聚类分析在暴雨预报和环流形势分型中的应用

数值预报投入业务运行以来，高空形势预报具有较高的准确率，要素预报的准确率也在不断提高，对数值预报产品的释用是近年来人们极为关注的问题，作者早用数值预报５００ｈＰａ高度场及降水实况资料，采用聚类分析法，研究暴雨落区预报和我国暴雨环流形势特征，所得结果在暴雨预报业务中有一定参考价值，同时也给出我国暴雨环流型。     

MODIS遥感监测滇池蓝藻水华分布

以中分辨率的MODIS数据作为遥感影像源,运用蓝藻水华在蓝波段、红波段和近红外波段的光谱特征,使用假彩色合成法（RGB：6-2-1）和归一化植被指数法对滇池的蓝藻水华进行遥感监测。通过星地同步试验,证明了该两种方法的正确性。其中假彩色合成法通过色彩差异表现蓝藻水华,具有视觉效果较好的优点,归一化植被指数法则以数值大小的方式区别水华浓度,该方法建立反演模型后可用于定量研究。     

新沂地震台地电阻率变化与江苏邻近地区的中强震关系的研究

运用速率法、滑动傅氏对新沂地震台（以下简称新沂台）1990-1999年地电阻率观测资料进行了分析,1994年到1997年之间江苏及邻近地区发生的中强震,新沂台地电阻率3个测向有不同程度的异常与之对应。研究结果表明资料异常呈现的各向异性与孕震期的应力状态、震区构造、介质结构有关。表明了前兆异常的复杂性、多样性。     

中国区域地壳稳定性定量化评价与分区

中国地处环太平洋构造带与地中海构造带交接部位,地质构造复杂,活动性较为强烈,各种内动力地质灾害比较严重,总体看来中国区域地壳稳定性相对较差。为了使区域地壳稳定性评价与分区获得定量化认识,更好地服务于经济建设和减灾防灾,本文在分析中国现今活动的主要构造体系与内动力地质灾害的分布规律的基础上,首先进行区域地壳稳定性定量化评价待评区的划分;其次进行定量化评价指标的选定、取值、权重分配及评价标准的确定;最后运用模糊数学进行中国区域地壳稳定性定量化评价与分区。      

Vertical structures of PM10 and PM 2.5 and their dynamical character in low atmosphere in Beijing urban areas

The vertical structures and their dynamical character of PM2.5 and PM10 over Beijing urban areas are revealed using the 1 min mean continuous mass concentration data of PM2.5 and PM10 at 8, 100, and 320 m heights of the meteorological observation tower of 325 m at Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP CAS tower hereafter) on 10―26 August, 2003, as well as the daily mean mass concentration data of PM2.5 and PM10 and the continuous data of CO and NO2 at 8, 100 (low layer), 200 (middle layer), and 320 m (high layer) heights, in combination with the same period meteorological field observation data of the meteorological tower. The vertical distributions of aerosols observed on IAP CAS tower in Beijing can be roughly divided into two patterns: gradually and rapidly decreasing patterns, I.e. The vertical distribution of aerosols in calm weather or on pollution day belongs to the gradually decreasing pattern, while one on clean day or weak cold air day belongs to the rapidly decreasing pattern. The vertical distributive characters of aerosols were closely related with the dynamical/thermal structure and turbulence character of the atmosphere boundary layer. On the clean day, the low layer PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations were close to those at 8 m height, while the concentrations rapidly decreased at the high layer, and their values were only one half of those at 8 m, especially, the concentration of PM2.5 dropped even more. On the clean day, there existed stronger turbulence below 150 m, aerosols were well mixed, but blocked by the more stronger inversion layer aloft, and meanwhile, at various heights, especially in the high layer, the horizontal wind speed was larger, resulting in the rapid decrease of aerosol concentration, I.e. Resulting in the obvious vertical difference of aerosol concentrations between the low and high layers. On the pollution day, the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 at the low, middle, and high layers dropped successively by, on average, about 10% for each layer in comparison with those at 8 m height. On pollution days, in company with the low wind speed, there existed two shallow inversion layers in the boundary layer, but aerosols might be, to some extent, mixed below the inversion layer, therefore, on the pollution day the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 dropped with height slowly; and the observational results also show that the concentrations at 320 m height were obviously high under SW and SE winds, but at other heights, the concentrations were not correlated with wind directions. The computational results of footprint analysis suggest that this was due to the fact that the 320 m height was impacted by the pollutants transfer of southerly flow from the southern peripheral heavier polluted areas, such as Baoding, and Shijiazhuang of Hebei Province, Tianjin, and Shandong Province, etc., while the low layer was only affected by Beijing's local pollution source. The computational results of power spectra and periods preliminarily reveal that under the condition of calm weather, the periods of PM10 concentration at various heights of the tower were on the order of minutes, while in cases of larger wind speed, the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 at 320 m height not only had the short periods of minute-order, but also the longer periods of hour order. Consistent with the conclusion previously drawn by Ding et al., that air pollutants at different heights and at different sites in Beijing had the character of "in-phase" variation, was also observed for the diurnal variation and mean diurnal variation of PM2.5 and PM10 at various heights of the tower in this experiment, again confirming the "in-phase" temporal/spatial distributive character of air pollutants in the urban canopy of Beijing. The gentle double-peak character of the mean diurnal variation of PM2.5 and PM10 was closely related with the evident/similar diurnal variation of turbulent momentum fluxes, sensible heat fluxes, and turbulent kinetic energy at various heights in the urban canopy. Besides, under the condition of calm weather, the concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 declined with height slowly, it was 90% of 8 m concentration at the low layer, a little lesser than 90% at the middle layer, and 80% at the high layer, respectively. Under the condition of weak cold air weather, the concentration remarkably dropped with height, it was 70% of 8 m concentration at the low layer, and 20%―30% at the middle and high layers, especially the concentration of PM2.5 was even lower.     

登陆台风降水的大尺度环流诊断分析

强度相似的登陆台风造成的强降水可能差异很大.为研究大尺度环流对登陆台风降水的影响,利用热带气旋年鉴和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,运用动态合成分析方法,对比分析了登陆后48小时内降水特征迥异而强度、路径相似的两组登陆台风的大尺度环流特征.合成分析结果表明,西南气流的水汽输送对台风降水至关重要,造成大范围强降水的台风往往在登陆后仍与深厚西南急流相连并持续很长时间.高空强辐散场是登陆台风造成大范围强降水的一个基本动力特征.造成强降水的登陆台风其环境场的上升气流不仅强,其气旋性环流的伸展高度高且能长时间维持.登陆台风造成降水的范围和强度与登陆前台风下游大陆环境大气的稳定度有关.下游高温高湿的大气有利于能量尤其是潜热能的大量补充,对强降水增强和维持都十分有利.因此,大尺度环流对登陆台风降水有明显影响.其中,与台风相连的西南急流强度和深厚程度是最重要的因子,高低空辐散辐合强度、台风及环境风场结构以及台风下游大陆上空大气湿热状态等都是需要加以考虑的.     

点源冰雹云研究

本文阐述了一类新型冰雹云——点源冰雹云。文章介绍了点源冰雹云的实例、特征、演变规律、单体性质及单体之间关系等。此文还介绍了它的模式及它与传播雹云的异同。     

气侯时间序列变点的推断

本文研究时间序列的变点问题。所给出的统计方法可用来推断一个时间序列是否存在变点，存在几个变点以及变点在什么位置。这种统计推断方法可用于气候阶段的划分。     

地震行业地面骨干网与应急卫星通信网互联路由设计方案的探讨

本文介绍了地震行业地面骨干网与应急卫星通信网的运行现状及互联存在的路由问题,讨论了实现两网互联的路由设计目标和策略,根据OSPF协议与BGP协议的特点和适用范围,提出了统一互联的接入方法,以及联合使用OSPF和BGP协议解决两网互联路由问题的具体方案,经网络仿真平台测试证明,该方案切实可行,效果良好。     

Late Paleozoic Fluid Systems and Their Ore-forming Effects in the Yuebei Basin, Northern Guangdong, China

Based on detailed and systematic researches of the geology of ore deposits, fluid inclusions and isotope geochemistry etc., and regarding the Late Paleozoic fluid system of the Yuebei Basin as an integrated object in this paper, we have revealed the temporo-spatial evolution law of the basin＇s fluid system and discussed its ore-forming effects by simulating and analyzing the distribution of ore-forming elements, the fluid thermodynamics and dynamics of evolution processes of this basin. The results show that Late Paleozoic ore-forming fluid systems of the Yuebei Basin include four basic types as follows. （1） The sea floor volcanic-exhalation system developed during the rapid basin slip-extension stage in the Mid-Late Devonian, which affected the Dabaoshan region. It thus formed the Dabaoshan-type Cu-Pb-Zn-Fe sea floor volcanic-exhalation sedimentary deposits. （2） The compaction fluid system developed during the stable spreading and thermal subsidence-compression stage of the basin in the Mid-Late Devonian. The range of its effects extended all over the whole basin. It resulted in filling-metasomatic deposits, such as the Hongyan-type pyrite deposits and pyrite sheet within the Fankou-type Cu-Pb-Zn-S deposits. （3） The hot water circulation system of sea floor developed during the stage of basin uplifting and micro-aulacogen from the late Late Carboniferous to Middle Carboniferous. The range of its effects covered the Fankou region. It thus formed MVT deposits, such as the main orebody of the Fankou-type Pb-Zn-S deposits. （4） The gravity fluid system developed during the stage of fold uplifting and the basin closed from Middle Triassic to Jurassic, forming groundwater hydrothermal deposits, e.g. the veinlet Pb-Zn-calcite orebodies of the Fankou-type Pb-Zn- S deposits. Migration and concentration of the ore-forming fluids were constrained by the state of temporo-spatial distribution of its fluid potential. Growth faults not only converged the fluids and drove them to move upwards, but also the fluids often crossed the faults to the edges of the basin at the bottom of these faults and the lithologic interfaces, and even migrated to the basin＇s edges from top to bottom along the faults, which may be one of the basic reasons for the stratabound deposits to cluster mainly along the contemporaneous faults on the inner border of the basin. The superposed mineralization resulting from the multi-stage activity of contemporaneous faults and ore-forming fluid systems in the basin may be one of the key factors for forming superlarge ore deposits.