispersion to attenuation. Based on the genetic algorithm (GA), we put forward a new inversion procedure for determining which is defined the flat part of quality factor Q(ω) spectrum, τ₁ and τ₂ parameters. The results indicate that ① The distribution of Q_m values versus epicentral distance and depth show that Q_m values linearly increase with increasing of epicentral distance and depth, and Q_m values is clearly independent of earthquakes magnitude; ② In the different depth ranges, Q_m residual show no correlation with variations in epicentral distance. Some significant changes of Q_m residual with time is likely caused by pre-seismic stress accumulation, and associated with fluid-filled higher density fractures rock volume in the source area of 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake. We confirm that Q_m residual with time anomaly appears about 2.5 years before the Chi-Chi earthquake; ③ A comparison of Q_m residual for different depth range between SML and ALS stations show that the level of stress has vertical and lateral difference; ④ The area near observation station with both anomalously increasing and decreasing averaged Q_m residual is likely an unstable environment for future strong earthquake occurrence. This study demonstrates the capability of direct P-waves dispersion for monitoring attenuation characteristics and its state changes of anelastic medium of the Earth at short propagation distance using seismograms recorded from very small events.

     

新疆7级强震前的围空特征

讨论了新疆40年代以来所发生的8次7级强震前的围空现象。结果表明,除1974年巴里坤7.1级地震因资料不全外,7级强震前均出现明显的围空现象。研究发现,这种围空一般都经历了三个过程,时间通常为10—20年。最后分析讨论了7级强震前围空的特征以及判别指标。这将为今后确定强震危险区提供依据。     

青藏高原风沙堆积对多年冻土影响研究进展

受全球气候变化和人类活动影响,青藏高原上的土地沙漠化正呈现加速发展态势。沙漠化产生的风沙堆积势必改变地表辐射和能量平衡状况,对较为敏感和脆弱的多年冻土环境造成影响,并可能影响青藏铁路路基的稳定性。因此,研究积沙对多年冻土的影响对于高原沙害防治、多年冻土保护和道路工程建设都具有重要的理论及现实意义。目前,前人已在青藏高原地表能量平衡研究方面取得了一些成果,并开始关注积沙对冻土温度影响问题。然而,由于已有观测资料的连续性、同步性和可比性等局限,对积沙地表辐射和能量平衡方面的研究还比较薄弱,积沙对冻土温度过程影响的研究结果尚不一致,而积沙对路基影响的问题也亟待开展研究。为此,本文提出了加强定位观测、开展室内低温实验以及数值模拟等建议,以期对今后的深入研究起到抛砖引玉作用。     

Pulsatory characteristics of wind velocity in sand flow over typical underlying surfaces

Pulsatory characteristics of wind velocity in sand flow over Gobi and mobile sand surface have been investigated experimentally in the wind tunnel. The primary goal of this paper is to reveal the relation- ship between pulsatory characteristics of instantaneous wind speed in sand flow and the motion state of sand grains. For a given underlying surface, pulsation of wind velocities in sand flow on different heights has a good correlation. As the space distance among different heights increases, fluctuation of instantaneous wind speed presents a decreasing trend and its amplitude is closely related to the mo- tion state of sand grains and their transport. Pulsatory intensity increases with the indicated wind speed, but its relative value does not depend on it, only agrees with height.     

绿鳍马面鲀(Navodon septentrionalis)CYP19a基因克隆与表达特征分析

利用简并引物扩增及RACE全长克隆技术, 克隆得到绿鳍马面鲀(Navodon septentrionalis)CYP19a基因cDNA全长序列。通过多序列比对, 发现具有芳香化酶特定保守序列, 包括一个I-螺旋区, 一个Ozol肽区, 一个亚铁血红素结合区域以及一个芳香化酶特异性结合区域。通过RT-PCR技术检测了其在绿鳍马面鲀成鱼各组织表达的情况, 发现其CYP19a基因只在卵巢中有表达; 同时也分析了其在不同卵巢发育期的表达情况, 发现CYP19a在卵黄发生后期表达量达到最高值, 卵巢退化吸收期表达量达到最低值。     

造山带弧形构造——西昆仑—帕米尔弧及其预测

对比利牛斯等造山带典型弧形构造的分析表明,弧形构造是造山带尤其是板内碰撞造山带的普遍特征,可分为挤压逆冲-推覆主动型构造和推覆-滑覆被动型弧形构造。西昆仑—帕米尔是与比利牛斯Basque弧在空间形态、运动学及动力学特征等方面一致的挤压逆冲-推覆主动型弧形构造,推测该弧中部存在一巨大的底部低角度逆掩断层并由根部带向北延伸达100多公里,康西瓦断裂(基底缝合带)可能是主根部逆冲断层带。