Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.     

Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.     

Basait generation at the Apollo 12 site,Part 2: Source heterogeneity,multiple melts,and crustal contamination

Abstract— The petrogenesis of Apollo 12 mare basalts has been examined with emphasis on trace-element ratios and abundances. Vitrophyric basalts were used as parental compositions for the modelling, and proportions of fractionating phases were determined using the MAGFOX program of Longhi (1991). Crystal fractionation processes within crustal and sub-crustal magma chambers are evaluated as a function of pressure. Knowledge of the fractionating phases allows trace-element variations to be considered as either source related or as a product of post-magma-generation processes. For the ilmenite and olivine basalts, trace-element variations are inherited from the source, but the pigeonite basalt data have been interpreted with open-system evolution processes through crustal assimilation. Three groups of basalts have been examined: (1) Pigeonite basalts — produced by the assimilation of lunar crustal material by a parental melt (up to 3% assimilation and 10% crystal fractionation, with an “r” value of 0.3). (2) Ilmenite basalts — produced by variable degrees of partial melting (4–8%) of a source of olivine, pigeonite, augite, and plagioclase, brought together by overturn of the Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) cumulate pile. After generation, which did not exhaust any of the minerals in the source, these melts experienced closed-system crystal fractionation/accumulation. (3) Olivine basalts — produced by variable degrees of partial melting (5–10%) of a source of olivine, pigeonite, and augite. After generation, again without exhausting any of the minerals in the source, these melts evolved through crystal accumulation. The evolved liquid counterparts of these cumulates have not been sampled. The source compositions for the ilmenite and olivine basalts were calculated by assuming that the vitrophyric compositions were primary and the magmas were produced by non-modal batch melting. Although the magnitude is unclear, evaluation of these source regions indicates that both be composed of early- and late-stage Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) cumulates, requiring an overturn of the cumulate pile.     

A review of radio observations of comets

The current status of cometary radio observations is reviewed. Radio continuum observations made at different wavelengths can be used to model the properties of cometary particles. Continuum observations have been successful for two comets but the interpretation of the data is subject to some disagreement. Radar observations are important for determining the size, angular momentum, direction of motion, and surface properties of the cometary nucleus. One comet, p/Encke, has been successfully observed by radar. The reasons why radio observations can fail are discussed. These include the undue influence of the highly volatile “comet frost” which often coats new comets, small errors in radio ephemerides, the inopportune scheduling of observing periods at less than optimum cometary heliocentric distances and velocities, and poor spectroscopic properties of the molecular transitions chosen for observations. In order to clarify the sometimes confusing observations which have been reported, cometary radio spectroscopy is reviewed in chronological order, comet by comet, starting from the earliest reported searches for polyatomic molecules in the early 1970s through progress in understanding cometary OH and into current searches for glycine, the simplest amino acid. The results of current OH ultraviolet pumping models are briefly discussed and several formalisms for computing molecular production rates arepresented. Radio observational programs which can aid in discriminating between current theories of terrestrial biological evolution are introduced. Both specific and general conclusions are drawn from the available material on cometary radio spectroscopy.     

A Maunder Minimum Scenario Based on Cross-Hemispheric Coupling and Intermittency

A novel scenario for Maunder minimum-like grand minima epochs of reduced solar activity is proposed, based on diffusive coupling between both solar hemispheres, each susceptible to stochastically-driven intermittent behavior. After introducing cross-hemispheric coupling into a well-validated reduced model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock–Leighton mechanism for poloidal field regeneration, simulations are presented demonstrating that even weak coupling can lead to a high degree of synchronicity between the two hemispheres. This is in qualitative agreement with the similar onset and recovery times of sunspot activity at and around the Maunder minimum. Moreover, even weak coupling manages to greatly reduce the frequency and duration of quiescent episodes, again in qualitative agreement with the relative paucity of grand minima in the sunspot and radioisotope records.     

The final phases of the Viking mission to Mars

Of the four spacecraft that the Viking Project put into operation at Mars in the summer of 1976, one continues to acquire data periodically. The missions of the two orbiters were terminated by the depletion of their attitude-control gas: Orbiter 2 in July 1978 and Orbiter 1 in August 1980. Lander 2 was shut down in April 1980 because of degradation of its batteries. Lander 1 is programmed to continue acquiring a modest number of imaging, meteorology, and ranging data periodically until December 1994. During its final year Orbiter 1 continued to produce excellent data from its full complement of instruments—two cameras, two infrared instruments (thermal mapper and water vapor detector), and the radio subsystem. The major emphasis was on photography, with 10,000 images being acquired. These included two very large swaths of high-resolution contiguous coverage of the Martian surface and the completion of the moderate-resolution mapping of nearly the entire surface, as well as miscellaneous other observations. The majority of these images has not been processed and examined, but the others have revealed many previously unobserved features and have greatly enhanced the base for a geological understanding of the planet. The history of Viking mission operations is brought up to date.     

Structure Function Analysis of Two-Scale Scalar Ramps. Part II: Ramp Characteristics and Surface Renewal Flux Estimation

Ramp features in the turbulent scalar field are associated with turbulent coherent structures, which dominate energy and mass fluxes in the atmospheric surface layer. Although finer scale ramp-like shapes embedded within larger scale ramp-like shapes can readily be perceived in turbulent scalar traces, their presence has largely been overlooked in the literature. We demonstrate the signature of more than one ramp scale in structure functions of the turbulent scalar field measured from above bare ground and two types of short plant canopies, using structure-function time lags ranging in scale from isotropic to larger than the characteristic coherent structures. Spectral analysis of structure functions was used to characterize different scales of turbulent structures. By expanding structure function analysis to include two ramp scales, we characterized the intermittency, duration, and surface renewal flux contribution of the smallest (i.e., Scale One) and the dominant (i.e., Scale Two) coherent structure scales. The frequencies of the coherent structure scales increase with mean wind shear, implying that both Scale One and Scale Two are shear-driven. The embedded Scale One turbulent structure scale is ineffectual in the surface-layer energy and mass transport process. The new method reported here for obtaining surface renewal-based scalar exchange works well over bare ground and short canopies under unstable conditions, effectively eliminating the α calibration for these conditions and forming the foundation for analysis over taller and more complex surfaces.     

The day-sector polar F-layer during a magnetospheric substorm

Ionogram and all-sky camera data have been recorded on the Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories' Flying Ionospheric Laboratory in the day sector of the auroral oval under conditions of darkness. The airborne measurements show that the polar F-layer irregularity zone, which is characterized on ionograms by a generally non-retarded and spread F type echo, exhibits meridional motions similar to the day-sector auroras. The polar F-layer irregularity zone and the day-sector auroras move equatorward and then move poleward in harmony with the development and decay of a magnetospheric substorm. We suggest that the polar cusp also moves in essentially the same fashion.     

钢管混凝土柱带钢板耗能键组合剪力墙抗震研究

提出了连排钢管混凝土柱带钢板耗能键组合剪力墙,它由钢管混凝土连排柱、柱间钢板耗能键、钢板耗能键外包混凝土条带三种单元组合而成。进行了4个不同设计参数试件的低周反复荷载试验研究。分析了各试件的承载力、刚度及其退化过程、滞回特性、延性和破坏特征,探讨了分灾耗能机制。研究表明:连排钢管混凝土柱带钢板耗能键组合剪力墙,承载力较大,后期刚度较稳定;混凝土条带在开裂与闭合过程中消耗地震能量,钢板耗能键通过弯剪变形消耗地震能量,钢管与混凝土条带共同工作协同耗能,具有良好的抗震耗能机制;这种新型组合剪力墙具有较强综合抗震耗能能力。