Potential for small scale added value of RCM’s downscaled climate change signal

In recent decades, the need of future climate information at local scales have pushed the climate modelling community to perform increasingly higher resolution simulations and to develop alternative approaches to obtain fine-scale climatic information. In this article, various nested regional climate model (RCM) simulations have been used to try to identify regions across North America where high-resolution downscaling generates fine-scale details in the climate projection derived using the “delta method”. Two necessary conditions were identified for an RCM to produce added value (AV) over lower resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation models in the fine-scale component of the climate change (CC) signal. First, the RCM-derived CC signal must contain some non-negligible fine-scale information—independently of the RCM ability to produce AV in the present climate. Second, the uncertainty related with the estimation of this fine-scale information should be relatively small compared with the information itself in order to suggest that RCMs are able to simulate robust fine-scale features in the CC signal. Clearly, considering necessary (but not sufficient) conditions means that we are studying the “potential” of RCMs to add value instead of the AV, which preempts and avoids any discussion of the actual skill and hence the need for hindcast comparisons. The analysis concentrates on the CC signal obtained from the seasonal-averaged temperature and precipitation fields and shows that the fine-scale variability of the CC signal is generally small compared to its large-scale component, suggesting that little AV can be expected for the time-averaged fields. For the temperature variable, the largest potential for fine-scale added value appears in coastal regions mainly related with differential warming in land and oceanic surfaces. Fine-scale features can account for nearly 60 % of the total CC signal in some coastal regions although for most regions the fine scale contributions to the total CC signal are of around ～5 %. For the precipitation variable, fine scales contribute to a change of generally less than 15 % of the seasonal-averaged precipitation in present climate with a continental North American average of ～5 % in both summer and winter seasons. In the case of precipitation, uncertainty due to sampling issues may further dilute the information present in the downscaled fine scales. These results suggest that users of RCM simulations for climate change studies in a delta method framework have little high-resolution information to gain from RCMs at least if they limit themselves to the study of first-order statistical moments. Other possible benefits arising from the use of RCMs—such as in the large scale of the downscaled fields– were not explored in this research.     

Climate change and adaptation: an integrated framework linking social and physical aspects in poorly-gauged regions

Various frameworks related to climate change and adaptations that have been developed to date have notable benefits as well as significant limitations. It is not always practical to implement advanced climate change frameworks in situations with limited data availability. Social aspects, such as people’s experience and perception, are often under-prioritized. Therefore, this study introduces an integrated framework linking social and physical aspects of climate change to assess its impacts on water resources and to evaluate differing adaptation options in poorly gauged basins. A case study of the Kali Gandaki River Basin (KGRB) in western Nepal is presented to demonstrate the applicability of this framework. Results of the study show that people of the mountainous Mustang district in the KGRB have perceived climate change or climate variability, its impacts on water resources, as well as other water-related issues and potential adaptations or responses. Furthermore, evaluation of people’s perception using available physical data confirms the increase in temperature and average annual discharge in the Kali Gandaki River as well as poor water use, as a major problem at all levels in the basin. Despite increasing water availability, a concurrent increase in water use is difficult due to topographic constraints on irrigation development. However, the impacts of climate change are particularly severe in Mustang, owing to the fact that a large proportion of the population depends on a climate-sensitive livelihood like agriculture. Therefore, various adaptation options are identified in the agricultural sector, and one relevant option is further evaluated. The framework developed in this study has the potential to be further applied to other poorly gauged basins.     

Photometric and polarimetric studies of three W UMa-type binaries: FZ Ori,V407 Peg and LP UMa

We present analyses of new optical photometric observations of three W UMa-type contact binaries FZ Ori, V407 Peg and LP UMa. Results from the first polarimetric observations of the FZ Ori and V407 Peg are also presented. The periods of FZ Ori, V407 Peg and LP UMa are derived to be 0.399986, 0.636884 and 0.309898 d, respectively. The O?C analyses indicate that the orbital periods of FZ Ori and LP UMa have increased with the rate of 2.28×10^?8 and 1.25×10^?6 d?yr^?1, respectively and which is explained by transfer of mass between the components. In addition to the secularly increasing rate of orbital period, it was found that the period of FZ Ori has varied in sinusoidal way with oscillation period of ～30.1 yr. The period of oscillations are most likely to be explained by the light-time effect due to the presence of a tertiary companion. Small asymmetries have been seen around the primary and secondary maxima of light curves of all three systems, which is probably due to the presence of cool/hot spots on the components. The light curves of all three systems are analysed by using Wilson-Devinney code (WD) and the fundamental parameters of these systems have been derived. The present analyses show that FZ Ori is a W-subtype, and V407 Peg and LP UMa are A-subtype of the W UMa-type contact binary systems. The polarimetric observations in B, V, R and I bands, yield average values of polarization to be 0.26±0.03, 0.22±0.02, 0.22±0.03 and 0.22±0.05 per cent for FZ Ori and 0.21±0.02, 0.29±0.03, 0.31±0.01 and 0.31±0.04 per cent for V407 Peg, respectively.     

Mars interplanetary trajectory design via Lagrangian points

With the increase in complexities of interplanetary missions, the main focus has shifted to reducing the total delta-V for the entire mission and hence increasing the payload capacity of the spacecraft. This paper develops a trajectory to Mars using the Lagrangian points of the Sun-Earth system and the Sun-Mars system. The whole trajectory can be broadly divided into three stages: (1) Trajectory from a near-Earth circular parking orbit to a halo orbit around Sun-Earth Lagrangian point L₂. (2) Trajectory from Sun-Earth L₂ halo orbit to Sun-Mars L₁ halo orbit. (3) Sun-Mars L₁ halo orbit to a circular orbit around Mars. The stable and unstable manifolds of the halo orbits are used for halo orbit insertion. The intermediate transfer arcs are designed using two-body Lambert’s problem. The total delta-V for the whole trajectory is computed and found to be lesser than that for the conventional trajectories. For a 480 km Earth parking orbit, the total delta-V is found to be 4.6203 km/s. Another advantage in the present approach is that delta-V does not depend upon the synodic period of Earth with respect to Mars.     

A search for the 53-MHz OH line near G48.4−1.4 using the National MST Radar Facility

We present the results of a search for the ground-state hyperfine transition of the OH radical near 53 MHz using the National Mesosphere–Stratosphere–Troposphere (MST) Radar Facility at Gadanki, India. The observed position was G48.4−1.4 near the Galactic plane. The OH line is not detected. We place a 3σ upper limit for the line flux density at 39 Jy from our observations. We also did not detect recombination lines (RLs) of carbon, which were within the frequency range of our observations. The 3σ upper limit of 20 Jy obtained for the flux density of carbon RLs, along with observations at 34.5 and 327 MHz, are used to constrain the physical properties of the line-forming region. Our upper limit is consistent with the line emission expected from a partially ionized region with electron temperature, density and path lengths in the range 20–300 K, 0.03–0.3 cm⁻³ and 0.1–170 pc, respectively.     

Anisotropic Bianchi Type-II Cosmological Models in Self-Creation Cosmology

Totally anisotropic Bianchi type-II cosmological solutions are presented in Barber's second self-creation theory of gravitation both in vacuum and in the presence of stiff-matter. The corresponding cosmological models have no finite singularity. The stiff-matter model gives essentially an empty universe for large time. Some physical and kinematical properties of the models are discussed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Effect of oblateness on triangular solutions at critical mass

At critical mass the triangular equilibria in the planar restricted three-body problem, when the more massive primary is an oblate spheroid with its equatorial plane coincident with the plane of motion, are in general unstable due to the presence of secular terms in the solutions of linearized equations of motion in the vicinity of these points. Existence of retrograde elliptic periodic orbits is established through suitable velocity components. The eccentricity of these orbits increases with the oblateness.