Perspectives on present-day sea level change: a tribute to Christian le Provost

In this paper, we first discuss the controversial result of the work by Cabanes et al. (Science 294:840–842, 2001), who suggested that the rate of past century sea level rise may have been overestimated, considering the limited and heterogeneous location of historical tide gauges and the high regional variability of thermal expansion which was supposed to dominate the observed sea level. If correct, this conclusion would have solved the problem raised by the IPCC third assessment report [Church et al, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 881, 2001], namely, the factor two difference between the 20th century observed sea level rise and the computed climatic contributions. However, recent investigations based on new ocean temperature data sets indicate that thermal expansion only explains part (about 0.4 mm/year) of the 1.8 mm/year observed sea level rise of the past few decades. In fact, the Cabanes et al.’s conclusion was incorrect due to a contamination of abnormally high ocean temperature data in the Gulf Stream area that led to an overestimate of thermal expansion in this region. In this paper, we also estimate thermal expansion over the last decade (1993–2003), using a new ocean temperature and salinity database. We compare our result with three other estimates, two being based on global gridded data sets, and one based on an approach similar to that developed here. It is found that the mean rate of thermosteric sea level rise over the past decade is 1.5±0.3 mm/year, i.e. 50% of the observed 3 mm/year by satellite altimetry. For both time spans, past few decades and last decade, a contribution of 1.4 mm/year is not explained by thermal expansion, thus needs to be of water mass origin. Direct estimates of land ice melt for the recent years account for about 1 mm/year sea level rise. Thus, at least for the last decade, we have moved closer to explaining the observed rate of sea level rise than the IPCC third assessment report.     

Bubble-induced porewater mixing: A 3-D model for deep porewater irrigation

Porewater data from vent sites of the northeastern shelf off Sakhalin Island, Sea of Okhotsk, exhibit bottom-water concentrations down to a sediment depth of up to 300 cm. Below this depth, solute concentrations rapidly change due to methanogenesis and anaerobic methane oxidation (AMO). The profile shapes suggest an irrigation-like process that mixes on a meter scale. At these sites active gas emanation into the overlying water column and near-surface gas hydrates are commonly observed. We propose that methane gas bubbles rise through the soft surface sediments and cause mixing of the porewater.Mathematically, the bubble-induced irrigation can be described by eddy diffusion enhancing the diffusive transport of solutes by several orders of magnitude. A 3-D numerical transport-reaction model was developed to investigate the parameters defining the mixing process, such as bubble rise velocity, tube size, tube distribution in the sediment, and ebullition frequency.Model consistency with the field data requires eddy diffusivities ?1 × 10⁵ cm²/a, tube densities of >4 tubes/m² (equivalent to a tube spacing of <40 cm), active gas seepage for more than a few weeks or months, and moderate to low diagenetic reaction rates of solutes. The corresponding methane gas fluxes that are predicted from the results of the model realizations range from 1 × 10³-5 × 10⁵ L/(m² a). Due to bubble mixing, solute fluxes in these sediments are increased by a factor of 3 and the maximum AMO rate by a factor of 7.     

A multi-equation spatial econometric model,with application to EU manufacturing productivity growth

A multi-equation spatial econometric model is used to explain variations across EU regions in manufacturing productivity growth based on recent theoretical developments in urban economics and economic geography. The paper shows that temporal and spatial parameter homogeneity is an unrealistic assumption, contrary to what is typically assumed in the literature. Constraints are imposed on parameters across time periods and between core and peripheral regions of the EU, with the significant loss of fit providing overwhelming evidence of parameter heterogeneity, although the final model does highlight increasing returns to scale, which is a central feature of contemporary theory.      

一种高精度的干涉雷达复数影像配准方法

在总结现有算法的基础上,提出了基于相干系数、Harris特征点、小波金字塔及TIN三角微分纠正技术的单视复数雷达图像的配准流程。通过ERS 1/2的实验表明,提高了配准的精度和效率,特别是保证了在没有精确轨道甚至没有轨道参数的情况下也能获得很高的配准精度,计算正确的干涉相位图。在重采样过程中采用的三角联网策略,进一步使匹配点的局部拟合误差得到有效控制,得到配准精度更高的复图像对。在CPU 3.06GHz计算机上,43 s内完成5000像素×1000像素的主辅图像的配准,平均相干系数为0.719855。     

On the Power in the Legendre Modes of the Solar Radial Magnetic Field

The power in the different modes of an expansion of the solar radial magnetic field at the surface in terms of Legendre polynomials,P , is calculated with the help of a solar dynamo model studied earlier. The model is of the Babcock–Leighton type, i.e., the surface eruptions of the toroidal magnetic field – through the tilt angle, , formed by the magnetic axis of a bipolar magnetic region with the east-west line – are the sources for the poloidal field. In this paper it is assumed that the tilt angle is subject to fluctuations of the form, = ()+ <> where <> is the average value and () is a random normal fluctuation with standard deviation which is taken from Howard's observations of the distribution of tilt angles. For numerical considerations, negative values of were not allowed. If this occurred, was recalculated. The numerical integrations were started with a toroidal magnetic field antisymmetric across the equator, large enough to generate eruptions, and a negligible poloidal field. The fluctuations in the tilt angle destroy the antisymmetry as time increases. The power of the antisymmetric modes across the equator (i.e., odd values of ) is concentrated in frequencies, _p, corresponding to the cycle period. The maximum power lies in the =3 mode with considerable power in the =5 mode, in broad agreement with Stenflo's results who finds a maximum power at =5. For the symmetric modes, there is considerable power in frequencies larger than _p, again in broad agreement with Stenflo's power spectrum.     

Thickness estimates of the upper-mantle transition zone from bootstrapped velocity spectrum stacks of receiver functions

We modify the receiver-functions stacking technique known as velocity spectrum stacking (VSS) so as to estimate combinations of velocity model ( V_P and V_S ) and depth that stack the Ps conversion from upper-mantle discontinuities most coherently. We find that by estimating the differences in the depths to the 660 and 410 km discontinuities using velocities that maximize the stacked amplitudes of P410s and P660s phases we can estimate the thickness of the transition zone more accurately than the depths to either of these discontinuities. We present two examples indicating that the transition zone beneath Obninsk, Russia, is 252±6 km thick and that beneath Pasadena, California, is only 220±6 km thick.     

Non-equilibrium alcohol flooding model for immiscible phase remediation: 1. Equation development

The equations for a compositional model for simulation of a two-phase, three-component system with inter-phase mass transfer are developed. Emphasis is placed on development of inter-phase mass transfer equations for incorporation of rate-limited inter-phase mass transfer. Due to the nature of the three-component systems considered, a single-film model may be inadequate and a two-film model must be utilized. A two-film model accounts for the simultaneous transfer of components in both directions across phase interfaces. The effect of interaction between components on diffusion is considered using a general form of Fick's Law. A Hand Plot representation of ternary phase behavior is chosen since it allows for straightforward calculation of miscibility of bulk phases under conditions of local non-equilibrium. The developed set of equations form the basis for a numerical model to simulate the enhanced removal of non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) from porous media using single-component alcohol floods.     

Depth of the base of the Jackson aquifer, based on geophysical exploration, southern Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA

 A geophysical survey was conducted to determine the depth of the base of the water-table aquifer in the southern part of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA. Audio-magnetotellurics (AMT) measurements at 77 sites in the study area yielded electrical-resistivity logs of the subsurface, and these were used to infer lithologic changes with depth. A 100–600 ohm-m geoelectric layer, designated the Jackson aquifer, was used to represent surficial saturated, unconsolidated deposits of Quaternary age. The median depth of the base of the Jackson aquifer is estimated to be 200 ft (61 m), based on 62 sites that had sufficient resistivity data. AMT-measured values were kriged to predict the depth to the base of the aquifer throughout the southern part of Jackson Hole. Contour maps of the kriging predictions indicate that the depth of the base of the Jackson aquifer is shallow in the central part of the study area near the East and West Gros Ventre Buttes, deeper in the west near the Teton fault system, and shallow at the southern edge of Jackson Hole. Predicted, contoured depths range from 100 ft (30 m) in the south, near the confluences of Spring Creek and Flat Creek with the Snake River, to 700 ft (210 m) in the west, near the town of Wilson, Wyoming. Received, May 1997 · Revised, February 1998 · Accepted, April 1998     

Lattice dynamical system modelling of molecular clouds

Because a comprehensive microscopic treatment of interstellar molecular clouds is out of reach, an alternative approach is proposed in which most of the crucial ingredients of the problem are considered, but at some 'minimal' level of modelling. This leads to the elaboration of a lattice dynamical system , i.e. a time-dependent, spatially extended, deterministic system of macroscopic cells coupled through radiative transfer. Each cell is characterized by a small set of variables and supports a caricatural chemistry possessing the essential dynamical features of more realistic reaction schemes.   This approach naturally precludes quantitative results, but allows heretofore unavailable insights into some of the basic mechanisms at play. We focus on the response of the transfer process and the chemistry to a frozen 'turbulent' velocity field. It is shown that the system settles generically into a state where the effective coupling between cells is neither local nor global, and for which no single length-scale exists.   The spectral lines reconstructed from the spatiotemporal evolution of our model may, depending on the velocity field, exhibit profiles ranging from Gaussian to bimodal with strong realization effects. In the bimodal case, the model intrinsically displays an energy cascade transport mechanism to the cells that cool most efficiently: the feedback of chemistry on radiative transfer cannot be neglected.   Finally, extensions of this work are discussed and future developments are outlined.