The tidal range energy potential of the West Coast of the United Kingdom

With concerns mounting over the UK’s energy future and the effects of climate change, it will soon become paramount that all viable sources of renewable energy are fully exploited. This study has examined the scope for reliable and fully predictable tidal electricity generation from the conjunctive operation of 5 major estuary barrages on the West Coast of the UK in an attempt to establish the potential scale of the extractable resources. Two levels of investigation have been undertaken: simple 0-D (‘two-tank’) modelling of barrage energy generation under different operational modes, using the hydraulic characteristics of turbine performance; and 2-D modelling of tidal hydrodynamics over a wide sea area in a computational grid incorporating the barrages with turbines and sluices. It has been demonstrated that more than 33TWh per year of electricity should be attainable, from 22GW of installed capacity, this representing close to 10% of present UK demand.     

The structural,geometric and volumetric changes of a polythermal Arctic glacier during a surge cycle: Comfortlessbreen,Svalbard

Various parameters of the most recent surge of the polythermal glacier Comfortlessbreen in northwest Svalbard, have been assessed through a combination of remote sensing and ground observations. Analysis of a digital elevation model time‐series shows a marked change in the geometry of the glacier from quiescence (1990 and earlier) into the late surge phase (2009). The transfer of 0.74 km³ of ice caused up to 80 m of surface drawdown in the reservoir area, above the equilibrium line, whilst ice built up in a spatially concentrated manner in the receiving zone, below the equilibrium line. A ramp of ice, c. 100 m above quiescent level, developed in the lower reaches of the glacier late in the surge. Also in the lower reaches of the glacier, structures attributable to the passage of a kinematic wave are identified and the migration of a surge front on the glacier is thus inferred. In a conceptual model, we consider that a bend in the valley, in which the glacier resides, and convergence with tributary glaciers, to be significant factors in the style of surge evolution. Their flow‐restrictive interference results in slow initial mass‐transfer and the growth of a surge front within 3–4 km of the terminus. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Aircraft and ship observations of the mean structure of the marine boundary layer over the Arabian Sea during MONEX 79

Analysis of the mean wind, equivalent potential temperature and virtual potential temperature profiles observed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Electra aircraft and obtained from dropwindsondes and ship-launched radiosondes were made in conjunction with synoptic observations to study the structure of the monsoon boundary layer over the Arabian Sea during MONEX 79. Comparison of mean profiles indicates the monsoon boundary layer to be much different from the trade wind boundary layer. Results confirm the existence of a boundary-layer jet known as East African or Somali Jet. Regions of multiple cloud layers at roughly the height of the capping inversion layer were associated with the jet. Regions in which a more well-mixed layer was observed showed a jet structure depressed in height. A free-jet surface-layer model appears to describe the mean wind structure of this jet observed during the present study and by others. An approximate balance of forces was found in the monsoon boundary layer between friction, advective acceleration, Coriolis and pressure gradient forces. Friction and advective acceleration terms were significant in the lower levels of the boundary layer. Forces in a typical trade wind boundary layer were found to be approximately one order of magnitude smaller than those observed in the monsoon boundary layer.     

Using constrained inversion of gravity and magnetic field to produce a 3D litho‐prediction model

Geologically constrained inversion of gravity and magnetic field data of the Victoria property (located in Sudbury, Canada) was undertaken in order to update the present three‐dimensional geological model. The initial and reference model was constructed based on geological information from over 950 drillholes to constrain the inversion. In addition, downhole density and magnetic susceptibility measured in six holes were statistically analysed to derive lower and upper bounds on the physical properties attributed to the lithological units in the reference model. Constrained inversion of the ground gravity and the airborne magnetic data collected at the Victoria property were performed using GRAV3D and MAG3D, respectively. A neural network was trained to predict lithological units from the physical properties measured in six holes. Then, the trained network was applied on the three‐dimensional distribution of physical properties derived from the inversion models to produce a three‐dimensional litho‐prediction model. Some of the features evident in the lithological model are remnants of the constraints, where the data did not demand a significant change in the model from the initial constraining model (e.g., the thin pair of diabase dykes). However, some important changes away from the initial model are evident; for example, a larger body was predicted for quartz diorite, which may be related to the prospective offset dykes; a new zone was predicted as sulfide, which may represent potential mineralisation; and a geophysical subcategory of metabasalt was identified with high magnetic susceptibility and high density. The litho‐prediction model agrees with the geological expectation for the three‐dimensional structure at Victoria and is consistent with the geophysical data, which results in a more holistic understanding of the subsurface lithology.     

运用STOMP数值模拟器进行多空介质中尿素水解以及方解石沉淀数值模拟

遍布于美国能源部所辖野外场地的地下放射性核素和痕量金属污染对美国能源部的长期监管职能提出了最严峻的挑战。目前较有前景的一个原地固化污染物方法是利用尿素酶催化尿素水解,进而推动方解石沉淀及与之共同沉淀。运用STOMP数值模拟器实施一系列反应性溶质数值模拟来研究系统中水流、运移、反应与反应导致的介质性质变化之间的紧密的非线性耦合,并在研究中系统性增加反应系统的复杂度和物理-化学的非均质性以考察模拟效果。通过调整反应速率表达式中尿素酶浓度和沉淀反应常数,对尿素水解和方解石沉淀速率进行了敏感度分析。结果显示:尿素水解速率是矿物沉淀总量的决定性因素,沉淀物的空间分布既取决于水解速率也取决于沉淀速率;在一维水流柱6个空隙体积的时间段模拟中,观察到了5%的最大空隙度减少;当二维模拟中考虑一个低渗透性包裹体时,被改变的流场重新对生成的沉淀组成物进行了分布,形成了扭曲的反应锋面。模拟结果也显示沉淀在低渗透性区域边界上形成,这说明位于这个区域里面的污染物可能被囊裹而从流线中被隔离起来。     

Multi-gas Emissions Pathways to Meet Climate Targets

So far, climate change mitigation pathways focus mostly on CO₂ and a limited number of climate targets. Comprehensive studies of emission implications have been hindered by the absence of a flexible method to generate multi-gas emissions pathways, user-definable in shape and the climate target. The presented method ‘Equal Quantile Walk’ (EQW) is intended to fill this gap, building upon and complementing existing multi-gas emission scenarios. The EQW method generates new mitigation pathways by ‘walking along equal quantile paths’ of the emission distributions derived from existing multi-gas IPCC baseline and stabilization scenarios. Considered emissions include those of CO₂ and all other major radiative forcing agents (greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and sulphur aerosols). Sample EQW pathways are derived for stabilization at 350 ppm to 750 ppm CO₂ concentrations and compared to WRE profiles. Furthermore, the ability of the method to analyze emission implications in a probabilistic multi-gas framework is demonstrated. The probability of overshooting a 2 ^∘C climate target is derived by using different sets of EQW radiative forcing peaking pathways. If the probability shall not be increased above 30%, it seems necessary to peak CO₂ equivalence concentrations around 475 ppm and return to lower levels after peaking (below 400 ppm). EQW emissions pathways can be applied in studies relating to Article 2 of the UNFCCC, for the analysis of climate impacts, adaptation and emission control implications associated with certain climate targets. See for EQW-software and data.     

Assessment of radionuclide transport uncertainty in the unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain

The present study assesses the uncertainty of flow and radionuclide transport in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain using a Monte Carlo method. Matrix permeability, porosity, and sorption coefficient are considered random. Different from previous studies that assume distributions of the parameters, the distributions are determined in this study by applying comprehensive transformations and rigorous statistics to on-site measurements of the parameters. The distribution of permeability is further adjusted based on model calibration results. Correlation between matrix permeability and porosity is incorporated using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. After conducting 200 Monte Carlo simulations of three-dimensional unsaturated flow and radionuclide transport for conservative and reactive tracers, the mean, variances, and 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles for quantities of interest (e.g., matrix liquid saturation and water potential) are evaluated. The mean and 50th percentile are used as the mean predictions, and their associated predictive uncertainties are measured by the variances and the 5th and 95th percentiles (also known as uncertainty bounds). The mean predictions of matrix liquid saturation and water potential are in reasonable agreement with corresponding measurements. The uncertainty bounds include a large portion of the measurements, suggesting that the data variability can be partially explained by parameter uncertainty. The study illustrates propagation of predictive uncertainty of percolation flux, increasing downward from repository horizon to water table. Statistics from the breakthrough curves indicate that transport of the reactive tracer is delayed significantly by the sorption process, and prediction on the reactive tracer is of greater uncertainty than on the conservative tracer because randomness in the sorption coefficient increases the prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in radionuclide transport is related to uncertainty in the percolation flux, suggesting that reducing the former entails reduction in the latter.