Stochastic evaluation of simple pairing approaches to reconstruct incomplete rainfall time series

Two-station pairing approaches are routinely used to infill missing information in incomplete rainfall databases. We evaluated the performance of three simple methodologies to reconstruct incomplete time series in presence of variable nonlinear correlation between data pairs. Nonlinearity stems from the statistics describing the marginal peak-over-threshold (POT) values of rainfall events. A Monte Carlo analysis was developed to quantitatively assess expected errors from the use of chronological pairing (CP) with linear and nonlinear regression and frequency pairing (FP). CP is based on a priori selection of regression functions, while FP is based on matching the probability of non-exceedance of an event from one time series with the probability of non-exceedance of a similar event from another time series. We adopted a generalized Pareto (GP) model to describe POT events, and a t-copula algorithm to generate reference nonlinearly correlated pairs of random temporal distributions distributed according with the GP model. The results suggest that the optimal methodology strongly depends on GP statistics. In general, CP seems to provide the lowest errors when GP statistics were similar and correlation became linear; we found that a power-2 function performs well for the selected statistics when the number of missing points is limited. FP outperforms the other methods when POT statistics are different and variables are markedly nonlinearly correlated. Ensemble-based results seem to be supported by the analysis of observed precipitation at two real-world gauge stations.     

Studying local sources in the radio range based on the partial solar eclipse of January 4, 2011, at the Mountain Astronomical Station, Central Astronomical Observatory, Russian Academy of Sciences

Data are presented on a partial solar eclipse, which occurred on January 4, 2011, and was observed with RT-3 (?? = 4.9 cm) and RT-2 (?? = 3.2 cm) radio telescopes at the Mountain Astronomical Station, Central Astronomical Observatory, Russian Academy of Sciences (MAS CAO RAS). The radioemission flux in two channels was registered using digital methods with a time resolution of 0.5 s. Comparisons were performed with observations in the optical, UV, and X-ray ranges. The following local sources of increased radioemission on the solar disk have been identified: sunspot groups 1 (NOAA 1142) and 126 (NOAA 1141), unipolar sunspot 127 (NOAA 1140), facula areas, and polar and midlatitude coronal holes. It has been indicated that the brightness of a unipolar sunspot (for ?? = 4.9 cm, I _rel = 29.5; for ?? = 3.2 cm, I _rel = 10.1) and two sunspot groups (for ?? = 4.9 cm, I _rel = 10.1 and 14.2; for ?? = 3.2 cm, I _rel = 5.1 and 6.2) is maximal. The radioemission flux of all found coronal holes is decreased, and the decrease is more contrasting in the 4.9-cm range as compared to such a decrease in the 3.2-cm range. Radio maps of the Sun and changes in the radioemission flux of undisturbed solar regions from the center to the limb for ?? = 4.9 and 3.2 cm have been constructed based on the eclipse data.     

On Geoseismic Noise and Helioseismic Oscillations

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—In their paper published in Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, G.A. Sobolev et al. (2020) discussed the results of their study. Firstly,...     

Observations of vertical ground accelerations exceeding gravity during the 1997 Umbria-Marche (central Italy) earthquakes

We found extensive evidence that the vertical ground accelerations produced during the largest shock (M = 6.0) of the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence exceeded 1g in two areas close to the heavily-damaged villages of Annifo and Colle Croce. This evidence comes from the striking observation of thousands of freshly fractured and broken rocks and stones in these areas. Some of the broken stones lie isolated on soft detritic soil while others had been previously piled up, probably a long time agoto clear the fields for farming. The freshness of the cuts and fractures and the consistency of the observations for thousands of rocks and stones in these areas indicate that these rocks were thrown upwards during the earthquake, with breakage occurring at the time of impact. Ground motion calculations consistent with the static deformation inferred from GPS and interferometry data, show that the broken stones and rocks are found in the zone where the strongest shaking took place during the earthquake and that most of the shaking there was vertical.     

Ambient Changes in Tracer Concentrations from a Multilevel Monitoring System in Basalt

Starting in 2008, a 4‐year tracer study was conducted to evaluate ambient changes in groundwater concentrations of a 1,3,6‐naphthalene trisulfonate tracer that was added to drill water. Samples were collected under open borehole conditions and after installing a multilevel groundwater monitoring system completed with 11 discrete monitoring zones within dense and fractured basalt and sediment layers in the eastern Snake River aquifer. The study was done in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy to test whether ambient fracture flow conditions were sufficient to remove the effects of injected drill water prior to sample collection. Results from thief samples indicated that the tracer was present in minor concentrations 28 days after coring, but was not present 6 months after coring or 7 days after reaming the borehole. Results from sampling the multilevel monitoring system indicated that small concentrations of the tracer remained in 5 of 10 zones during some period after installation. All concentrations were several orders of magnitude lower than the initial concentrations in the drill water. The ports that had remnant concentrations of the tracer were either located near sediment layers or were located in dense basalt, which suggests limited groundwater flow near these ports. The ports completed in well‐fractured and vesicular basalt had no detectable concentrations.     

Airborne radar and in-situ observations of a shallow stratus with drizzle

Observations were made of a shallow stratus of upslope origin using an aircraft equipped with insitu probes and with a vertically-pointing radar of 3-mm wavelength. A cloud layer of 300 m thickness was found below the inversion; an additional layer of 100 m thickness was located within the inversion. The coldest temperature within the cloud was -2°C and the cloud contained no ice particles. Drizzle drops up to 180 Am were present in both cloud layers.The observations reveal precipitation and air motion structures of approximately 1 km horizontal dimensions. The origin of this organization appears to be weak convection. In addition, mixing played an important role in forming the cloud droplet and drizzle drop size distributions.     

Theoretical meteorology and the operational meteorologist

Abstract

Values of incoming solar and long‐wave radiation measured at the vessel Quadra during the three phases of GATE are used to assess the daily performance of three models, one for solar and two for long‐wave radiation. The solar radiation model, which uses data on precipitable water and cloud amount at three levels in the atmosphere performed satisfactorily during the first phase but gave poor results in the other two phases when cumulonimbus became more dominant. Both the flux‐emissivity approach using measured and interpolated Upper air data and Paltridge's empirical procedure produced estimates of long‐wave radiation which compared very closely with the measurements.     

Petrogenesis of voluminous mid-Tertiary ignimbrites of the Sierra Madre Occidental,Chihuahua, Mexico

The mid-Tertiary ignimbrites of the Sierra Madre Occidental of western Mexico constitute the largest continuous rhyolitic province in the world. The rhyolites appear to represent part of a continental magmatic arc that was emplaced when an eastward-dipping subduction zone was located beneath western Mexico.In the Batopilas region of the northern Sierra Madre Occidental the mid-Tertiary Upper Volcanic sequence is composed predominantly of rhyolitic ignimbrites, but volumetrically minor lava flows as mafic as basaltic andesite are also present. The basaltic andesite to rhyolite series is calc-alkalic and contains 1% K₂O at 60% SiO₂. Trace element abundances of a typical ignimbrite with 73% SiO₂ are Sr 225 ppm, Rb 130 ppm, Y 32 ppm, Th 12 ppm, Zr 200 ppm, and Nb 15 ppm. The entire series plots as coherent and continuous trends on variation diagrams involving major and trace elements, and the trends are distinct from those of geographicallyassociated rocks of other suites. We interpret these and other geochemical variations to indicate that the rocks are comagmatic. Mineral chemistry, Sr isotopic data, and REE modelling support this interpretation.Least squares calculations show that the major element variations are consistent with formation of the basaltic andesite to rhyolite series by crystal fractionation of observed phenocryst phases in approximate modal proportions. In addition, calculations modelling the behavior of Sr with the incompatible trace element Th favor a fractional crystallization origin over a crustal anatexis origin for the rock series. The fractionating minerals included plagioclase (> 50%), and lesser amounts of Fe-Ti oxides, pyroxenes, and/or hornblende. The voluminous ignimbrites represent no more than 20% of the original mass of a mantle-derived mafic parental magma.     

A tertiary lamprophyre dike with high pressure xenoliths and megacrysts from Wiedemanns Fjord,East Greenland

Lamprophyric dikes, mainly of camptonite/monchiquite affinities occur in the Wiedemanns Fjord area. One example contains a complex assemblage of olivine-orthopyroxene-chrome spinel nodules, megacrysts of kaersutite, diopside, strongly reverse-zoned green salite and various spinel phases. Microprobe analyses are presented for all these phases and for the lilac-coloured titansalites and strongly-coloured kaersutites of the groundmass. It is concluded that these minerals record evolution under various P, T and oxidation regimes during the formation of a lamprophyric parent magma. The nodules provide evidence for deep fractures in this area supposedly associated with early rifting in the North Atlantic.