Simulating flow in karst aquifers at laboratory and sub-regional scales using MODFLOW-CFP

Groundwater flow in a well-developed karst aquifer dominantly occurs through bedding planes, fractures, conduits, and caves created by and/or enlarged by dissolution. Conventional groundwater modeling methods assume that groundwater flow is described by Darcian principles where primary porosity (i.e. matrix porosity) and laminar flow are dominant. However, in well-developed karst aquifers, the assumption of Darcian flow can be questionable. While Darcian flow generally occurs in the matrix portion of the karst aquifer, flow through conduits can be non-laminar where the relation between specific discharge and hydraulic gradient is non-linear. MODFLOW-CFP is a relatively new modeling program that accounts for non-laminar and laminar flow in pipes, like karst caves, within an aquifer. In this study, results from MODFLOW-CFP are compared to those from MODFLOW-2000/2005, a numerical code based on Darcy’s law, to evaluate the accuracy that CFP can achieve when modeling flows in karst aquifers at laboratory and sub-regional (Woodville Karst Plain, Florida, USA) scales. In comparison with laboratory experiments, simulation results by MODFLOW-CFP are more accurate than MODFLOW 2005. At the sub-regional scale, MODFLOW-CFP was more accurate than MODFLOW-2000 for simulating field measurements of peak flow at one spring and total discharges at two springs for an observed storm event.     

Reionization and the Cosmic Dawn with the Square Kilometre Array

The Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will have a low frequency component (SKA-low) which has as one of its main science goals the study of the redshifted 21 cm line from the earliest phases of star and galaxy formation in the Universe. This 21 cm signal provides a new and unique window both on the time of the formation of the first stars and accreting black holes and the subsequent period of substantial ionization of the intergalactic medium. The signal will teach us fundamental new things about the earliest phases of structure formation, cosmology and even has the potential to lead to the discovery of new physical phenomena. Here we present a white paper with an overview of the science questions that SKA-low can address, how we plan to tackle these questions and what this implies for the basic design of the telescope.     

Miocene silicic volcanism in southwestern Idaho: geochronology,geochemistry, and evolution of the central Snake River Plain

New ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar geochronology, bulk rock geochemical data, and physical characteristics for representative stratigraphic sections of rhyolite ignimbrites and lavas from the west-central Snake River Plain (SRP) are combined to develop a coherent stratigraphic framework for Miocene silicic magmatism in this part of the Yellowstone ‘hotspot track’. The magmatic record differs from that in areas to the west and east with regard to its unusually large extrusive volume, broad lateral scale, and extended duration. We infer that the magmatic systems developed in response to large-scale and repeated injections of basaltic magma into the crust, resulting in significant reconstitution of large volumes of the crust, wide distribution of crustal melt zones, and complex feeder systems for individual eruptive events. Some eruptive episodes or ‘events’ appear to be contemporaneous with major normal faulting, and perhaps catastrophic crustal foundering, that may have triggered concurrent evacuations of separate silicic magma reservoirs. This behavior and cumulative time-composition relations are difficult to relate to simple caldera-style single-source feeder systems and imply complex temporal-spatial development of the silicic magma systems. Inferred volumes and timing of mafic magma inputs, as the driving energy source, require a significant component of lithospheric extension on NNW-trending Basin and Range style faults (i.e., roughly parallel to the SW–NE orientation of the eastern SRP). This is needed to accommodate basaltic inputs at crustal levels, and is likely to play a role in generation of those magmas. Anomalously high magma production in the SRP compared to that in adjacent areas (e.g., northern Basin and Range Province) may require additional sub-lithospheric processes. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: ) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. This paper constitutes part of a special issue dedicated to Bill Bonnichsen on the petrogenesis and volcanology of anorogenic rhyolites.     

Localised coherent response of the La Molina basin (Lima,Peru) to earthquakes,and future approaches suggested by Parkway basin (New Zealand) experience

Earthquake records from a 1984 temporary seismograph array set up in La Molina, Lima, Peru, are re-analysed. The array comprised eight three-component geophones; seven soil based and one rock based. Values of horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) for two small earthquakes peaked at around 1.3 Hz. In one distant earthquake, four of the seven soil-based stations showed a peak at 1.25 Hz in soil-to-rock spectral ratio (SSR), the same dominant frequency observed during an aftershock of a damaging earthquake. Because this frequency is not compatible with the shear wave velocity profile attributed to La Molina, and because the spectral peak is confined to a small ground area, it is concluded that the peak is caused by a localised deposit of soft soil. Because the area associated with the spectral peak includes the area of great damage in 1974, it is concluded that coherent monochromatic behaviour is responsible for the damage.     

Geographies of the Firm and Transnational Agro-food Corporations in East Asia

Agro-food transnational corporations (TNCs) are pivotal players in the emergent regulatory structures of the East Asian agro-food system, but there has been little explicit concern to account theoretically or empirically for their prevailing socio-spatial practices and strategies. This paper uses the case of Nestlé in South East Asia to make three claims. First, transnational corporate strategy is best understood as comprising an interaction of restructuring processes within the arenas of production, realisation (sales), and reproduction (corporate finance and investment). Second, the analysis of agro-food transnationals in Asia requires elevated attention to the local regulation of food systems. Third, in Nestlé's case at least, the articulation of global strategies with local arenas of production and markets encourages corporate finance to play a key role in the generation of profit. This is evidenced through the extensive use of intra-firm trade and royalty payments (or, related party transactions) by Nestlé in Thailand.     

High energy coastal sedimentary deposits; an evaluation of depositional processes in Southwest England

Sediments left by coastal flooding have been observed worldwide and have been variously ascribed to the action of storm surges and tsunami waves. To date, no study has attempted to unequivocally establish on stratigraphical, sedimentological, and palaeoecological grounds the means by which these two different processes might be distinguished in coastal sedimentary sequences. This paper examines the evidence for historical storm surges and tsunamis and shows that both high magnitude events have been documented over the past 250 years in southwest England. Sand layers of varying thickness are present within Holocene lagoonal and peat sequences of several shallow lakes of the Scilly Isles. Detailed analysis of Big Pool, St Agnes, indicates that the basal peats date from around 1000 BP. Within the basal peats are numerous thin sand layers. Above the basal peat is an extensive sand layer 15 to 40 cm thick. The base of this latter layer probably dates from the early to mid 18th century. Particle size, grain surface morphology, diatom, and mineral magnetic studies are used to try and determine the most likely mode of deposition. The results of all analyses are inconclusive, but the weight of evidence suggests that the increasing frequency of thin sand layers in the upper part of the basal peat may be related to the increasing frequency and intensity of Atlantic storms during the Little Ice Age superimposed upon a rising sea level. The thick sand layer may have been deposited by the tsunami wave generated by the Lisbon earthquake of November 1,1755. Due to the difficulties in distinguishing depositional processes in coastal environments known to have been affected by storm surges and tsunami waves, it is suggested that generally accepted sedimentological techniques are inadequate for discriminating depositional processes in coastal environments.     

Data assimilation methods for estimating a heterogeneous conductivity field by assimilating transient solute transport data via ensemble Kalman filter

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is developed to identify a hydraulic conductivity distribution in a heterogeneous medium by assimilating solute concentration measurements of solute transport in the field with a steady‐state flow. A synthetic case with the mixed Neumann/Dirichlet boundary conditions is designed to investigate the capacity of the data assimilation methods to identify a conductivity distribution. The developed method is demonstrated in 2‐D transient solute transport with two different initial instant solute injection areas. The influences of the observation error and model error on the updated results are considered in this study. The study results indicate that the EnKF method will significantly improve the estimation of the hydraulic conductivity field by assimilating solute concentration measurements. The larger area of the initial distribution and the more observed data obtained, the better the calculation results. When the standard deviation of the observation error varies from 1% to 30% of the solute concentration measurements, the simulated results by the data assimilation method do not change much, which indicates that assimilation results are not very sensitive to the standard deviation of the observation error in this study. When the inflation factor is more than 1.0 to enlarge the model error by increasing the forecast error covariance matrix, the updated results of the hydraulic conductivity by the data assimilation method are not good at all. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-gas Emissions Pathways to Meet Climate Targets

So far, climate change mitigation pathways focus mostly on CO₂ and a limited number of climate targets. Comprehensive studies of emission implications have been hindered by the absence of a flexible method to generate multi-gas emissions pathways, user-definable in shape and the climate target. The presented method ‘Equal Quantile Walk’ (EQW) is intended to fill this gap, building upon and complementing existing multi-gas emission scenarios. The EQW method generates new mitigation pathways by ‘walking along equal quantile paths’ of the emission distributions derived from existing multi-gas IPCC baseline and stabilization scenarios. Considered emissions include those of CO₂ and all other major radiative forcing agents (greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and sulphur aerosols). Sample EQW pathways are derived for stabilization at 350 ppm to 750 ppm CO₂ concentrations and compared to WRE profiles. Furthermore, the ability of the method to analyze emission implications in a probabilistic multi-gas framework is demonstrated. The probability of overshooting a 2 ^∘C climate target is derived by using different sets of EQW radiative forcing peaking pathways. If the probability shall not be increased above 30%, it seems necessary to peak CO₂ equivalence concentrations around 475 ppm and return to lower levels after peaking (below 400 ppm). EQW emissions pathways can be applied in studies relating to Article 2 of the UNFCCC, for the analysis of climate impacts, adaptation and emission control implications associated with certain climate targets. See for EQW-software and data.