"碧利斯"(2006)台风低压暴雨数值模拟试验

利用NECP 1°×1°的6h分析资料,采用中尺度数值预报模式WRF对2006年7月16~19日“碧利斯”(2006)台风低压引发的暴雨天气过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明,WRF模式对这次暴雨过程的雨带位置和走向均有较好的模拟,对这次暴雨过程中尺度天气系统的发生、发展及加强均在模拟结果中有所显现。     

The Representativeness of Air Quality Monitoring Sites in the Urban Areas of a Mountainous City

Lanzhou is a typical mountainous city with severe air pollution in northwestern China. This study uses hourly observational data of air pollutants at five air quality monitoring sites in Lanzhou from July to December 2015 to discuss data quality control and the representativeness of the monitoring sites(four urban sites and one suburban site). A fuzzy matrix is applied to study primary air pollutants. The results show that of the six routinely monitored pollutants,the primary pollutant is PM_10 during the study period. Based on lag correlation analysis and one-way analysis of variance, it is concluded that there are redundant observations at the four urban sites for the timely diffusion and transport of air pollutants from the same general area. The coefficient of divergence(COD) method is then used to evaluate the spatial distribution differences, and the primary air pollutant PM_10 shows differences at each site. COD can be used as a positive indicator to describe site representativeness. To evaluate the overall air pollution in the valley, correlation analysis is performed between the PM_10 concentration retrieved from aerosol optical depth satellite data and the concentration from the four urban monitoring sites. Among these, the correlation between the workers' hospital site data and the retrieval data is the highest, passing the 90% confidence level. A new representative evaluation model for air quality monitoring sites, R_s = 0.77 COD + 0.23R_(retrieval), is established by using COD and correlation coefficients between routine observations and satellite retrieval products. From this model, it can be concluded that the biological products institute site in Lanzhou is the most representative site for the evaluation of air pollution out of the four urban air quality monitoring sites from July to December 2015.     

强对流天气雷达回波强度相关性对比分析

为了提高山区复杂地形条件下局地强对流天气监测预警能力,有效减小天气雷达之间对降水目标物回波的测量误差,选取贵阳、毕节、遵义三部多普勒天气雷达同步观测体扫资料,以贵阳多普勒天气雷达站为基准,对比分析了强对流天气的雷达回波强度的变化特征。初步分析结果表明:贵阳与遵义、毕节雷达之间观测的回波强度具有一致性的波动特征,且存在较大的相关性;贵阳雷达观测的回波强度总体低于毕节、遵义雷达观测数据结果;两部雷达之间回波强度差异主要是由云和降水对雷达波的衰减所产生。     

基于陆基GNSS的电离层时间序列预报研究

为讨论不同时间序列模型对电离层垂直总电子含量（VTEC）的预报效果,在平静电离层条件下,采用载波相位平滑伪距法解算单站上空的电离层VTEC值,分别利用自回归积分滑动平均模型（ARIMA）与Holt-Winters指数平滑模型进行逐站建模,通过时长为9 d的样本序列实现3 d预报,并对预报值进行系统评估.结果表明,时间序列模型能够较好地反映预报期内的电离层VTEC变化情况,均方根误差均值不超5 TECU.此外,Holt-Winters乘法模型的预报值偏差最大,加法模型次之,ARIMA模型在11个测站的相对精度都高于Holt-Winters指数平滑模型,且其均方根误差峰值最小,具有最高的预报精度.     

城市天气预报服务产品制作系统

利用FORTRAN和BASIC语言开发在WINDOWS．XX环境下运行的城市天气预报服务产品制作程序，包括报文采集、报文处理与翻译、报文检索与纠错、产品制作、产品输出与分发等内容，实现了大数量和多类型城市天气预报产品的自动制作。在保证准确、高效的专业预报服务中发挥了重要作用。     

三峡库区秭归与巴东交界Ms4.0地震矩张量及应力环境研究

三峡库区湖北秭归与巴东交界地区2013年以来发生5次Ms4.0以上地震.本文基于湖北、重庆等省属13个测震台站宽频带波形数据,采用kiwi软件包和rapidinv12程序反演了这些地震的全矩张量解,结果显示所有地震双力偶解均为走滑兼逆断性质,两个节面走向、倾角、滑动角与P、T轴走向和倾俯角的一致性均较好,主压应力P轴N...     

水库对河流营养盐滞留效应研究进展

综述了国内外水库对河流营养盐滞留效应的主要进展,尽管在大型水库是否显著改变原有河流输送营养盐的问题上存在诸多争议,反映在滞留效率的估算上,存在前后矛盾的结果,但大量的文献仍支持筑坝显著改变了河流原有输送营养盐的特性,并对下游、河口产生深远的影响.本文将"滞留"的主要过程分为泥沙过滤作用和生物过滤作用,并列举了若干经典的估算滞留效率的方法和部分水库对营养盐的滞留效率.     

RESIDUAL POST-IR IRSL SIGNALS OF POTASSIUM FELDSPAR FROM MODERN SAG POND DEPOSITS OF CENTRAL ALTYN TAGH FAULT: IMPLICATION FOR DATING YOUNG PALEOSEISMIC EVENTS

The Altyn Tagh Fault(ATF)is one of the most prominent active strike-slip faults in the India-Eurasia collision. Fresh features of surface ruptures, which are attributed to seismic events taking place in the last millennium, are identified at several sites along the Che'erchen River to Qingshui River section on the central part of ATF. Accurate chronology of these earthquake events would help understand the spatial-temporal relationship of the recent earthquakes. However, great difficulties are encountered. The central ATF is located in the arid area, and the vegetation cover is so limited that rare organic materials appropriate for radiocarbon dating can be found in the sediments. Luminescence dating technique may serve as an alternative to directly determine the burial ages of the earthquake related sediments. The optically stimulated luminescence(OSL)signal of quartz, which has been widely employed for luminescence dating, displays unwanted charateristics for accurate dating. Firstly, the quartz OSL signal is not sensitive to irradiation, which leads to low signal-to-noise ratio or even no measurable quartz OSL signal. Secondly, the targeted samples of the last millennium are very young, and the radiation dose received during the burial is expected to be less than 3~4Gy, which futher deteriorates the signal-to-noise ratio of the quartz OSL signal. Therefore, quartz OSL signal is not appropriate for dating the sediments relevant to the recent earthquakes on ATF.
The infrared stimulated luminescence(IRSL)signal of potassium feldspar is an alternative, and it is in usual an order of maginitude more sensitive to raidation than the quartz OSL signal. The enhanced signal-to-noise ratio makes it applicable to young samples. The post-IR IRSL signal has been successfully applied to date the sediments beyond the Holocene, however, the relatively slow bleaching of the post-IR IRSL signal poses challenges on applying it to young sediments, especially for the sediments deposited during the last millennium. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of using post-IR IRSL signal from potassium feldspar to date the earthquake events of the last millennium by employing modern sag pond deposits with different sorting and expected equivalent dose(D_e)of 0Gy. Choosing an appropriate measurement procedure and identifying the well bleached pottassium feldspar grains are essential for post-IR IRSL dating of young sediments. The non-fading characteristic of the post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ signal measured at 170℃ following a prior IR stimulation at 110℃ was verified by employing the D_e plateau test with respect to the signal integration interval and IR stimulation temperature together. Reducing the amount of potassium feldspar grains mounted on an aliquot would help reveal the among grains variation of bleaching level of post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ signal before depostion and identify the most sufficiently bleached grains. Therefore, the post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ D_e values of 2mm aliquots were measured for three samples with different sedimentary textures. The median of D_e distribution of well sorted and stratified sag pond deposits is consistent with the minimum D_e value inferred from the minimum age model(MAM-3) and finite mixture model(FMM), while for the poorly sorted deposits, the median is significantly overestimated compared with the minimum D_e values from the MAM-3 and the FMM. The minimum D_e values of 0.6~0.8Gy of all three samples are consistent with the unbleachable residual dose previously reported for post-IR IRSL signals measured at similar temperature for well bleached samples. It implies that by combined use of small aliquot and statistical age models, the well-bleached potassium feldspar grains could be identified. Such an intrinsic unbleachable component needs to be properly corrected when earthquake events of last millennium are to be dated in this area. Otherwise, the post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ age would be overestimated by 200~300a.
The post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ procedure investigated in this study is not only applicable for dating the paleoearthquake events along the Altyn Tagh Fault, but also with great potential to be applied to other tectonically active area. With consideration of the potential variability in post-IR IRSL signal characteristics of potassium feldspar grains from different origins, the signal stability needs to be routinely inspected. The modern analog sample would also be informative for justifying the measurement procedure and analytical method employed.     

九江-瑞昌5.7级地震余震的S波分裂研究

利用在九江-瑞昌MS5.7地震震中附近架设的丁家山台(DJS)、狮子洞台(SZD)和武蛟台(WUJ)的地震波形资料,采用S波分裂系统分析方法,对余震进行了S波分裂分析。结果表明,震中距较小、台站附近断层分布复杂的丁家山台(DJS)的慢波时间延迟相对较大,快波偏振方向不太集中。台站附近断裂分布单一的武蛟台(WUJ)快波偏振优势方向与断裂走向角度相差约35°,与区域主压应力方向也不一致。台站附近无断层通过的狮子洞台(SZD)快波偏振优势方向接近区域主压应力方向。慢波时间延迟大小与震源深度没有明显的规律性关系。