Uncertainties in Predicting Tourist Flows Under Scenarios of Climate Change

Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example, “warmer'' climates generally constitute preferred environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes are essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change, modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable use of renewable resources and loss of biodiversity (Gössling and Hall, 2005). This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change to the advantage or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national economies, as tourism is one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing number of publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socio-economic parameters (e.g. Lise and Tol, 2001; Maddison, 2001; Christ et al., 2003; Hamilton et al., 2003; Hamilton and Tol, 2004). The ultimate goal has been to develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including “most at risk destinations'', both in economic and in environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of importance in developing plans for adaptation.     

Sub-ophiolite metamorphic rocks from NW Anatolia, Turkey

The metamorphic rocks from near Kütahya in north-west Anatolia record different stages in the history of closure of the Neo-Tethyan İzmir–Ankara–Erzincan ocean. Sub-ophiolite metamorphic rocks within the Tavşanlı zone are a tectonically composite sequence of quartz–mica schists, amphibole schists, amphibolites and garnet amphibolites. They show increasing metamorphic grade towards the base of the ophiolite. A first metamorphic event, typical of sub-ophiolite metamorphic sole rocks, was characterized by high-grade assemblages, and followed by retrograde metamorphism. A second event was marked by a medium-to high-pressure overprint of the first-stage metamorphic assemblages with assemblages indicating a transition between the blueschist and greenschist facies. The chemistry of the sub-ophiolite metamorphic rocks indicates an ocean island basalt origin, and Ar–Ar dating indicates a high temperature metamorphic event at 93±2 Ma. Counter-clockwise P–T–t paths recorded by the sub-ophiolite metamorphic rocks are interpreted to result from intra-oceanic thrusting during the closure of the İzmir– Ankara–Erzincan ocean, initiating subduction, which formed the high-temperature assemblages. Further subduction then produced the widespread blueschists of the Tavşanlı zone during the Late Cretaceous. Later cold thrusting obducted the ophiolite (with the metamorphic sole welded to its base), ophiolitic melanges and blueschists onto the Anatolide passive margin in the latest Cretaceous. All these events pre-date the final Anatolide–Pontide continent–continent collision.     

The chemistry of appinitic rocks associated with the Ardara pluton,Donegal, Ireland

Seventeen chemical analyses are given of rocks from appinitic intrusions associated with the Ardara granitic pluton in Donegal, northwest Ireland. The analyses show a series of basic and ultrabasic compositions, the high Al₂O₃, low MgO members of which are closely comparable to basalts, apart from their high water contents. The Ardara appinites are compared with other Caledonian appinitic rocks, and with basic and ultrabasic igneous rocks of other associations, from which the appinitic rocks are shown to be chemically quite distinct. The formation of the appinites is ascribed to crystal accumulation in a basaltic magma enriched in water. The granites associated with appinitic rocks also have distinctive compositions, indicative of formation under a high water pressure.     

Light penetration into Clarens sandstone and implications for deterioration of San rock art

In respect to the weathering of cave art exposed to the sun, cognizance has yet to be taken of the modified thermal conditions and the potential for endolithic biotic activity where the art is located on a light‐transmissive lithology. Where light penetrates rock, the light‐to‐heat transfer is not solely at the surface, and this leads to a thermal gradient that is different from where the paintings are located (and all transfer is at the surface). Light values of up to 200 W/m² were recorded at 0.5 mm depth and up to 100 W/m² at 1mm depth in the dry sandstone; rock moisture data showed that at this site the rock remained dry irrespective of atmospheric conditions. The light penetration means that there can be rapid and large subsurface thermal fluctuations contemporaneous with those at the rock surface, and that the thermal gradient is not as steep (approximately 1°C/mm in the surficial part of the rock) as where light‐to‐heat transfer is solely at the surface. Further, the presence of subsurface photosynthetically active radiation can (potentially) facilitate colonization by endolithic organisms. Here, as part of a study of the weathering of San rock art on sandstone in southern Africa, a first attempt is made to monitor the extent of light penetration and the resulting thermal conditions in the outer few millimeters of the sandstone. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.