Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.     

Precipitation measurement with automated tipping-bucket rain gauges

Results of measurement of rainfall intensity and accumulated amounts with an automated tipping-bucket rain gauge based on an updated DZhO M96-8 precipitation gauge are presented. The measurement were carried out in the town of Dolgoprudny (Moscow region) in 2002–2005. The design, data processing algorithm, and calibration of the tipping-bucket rain gauge are described, and estimates of the measurement error are calculated. Examples of tipping-bucket rain gauge measurements in shower and widespread precipitation are given, along with results of analysis of the statistical structure of precipitation by intensity gradations. The measurement results are compared with those of precipitation gauges, the P-2 recording rain gauge, and the AKSOPRI radar complex.     

What controls submarine channel development and the morphology of deltas entering deep-water fjords?

River deltas and associated turbidity current systems produce some of the largest and most rapid sediment accumulations on our planet. These systems bury globally significant volumes of organic carbon and determine the runout distance of potentially hazardous sediment flows and the shape of their deposits. Here we seek to understand the main factors that determine the morphology of turbidity current systems linked to deltas in fjords, and why some locations have well developed submarine channels while others do not. Deltas and associated turbidity current systems are analysed initially in five fjord systems from British Columbia in Canada, and then more widely. This provides the basis for a general classification of delta and turbidity current system types, where rivers enter relatively deep (>200 m) water. Fjord-delta area is found to be strongly bimodal. Avalanching of coarse-grained bedload delivered by steep mountainous rivers produces small Gilbert-type fan deltas, whose steep gradient (11°–25°) approaches the sediment's angle of repose. Bigger fjord-head deltas are associated with much larger and finer-grained rivers. These deltas have much lower gradients (1.5°–10°) that decrease offshore in a near exponential fashion. The lengths of turbidity current channels are highly variable, even in settings fed by rivers with similar discharges. This may be due to resetting of channel systems by delta-top channel avulsions or major offshore landslides, as well as the amount and rate of sediment supplied to the delta front by rivers. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Episodic colonization of an intertidal mudflat by native cordgrass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Spartina foliosa</Emphasis>) at Tijuana Estuary

Following heavy winter storms and sedimentation in 1993,Spartina foliosa (Pacific cordgrass) clones established on a 6.5-ha mudflat in Tijuana Estuary, with over 80 new clones counted by 1997. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) storms in 1993 apparently facilitated the habitat conversion through river flooding, which caused a temporary reduction in soil salinity and delivered large volumes of sediment. Extreme sedimentation likely raised mudflat elevations enough to allowSpartina establishment. We hypothesized that clones, once established, increased sedimentation in a positive feedback loop leading to accelerated habitat conversion. We collected data on elevation,Spartina expansion, and sediment accretion in two consecutive years (1998–1999). The elevation range of the mudflats in 1998 (0.5–0.83 m NGVD) was within the elevation range ofSpartina at this site (0.39–0.83 m NGVD), indicating that remaining mudflats are at elevations suitable for further expansion. Sediment accretion ranged from 4.0–12.7 cm between 1997–1998 (ENSO conditions), but was close to long-term averages (? cm yr^?1) in 1998–1999 (nonflood year) indicating how susceptible Tijuana Estuary is to sedimentation from episodic storms. Although accretion rates were similar withinSpartina clones and on bare mudflats over the ENSO winter, clones were typically dome-shaped suggesting higher sediment retention rates within clones. The radial expansion rates of clones (1.31±0.25 m in 1998; 1.12±0.07 m in 1999) approximated the maxima reported for this species and were not related to clone size or vigor. Conditions on the mudflat appear ideal forSpartina growth, masking differences that might otherwise be observed. Given the likelihood of sedimentation-driven habitat conversion in southern California and other Mediterranean-type estuaries, management efforts are needed to address sedimentation issues on a watershed scale. We recommend that wetland restoration projects in southern California include large areas of intertidal mudflat, both to maintain habitat for shorebird feeding and to allow colonization by salt marsh vegetation.     

Sediment toxicity in the Hudson-Raritan estuary: Distribution and correlations with chemical contamination

The Hudson-Raritan Estuary is one of several United States coastal areas where chemical data have suggested a potential for contaminant-related biological effects, and multiyear intensive bioeffects surveys have been conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The severity and spatial patterns in sediment toxicity were determined in an estuary-wide survey during spring 1991 using amphipods, bivalve larvae, and luminescent bacteria as test organisms. Spatial patterns in toxicity corresponded to the distributions of a number of toxic chemicals in the sediments. Areas that exhibited the greatest sediment toxicity included the upper East River, Arthur Kill, Newark Bay, and Sandy Hook Bay. The lower Hudson River adjacent to Manhattan Island, upper New York Harbor, lower New York Harbor off Staten Island, and parts of western Raritan Bay generally showed lower toxicity. Supporting chemical analyses of the sediments, including acid-volatile sulfide and simultaneously-extracted metals, suggested that metals were generally not the cause of the observed toxicity, with the possible exception of mercury. Among all contaminants analyzed, toxicity was most strongly associated with polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, which were substantially more concentrated in toxic samples than in nontoxic samples, and which frequently exceeded sediment quality criteria.