What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

A siphon mechanism for supplying prominence mass

We examine a siphon-like mechanism for moving mass from the chromosphere to a gravitational well at the top of a magnetic loop to form a prominence. The calculations assume no apriori flow velocity at the loop base. Instead heating in the loop legs drives the flow. The prominence formation process requires two steps. First, the background heating rate must be reduced to on the order of 1 % of the initial heating rate required to maintain the coronal loop. This forms an initial condensation at the top of the loop. Second, the heating must take place only in the loop legs in order to produce a pressure differential which drives mass up into the well at the top of the loop. The heating rate in the loop must be increased once the prominence has begun to form or full prominence densities can not be achieved in a reasonable time. We conclude that this heating driven siphon-like mechanism is feasible for producing and maintaining prominences.     

Entry dynamics and acoustics/infrasonic/seismic analysis for the Neuschwanstein meteorite fall

Abstract— We have analyzed several types of data associated with the well‐documented fall of the Neuschwanstein meteorites on April 6, 2002 (a total of three meteorites have been recovered). This includes ground‐based photographic and radiometer data as well as infrasound and seismic data from this very significant bolide event (Spurný et al. 2002, 2003). We have also used these data to model the entry of Neuschwanstein, including the expected dynamics, energetics, panchromatic luminosity, and associated fragmentation effects. In addition, we have calculated the differential efficiency of acoustical waves for Neuschwanstein and used these values to compare against the efficiency calculated using available ground‐based infrasound data. This new numerical technique has allowed the source height to be determined independent of ray tracing solutions. We have also carried out theoretical ray tracing for a moving point source (not strictly a cylindrical line emission) and for an infinite speed line source. In addition, we have determined the ray turning heights as a function of the source height for both initially upward and downward propagating rays, independent of the explicit ray tracing (detailed propagation path) programs. These results all agree on the origins of the acoustic emission and explicit source heights for Neuschwanstein for the strongest infrasonic signals. Calculated source energies using more than four different independent approaches agree that Neuschwanstein was certainly <500 kg in initial mass, given the initial velocity of 20.95 km/s, resulting in an initial source energy ≤0.0157‐0.0276 kt TNT equivalent (4.185 times 10¹² J). Local source energies at the calculated infrasonic/seismic source altitudes are up to two orders of magnitude smaller than this initial source energy.     

Spectroscopy of comet P/Schaumasse

Column density profiles for CN, C₃, C₂ and NH have been determined from a long-slit CCD spectrum of periodic comet P/Schaumasse (1992x). Comparisons of these profiles with Haser models indicate that the ratios of the CN, C₃ and C₂ production rates are typical for a short-period comet. Although the scale lengths for NH and its parent species are uncertain, the results indicate that the production rate for NH is much greater than for either C₂ or CN.     

Possible meteoroid streams associated with (69230) Hermes and 2002 SY50

The orbits of (69230) Hermes and 2002 SY₅₀ are similar and the Earth approaches both of them twice: at the end of October the local orbital minimum distances are smaller than 0.007 AU, and at the end of April the distances are smaller than 0.04 AU. This gives us opportunities to observe the meteors associated with these asteroids. Using the geocentric parameters of the orbital close encounters (the theoretical radiants) and our D _N distance function (Valsecchi et al. Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 304 (1999) 743), we searched for meteoroids originated by Hermes and 2002 SY₅₀. A search among 1830 good quality photographic meteors gave negative results: we found no meteor dynamically similar to Hermes or 2002 SY₅₀. In a second search, done in a set of 62150 radio meteors, we applied two methods (M1, M2) and in both cases we found two streams; the streams found with the M1 method had 43 and 30 members, those found with the M2 method had 39 and 14 members. However, these results do not look convincing, due to the small number of common members in the corresponding streams. We therefore conclude that amongst the IAU meteors used in our search there are no compact streams associated with Hermes and 2002 SY₅₀.     

A measurement of the 362 GHz absorption line of Mars atmospheric H2O2

The 362.156 GHz absorption spectrum of H₂O₂ in the Mars atmosphere was observed on September 4 of 2003, employing the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) sub-millimeter facility on Mauna Kea, Hawaii. Radiative transfer analysis of this line absorption yields an average volume mixing ratio of 18±0.4 ppbv within the lower (0-30 km) Mars atmosphere, in general accordance with standard photochemical models (e.g., Nair et al., 1994, Icarus 111, 124-150). Our derived H₂O₂ abundance is roughly three times greater than the upper limit retrieved by Encrenaz et al. (2002, Astron. Astrophys. 396, 1037-1044) from infrared spectroscopy, although part of this discrepancy may result from the different solar longitudes (L_s) of observation. Aphelion-to-perihelion thermal forcing of the global Mars hygropause generates substantial (>200%) increases in HO_x abundances above ∼10 km altitudes between the L_s=112° period of the Encrenaz et al. upper limit measurement and the current L_s=250° period of detection (Clancy and Nair, 1996, J. Geophys. Res. 101, 12785-12590). The observed H₂O₂ line absorption weakens arguments for non-standard homogeneous (Encrenaz et al., 2002, Astron. Astrophys. 396, 1037-1044) or heterogeneous (Krasnopolsky, 2003a, J. Geophys. Res. 108; 2003b, Icarus 165, 315-325) chemistry, which have been advocated partly on the basis of infrared (8 μm) non-detections for Mars H₂O₂. Observation of Mars H₂O₂ also represents the first measurement of a key catalytic specie in a planetary atmosphere other than our own.     

Elm bark beetle in Holocene peat deposits and the northwest European elm decline

The elm decline of 5000 ¹⁴C yr ago has been the most widely discussed phenomenon in post‐glacial vegetation history. This pan‐European reduction of elm populations, echoed in the decimation of elmwoods in Europe during the twentieth century, has attracted a series of interrelated hypotheses involving climate change, human activity, disease and soil deterioration. The elm bark beetle (Scolytus scolytus L.) is an essential component of disease explanations. We present evidence for the presence of the beetle over a prolonged period (ca. 7950–4910 yr BP [8800–5660 cal. yr BP]) from a lowland raised mire deposit in northeast Scotland, with its final appearance at this site, and the first and only appearance in another mire of a single scolytid find, around the time of the elm decline. The subfossil S. scolytus finds are not only the first from Scotland, but they also represent the most comprehensive sequence of finds anywhere. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.