Modelling dispersion in complex open channel flows: Fuzzy calibration (2)

Part 1 of this study assessed the effectiveness of dispersion models based around random particle tracking (RPT) applied an overbank flow in the Flood Channel Facility at HR Wallingford. Several of the RPT models that were used predicted the mixing behaviour of the tracer in the complex channel flow to within an acceptable accuracy. If there is no uniqueness in the model structure which can be used to represent the true system to within the limitations of the available observations, then this implies an inherent degree of ambiguity in our knowledge of the physically based model structure. This suggests that we should be less forthright in the optimisation of each individual model structure, and perhaps investigate more of the parameter combinations for each model which yield feasible simulations of the system. An alternative fuzzy calibration technique is introduced which avoids the optimisation process and takes account of uncertainties in the model structure, parameter sets and observed data in prediction.     

Spatial and temporal structure of the Denmark Strait Overflow revealed by acoustic observations

In spite of the fundamental role the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays for global climate stability, no direct current measurement of the Denmark Strait Overflow, which is the densest part of the AMOC, has been available until recently that resolve the cross-stream structure at the sill for long periods. Since 1999, an array of bottom-mounted acoustic instruments measuring current velocity and bottom-to-surface acoustic travel times was deployed at the sill. Here, the optimization of the array configuration based on a numerical overflow model is discussed. The simulation proves that more than 80% of the dense water transport variability is captured by two to three acoustic current profilers (ADCPs). The results are compared with time series from ADCPs and Inverted Echo Sounders deployed from 1999 to 2003, confirming that the dense overflow plume can be reliably measured by bottom-mounted instruments and that the overflow is largely geostrophically balanced at the sill.     

Solar–terrestrial effects possibly stronger in biblical times

Paleomagnetic studies have shown that, moving backwards in time, the geomagnetic dipole moment increased to a peak nearly 50% greater than at present ca. 2500 years ago. Attempts to model how changes in dipole moment affect solar–terrestrial relations have hitherto invoked a scaling relation for the size of the magnetosphere based on finding where the magnetic pressure of the dipole field balances the ram pressure of the solar wind. This approach predicts that, following a solar storm, the strength of the terrestrial response represented by the electrical potential across the auroral zones in the ionosphere should vary as the 1/3 power of dipole moment. Such a weak dependence suggests that a 50% increase in dipole moment would minimally effect (14%) terrestrial manifestations of solar storms. Recent work, however, based on a feedback mechanism involving electrical currents coupling the magnetosphere and ionosphere has identified a stronger 4/3, power scaling relation applicable to storm conditions. Here we use a global MHD simulation to calculate for a 50% increased dipole moment the correspondingly increased auroral-zone potential and its extension to low latitudes.     

Pre‐drill Groundwater Geochemistry in the Karoo Basin,South Africa

Enhanced production of unconventional hydrocarbons in the United States has driven interest in natural gas development globally, but simultaneously raised concerns regarding water quantity and quality impacts associated with hydrocarbon extraction. We conducted a pre‐development assessment of groundwater geochemistry in the critically water‐restricted Karoo Basin, South Africa. Twenty‐two springs and groundwater samples were analyzed for major dissolved ions, trace elements, water stable isotopes, strontium and boron isotopes, hydrocarbons and helium composition. The data revealed three end‐members: a deep, saline groundwater with a sodium‐chloride composition, an old, deep freshwater with a sodium‐bicarbonate‐chloride composition and a shallow, calcium‐bicarbonate freshwater. In a few cases, we identified direct mixing of the deep saline water and shallow groundwater. Stable water isotopes indicate that the shallow groundwater was controlled by evaporation in arid conditions, while the saline waters were diluted by apparently fossil meteoric water originated under wetter climatic conditions. These geochemical and isotopic data, in combination with elevated helium levels, suggest that exogenous fluids are the source of the saline groundwater and originated from remnant seawater prior to dilution by old meteoric water combined with further modification by water‐rock interactions. Samples with elevated methane concentrations (>14 ccSTP/kg) were strongly associated with the sodium‐chloride water located near dolerite intrusions, which likely provide a preferential pathway for vertical migration of deeply sourced hydrocarbon‐rich saline waters to the surface. This pre‐drill evaluation indicates that the natural migration of methane‐ and salt‐rich waters provides a source of geogenic contamination to shallow aquifers prior to shale gas development in the Karoo Basin.     

Assessment of village-wise groundwater draft for irrigation: a field-based study in hard-rock aquifers of central India

Extracted groundwater, 90% of which is used for irrigated agriculture, is central to the socio-economic development of India. A lack of regulation or implementation of regulations, alongside unrecorded extraction, often leads to over exploitation of large-scale common-pool resources like groundwater. Inevitably, management of groundwater extraction (draft) for irrigation is critical for sustainability of aquifers and the society at large. However, existing assessments of groundwater draft, which are mostly available at large spatial scales, are inadequate for managing groundwater resources that are primarily exploited by stakeholders at much finer scales. This study presents an estimate, projection and analysis of fine-scale groundwater draft in the Seonath-Kharun interfluve of central India. Using field surveys of instantaneous discharge from irrigation wells and boreholes, annual groundwater draft for irrigation in this area is estimated to be 212 × 10⁶ m³, most of which (89%) is withdrawn during non-monsoon season. However, the density of wells/boreholes, and consequent extraction of groundwater, is controlled by the existing hydrogeological conditions. Based on trends in the number of abstraction structures (1982–2011), groundwater draft for the year 2020 is projected to be approximately 307 × 10⁶ m³; hence, groundwater draft for irrigation in the study area is predicted to increase by ～44% within a span of 8 years. Central to the work presented here is the approach for estimation and prediction of groundwater draft at finer scales, which can be extended to critical groundwater zones of the country.     

Die Verwendung von orthogonalen Polynomen in der Meteorologie

Zusammenfassung Das Höhenfeld der 850 mb-Fläche über Mitteleuropa und dem Nordatlantik wird in einem Gitternetz aus 45 Punkten durch Orthogonalpolynome (Tschebytscheff-Polynome) dargestellt. Es wird ein Überblick darüber gegeben, welche Verwendungsmöglichkeiten dieser Darstellungsform künftighin untersucht werden sollen; es sind dies vor allem die objektive Klassifikation der Großwetterlagen, statistische Prognosen (besonders Mittelfristprognosen) und die Anwendung bei der numerischen Wettervorhersage. Als Beispiel für die Darstellung wird der Übergang von einer zonalen Wetterlage über eine meridionale wieder zu einer zonalen Lage an den Änderungen der Koeffizienten der Polynomkombinationen gezeigt.

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Summary The field of heights of the 850 mb-surface above Central Europe and the North Atlantic is represented in a grid of 45 points by means of orthogonal polynomials (Tchebycheff-polynomials). A general discussion is given which of the possible applications of this kind of representation shall further be investigated, i. e. first of all the objective classification of large scale weather situations (Großwetterlagen), statistical forecasts (especially medium range forecasts), and the application in numerical weather prediction. As an example of this representation, the variations of polynomial coefficients are given for the transition of a pressure field from zonal to meridional and back to zonal.

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Résumé Les hauteurs de la surface isobarique de 850 mb au dessus de l'Europe Centrale et de l'Océan Atlantique du Nord sont représentées dans un carrelage de 45 points par des polynoms orthogonaux (polynoms de Tchebycheff). Un aperçu est donné quel emploi possible de cette manière de représentation sera à examiner dans l'avenir; ce sont avant tout la classification objective des situations météorologiques générales (Großwetterlagen), les prévisions statistiques (particulièrement les prévisions à moyenne échéance) et l'application à la prévision numérique. Comme exemple de cette représentation la transition d'une situation météorologique zonale à une situation méridionale et vice versa à une situation zonale est montrée au moyen des variations des coefficients des combinaisons des polynoms.

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Mit 4 Textabbildungen

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Herrn Prof. Dr.R. Inzinger, dem Vorstand des Mathematischen Labors der Technischen Hochschule Wien, sei an dieser Stelle gedankt, daß er für die rechnerischen Vorarbeiten die Maschinen seines Instituts und einen seiner Assistenten für deren Programmierung zur Verfügung stellte.     

Organic contaminants and characteristics of sediments from Oso Bay,south Texas,USA

The Oso Bay, Texas, sediments from nine sites were analyzed by GC-MS for organics to measure contamination in the bay. In most of the sites sediments contained tetrachloroethene (87–1433 g/kg), bis (2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (40–193 g/kg), and aliphatic hydrocarbons, C₈-C₁₃ (720–2491 g/kg). Sources of these contaminants include a landfill, military facilities, and municipal and industrial discharges. Size analysis of the sediments indicates they contain a high percentage of muddy sand (50–75 percent), which suggests that Oso Bay consists of common bay margin sediments.     

Mineral magnetic signatures in a long core from Lake Qarun, Middle Egypt

The analysis and interpretation of changes in mineral magnetic signatures from a long (ca. 8.2 m) sedimentary sequence recovered from Lake Qarun, Middle Egypt in 2003 spanning a timescale of approximately the last 2,000 years is reported. A suite of mass specific susceptibility and magnetic remanence measurements were made at irregular intervals downcore on 39 samples. These samples were selected on the basis of trends and abrupt changes in whole-core magnetic susceptibility measured using a Bartington^® MS2E sensor and were analysed for low and high temperature loss on ignition and their particle size distribution. Trends in all mineral magnetic concentration parameters are remarkably similar and were initially used to divide the core into three magnetically distinct zones. The upper and lower sections of the core (0–119 cm and 445–822 cm depth) are characterised by low values for all magnetic concentration parameters. Between 153 and 380 cm depth, concentration parameters are considerably higher, although somewhat variable. The S ratio and percentage loss of remanence after 24 h (IRM_loss) follow a different trend and are inversely related to each other. A low S ratio (<0.7) is associated with a loss of remanence of >4%. On the basis of these parameters, the core can be divided into four zones, and differences in magnetic mineralogy between these four zones were confirmed by measurement of IRM acquisition curves. The major difference between concentration parameters and ratios or percentage loss of IRM lies in the identification of an additional zone below 619 cm depth where the S ratio is high and IRM_loss is low. There is little evidence to suggest that the magnetic signatures are controlled by particle size or by trends in organic matter and/or carbonate content. The signatures appear to be predominantly detrital and show little evidence of post-depositional alteration through dissolution or authigenic addition of bacterial magnetite or greigite. Analysis of Saharan dust deposition rates in Northern Egypt suggests that atmospheric fallout is likely to make only a very minor contribution (<1%) to sedimentation rates in Lake Qarun. The downcore trends therefore appear to reflect major changes in fluvial sediment sources over the ca. 2,000 year time period spanned by this ～8 m core. Preliminary mineral magnetic characterisations of potential local sources suggest that these cannot account for the range of signatures recorded in the Qarun sediments and it is hypothesised that these sediments are derived from Nile river floods.     

Cenozoic geodynamic evolution of the Andaman–Sumatra subduction margin: Current understanding

The Andaman–Sumatra margin displays a unique set‐up of extensional subduction–accretion complexes, which are the Java Trench, a tectonic (outer arc) prism, a sliver plate, a forearc, oceanic rises, inner‐arc volcanoes, and an extensional back‐arc with active spreading. Existing knowledge is reviewed in this paper, and some new data on the surface and subsurface signatures for operative geotectonics of this margin is analyzed. Subduction‐related deformation along the trench has been operating either continuously or intermittently since the Cretaceous. The oblique subduction has initiated strike–slip motion in the northern Sumatra–Andaman sector, and has formed a sliver plate between the subduction zone and a complex, right‐lateral fault system. The sliver fault, initiated in the Eocene, extended through the outer‐arc ridge offshore from Sumatra, and continued through the Andaman Sea connecting the Sagaing Fault in the north. Dominance of regional plate dynamics over simple subduction‐related accretionary processes led to the development and evolution of sedimentary basins of widely varied tectonic character along this margin. A number of north–south‐trending dismembered ophiolite slices of Cretaceous age, occurring at different structural levels with Eocene trench‐slope sediments, were uplifted and emplaced by a series of east‐dipping thrusts to shape the outer‐arc prism. North–south and east–west strike–slip faults controlled the subsidence, resulting in the development of a forearc basins and record Oligocene to Miocene–Pliocene sedimentation within mixed siliciclastic–carbonate systems. The opening of the Andaman Sea back‐arc occurred in two phases: an early (～11 Ma) stretching and rifting, followed by spreading since 4–5 Ma. The history of inner‐arc volcanic activity in the Andaman region extends to the early Miocene, and since the Miocene arc volcanism has been associated with an evolution from felsic to basaltic composition.     

Analytical and experimental investigations on seismic performance of exterior beam–column subassemblages of existing RC‐framed building

Seismic performance of exterior beam–column subassemblages of reinforced concrete structure designed and detailed on the basis of the provisions of Eurocode and Indian Standards at different stages of their evolution is evaluated. Performance of the subassemblages designed and detailed according to the three different stages of codal evolution (gravity load design, ‘Nonductile’, and ‘Ductile’) is evaluated through analytical formulations and experimental investigations. In the ‘NonDuctile’ specimens, it has been observed that the shear distortion and degradation in stiffness and strength are significantly high. Performance of the ‘Ductile’ specimens based on Eurocode and Indian Standards is almost similar in terms of strength and stiffness degradation. Nevertheless, the specimen designed on the basis of Indian Standard shows higher energy dissipation at a given drift ratio. In the analytical study, shear and flexural failure of members of subassemblage and shear failure of the joint are considered as possible modes of failure of the beam–column subassemblage. For evaluating the shear strength of the joint region, a soften strut‐and‐tie model is used. Analytically obtained strengths based on the failure criteria of different components of the specimens have been first validated with experimental results and then used to determine the strength of the specimens. The investigation could indicate even the mode of failure at local level. It is utmost important to mention here that even the ductile specimens dissipate most of the energy through the development of damage in the joint region, which is neither desirable nor safe for the stability of whole structure. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.