Options to overcome the barriers to pricing European agricultural emissions

Although agriculture could contribute substantially to European emission reductions, its mitigation potential lies untapped and dormant. Market-based instruments could be pivotal in incentivizing cost-effective abatement. However, sector specificities in transaction costs, leakage risks and distributional impacts impede its implementation. The significance of such barriers critically hinges on the dimensions of policy design. This article synthesizes the work on emissions pricing in agriculture together with the literature on the design of market-based instruments. To structure the discussion, an options space is suggested to map policy options, focusing on three key dimensions of policy design. More specifically, it examines the role of policy coverage, instruments and transfers to farmers in overcoming the barriers. First, the results show that a significant proportion of agricultural emissions and mitigation potential could be covered by a policy targeting large farms and few emission sources, thereby reducing transaction costs. Second, whether an instrument is voluntary or mandatory influences distributional outcomes and leakage. Voluntary instruments can mitigate distributional concerns and leakage risks but can lead to subsidy lock-in and carbon price distortion. Third, the impact on transfers resulting from the interaction of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) with emissions pricing will play a key role in shaping political feasibility and has so far been underappreciated.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, European climate policy is at a crossroads. Achieving cost-effectively the 2030 and 2050 European targets requires all sectors to reduce their emissions. Yet, the cornerstone of European climate policy, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), covers only about half of European emissions. Major sectors have been so far largely exempted from carbon pricing, in particular transport and agriculture. While transport has been increasingly under the spotlight as a possible candidate for an EU ETS sectoral expansion, policy discussions on pricing agricultural emissions have been virtually absent. This article attempts to fill this gap by investigating options for market-based instruments to reduce agricultural emissions while taking barriers to implementation into account.     

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.     

Comparing threshold definition techniques for rainfall‐induced landslides: A national assessment using radar rainfall

Translational landslides and debris flows are often initiated during intense or prolonged rainfall. Empirical thresholds aim to classify the rain conditions that are commonly associated with landslide occurrence and therefore improve understating of these hazards and predictive ability. Objective techniques that are used to determine these thresholds are likely to be affected by the length of the rain record used, yet this is not routinely considered. Moreover, remotely sensed spatially continuous rainfall observations are under‐exploited. This study compares and evaluates the effect of rain record length on two objective threshold selection techniques in a national assessment of Scotland using weather radar data. Thresholds selected by ‘threat score’ are sensitive to rain record length whereas, in a first application to landslides, ‘optimal point’ (OP) thresholds prove relatively consistent. OP thresholds increase landslide detection and may therefore be applicable in early‐warning systems. Thresholds combining 1‐ and 12‐day antecedence variables best distinguish landslide initiation conditions and indicate that Scottish landslides may be initiated by lower rain accumulation and intensities than previously thought. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Study on the urban heat island effects and its relationship with surface biophysical characteristics using MODIS imageries

This study assesses surface urban heat island (UHI) and its associated surface physical characteristics using remote sensing approaches. TERRA/MODIS images acquired in 2005 in three different seasons were selected to generate land surface tem-perature and surface characteristics for the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan metropolitan area in China. The intensity of urban heat is-land effects and its seasonal variations were examined. The result showed that UHI effects were significant both in the summer and the spri...     

Hillslopes in humid-tropical climates aren't always wet: Implications for hydrologic response and landslide initiation in Puerto Rico

The devastating impacts of the widespread flooding and landsliding in Puerto Rico following the September 2017 landfall of Hurricane Maria highlight the increasingly extreme atmospheric disturbances and enhanced hazard potential in mountainous humid-tropical climate zones. Long-standing conceptual models for hydrologically driven hazards in Puerto Rico posit that hillslope soils remain wet throughout the year, and therefore, that antecedent soil wetness imposes a negligible effect on hazard potential. Our post-Maria in situ hillslope hydrologic observations, however, indicate that while some slopes remain wet throughout the year, others exhibit appreciable seasonal and intra-storm subsurface drainage. Therefore, we evaluated the performance of hydro-meteorological (soil wetness and rainfall) versus intensity-duration (rainfall only) hillslope hydrologic response thresholds that identify the onset of positive pore-water pressure, a predisposing factor for widespread slope instability in this region. Our analyses also consider the role of soil-water storage and infiltration rates on runoff generation, which are relevant factors for flooding hazards. We found that the hydro-meteorological thresholds outperformed intensity-duration thresholds for a seasonally wet, coarse-grained soil, although they did not outperform intensity-duration thresholds for a perennially wet, fine-grained soil. These end-member soils types may also produce radically different stormflow responses, with subsurface flow being more common for the coarse-grained soils underlain by intrusive rocks versus infiltration excess and/or saturation excess for the fine-grained soils underlain by volcaniclastic rocks. We conclude that variability in soil-hydraulic properties, as opposed to climate zone, is the dominant factor that controls runoff generation mechanisms and modulates the relative importance of antecedent soil wetness for our hillslope hydrologic response thresholds.     

Comparison of environmental tracers including organic micropollutants as groundwater exfiltration indicators into a small river of a karstic catchment

Understanding groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions is vital for water management in karstic catchments due to its impact on water quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare the applicability of seven environmental tracers to quantify and localize groundwater exfiltration into a small, human-impacted karstic river system. Tracers were selected based on their emission source to the surface water either as (a) dissolved, predominantly geogenic compounds (radon-222, sulphate and electrical conductivity) or (b) anthropogenic compounds (predominantly) originating from wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents (carbamazepine, tramadol, sodium, chloride). Two contrasting sampling approaches were compared (a) assuming steady-state flow conditions and (b) considering the travel time of the water parcels (Lagrangian sampling) through the catchment to account for diurnal changes in inflow from the WWTP. Spatial variability of the concentrations of all tracers indicated sections of preferential groundwater inflow. Lagrangian sampling techniques seem highly relevant for capturing dynamic concentration patterns of WWTP-derived compounds. Quantification of GW inflow with the finite element model FINIFLUX, based on observed in-stream Rn activities led to plausible fluxes along the investigated river reaches (0.265 m³ s⁻¹), while observations of other natural or anthropogenic environmental tracers produced less plausible water fluxes. Important point sources of groundwater exfiltration can be ascribed to locations where the river crosses geological fault lines. This indicates that commonly applied concepts describing groundwater–surface water interactions assuming diffuse flow in porous media are difficult to transfer to karstic river systems whereas concepts from fractured aquifers may be more applicable. In general, this study helps selecting the best suited hydrological tracer for GW exfiltration and leads to a better understanding of processes controlling groundwater inflow into karstic river systems.