Comparison of Theories for the Variance Caused by the Sampling of Random Mixtures of Non-Identical Particles

When sampling a random mixture of non-identical particles, the minimum sample size can be determined once the relationship between the sample size and the variance is known. Many different theories have been proposed to describe this relationship. This article provides a novel and systematic comparison of existing theories based on a set of objective criteria. It is found that none of the existing theories meet all criteria, making further research into the development of a suitable theory necessary.     

Patterns of rock fragment cover generated by tillage erosion

Intensively cultivated areas in the upper part of the Guadalentin catchment (southeast Spain) show a systematic spatial pattern of surface rock fragment cover (R_c). The objective of this paper is to quantify and to explain this spatial rock fragment cover pattern. Therefore, a map of an intensively cultivated area of 5 km² was digitised, and for each pixel total topographic curvature was calculated. Next, rock fragment cover was determined photographically at 35 sites with a range of total slope curvatures. A linear relation between total curvature and rock fragment cover was found, except for narrow concavities. It was hypothesised that this pattern can be explained by a significant net downslope movement of rock fragments and fine earth by tillage. The displacement distances of rock fragments by tillage with a duckfoot chisel were measured by monitoring the displacement of tracers (painted rock fragments and aluminium cubes) on 5 sites having different slopes. The rare of tillage erosion for one tillage pass with a duckfoot chisel, expressed by the diffusion constant (k), equals 282 kg/m for up and downslope tillage and only 139 kg/m for contour tillage. Nomograms indicate that mean denudation rates in almond groves due to tillage erosion (3 to 5 tillage passes per year) can easily amount to 1.5–2.6 mm/year for contour tillage and up to 3.6–5.9 mm/year for up- and downslope tillage for a field, 50 m long and having a slope of 20%. These figures are at least one order of magnitude larger than reported denudation rates caused by water erosion in similar environments. Hence tillage erosion contributes significantly to land degradation. The downslope soil flux induced by tillage not only causes considerable denudation on topographic convexities (hill tops and spurs) and upper field boundaries but also an important sediment accumulation in topographic concavities (hollows and valley bottoms) and at lower field boundaries. Kinetic sieving (i.e. the upward migration of rock fragments) by the tines of the duckfoot chisel also concentrates the largest rock fragments in the topsoil in such a way that a rock fragment mulch develops in narrow valleys and at the foot of the slopes. These results clearly indicate that tillage erosion is the main process responsible for the observed rock fragment cover pattern in the study area. Since the study area is representative for many parts of southern Spain where almond groves have expanded since 1970, the results have a wider application. They show to what extent intensive tillage of steep slopes has contributed to the increase in soil degradation, to changes in hillslope morphology (i.e. strong denudation of convexities, development of lynchets and rapid infilling of narrow valley bottoms) and to the development of rock fragment cover patterns which control the spatial variability of the hydrological and water erosion response within such landscapes.     

Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs

On the basis of the IPCC B2, A1b and B1 baseline scenarios, mitigation scenarios were developed that stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 650, 550 and 450 and – subject to specific assumptions – 400 ppm CO₂-eq. The analysis takes into account a large number of reduction options, such as reductions of non-CO₂ gases, carbon plantations and measures in the energy system. The study shows stabilization as low as 450 ppm CO₂-eq. to be technically feasible, even given relatively high baseline scenarios. To achieve these lower concentration levels, global emissions need to peak within the first two decades. The net present value of abatement costs for the B2 baseline scenario (a medium scenario) increases from 0.2% of cumulative GDP to 1.1% as the shift is made from 650 to 450 ppm. On the other hand, the probability of meeting a two-degree target increases from 0%–10% to 20%–70%. The mitigation scenarios lead to lower emissions of regional air pollutants but also to increased land use. The uncertainty in the cost estimates is at least in the order of 50%, with the most important uncertainties including land-use emissions, the potential for bio-energy and the contribution of energy efficiency. Furthermore, creating the right socio-economic and political conditions for mitigation is more important than any of the technical constraints.     

Spatial patterns of soil water balance on intensively cultivated hillslopes in a semi‐arid environment: the impact of rock fragments and soil thickness

During past decades, a diverse system of subsistence agriculture in south‐east Spain (annual rainfall of less than 300 mm) has been overturned in favour of large‐scale plantations of almond trees without consideration for topography and related spatial patterns in soil hydrological properties. The objective of this paper is to investigate the spatial pattern in soil physical properties induced by this cultivation system, and to highlight its impact on the water balance. Soil properties were recorded along hillslopes with shallow soils developed on slates and greywackes in the upper part of the Guadelentin drainage basin (Murcia region). Frequent tillage of these almond plantations covering entire hillslopes has resulted in denudation by tillage erosion on the topographic convexities, as well as transport of rock fragments and fine earth along the slopes. These processes have created a systematic spatial pattern of soil thickness and rock fragment content: shallow and stony soils on the topographic convexities and deep soils with a rock fragment mulch in the concavities at the foot of the slopes. At the same time, a negative relationship between rock fragment content and fine earth bulk density was observed. The impact of this spatial pattern in soil properties on the water balance was evaluated using the PATTERN one‐dimensional hydrological and plant growth model. The model simulates the water balance of soil profiles covering the observed variation in soil thickness, stoniness and bulk density. The model results indicate that the highest rates of infiltration, evaporation and drainage, as well as the lowest rates of overland flow are restricted to shallow soils on the hilltops. In contrast, the deeper soils in the valley bottoms produce a more stable moisture regime than shallower soils, which tend to saturate and dry out quickly. These model results are in agreement with the spatial patterns of almond productivity: an asymptotic increase with soil thickness. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reindeer Herders Without Reindeer. The Challenges of Joint Knowledge Production on Kolguev Island in the Russian Arctic

Kolguev Island in the Russian Arctic has a unique tundra ecosystem and an indigenous Nenets population whose livelihood is traditionally based on reindeer herding. The Nenets faced a major crisis in 2013–2014 when the reindeer population collapsed. Widely different explanations for this collapse were put forward. This lack of a shared perspective points at the failure of genuine joint knowledge production (JKP) in the island’s UNEP–GEF’s ECORA project (2004–2009). The ECORA project aimed to achieve integrated ecosystem management by stimulating dialog and mutual learning among indigenous people, state agencies, and scientists. This paper analyses the failure of ECORA’s JKP, using a recently developed framework of conditions for successful JKP. The results suggest that ECORA met none of these conditions. It failed at bringing the scientific and indigenous knowledge systems together, and the produced knowledge did not resonate with indigenous people’s perception of living in Kolguev.     

Inter‐population differences in feeding ecology under nitrogen‐limited diets: Field growth and the role of cannibalism in limiting/improving reserve accumulation

Growth is determined by an organism's physiology, physical environment, and biological conditions, including food availability and any intra‐ and inter‐specific interactions that can affect feeding activity. To analyse how all these factors interact to produce final growth in the herbivorous/detritivorous crab Neohelice granulata, we performed field and laboratory experiments with juveniles and adults from three populations which differed genetically as well as in their physical environment and the organic matter (OM) content in the soil that serves as food. We evaluated (a) growth in the field: Juveniles of the three populations were cross‐transplanted in exclusion cages; (b) effect of the presence of adults on juvenile feeding: We measured the feeding activity of small juveniles in presence/absence of an adult male as potential predator in the field; and (c) effect of diet on cannibalism: We analysed the cannibalistic behavior of adult males from two of the populations in the laboratory after they had received protein‐rich (24%) and protein‐poor (3%) diets. In experiment (a), final size was similar for the crabs from all three origins but growth differed between sites. Experiment (b) showed that the presence of adults interfered with feeding activity at the two sites with lower weight indicators. In experiment (c), we observed that low protein diet increased the cannibalistic behavior of adult males, and this effect was more intense in crabs from the poorest food site. Our results contribute to understanding the set of factors and interactions involved in the response of individuals to the prevailing conditions in natural environments in order to maintain a growth rate, perhaps at the expense of different reserve accumulation. They also enable discussion of the limitations of approaches used in laboratory experiments.     

碳酸岩的地质地球化学特征及其大地构造意义

从已知碳酸岩的地质产状、岩石学特征、Nd-Sr-Pb-O-C同位素及痕量元素地球化学特征数据,结合高温高压实验岩石学资料,论述了其地幔源区的物质成分、交代过程软流圈地幔部分熔融机制和碳酸岩岩浆的演化模型。碳酸岩既可以产生于拉张岩石圈构造背景,也能够产生于挤压而派生的引张岩石圈构造背景。前者以产于裂谷环境、与硅酸不饱和过碱性岩构成环状碳酸岩—碱性杂岩为特征,主要由起源于软流圈地幔的霞石质超基性—基性岩浆经液态不混溶作用而形成;后者产于碰撞造山过程中派生的引张岩石圈断裂带,以单一的透镜状、条带状和似层状碳酸岩体为标志,直接由导源岩石圈富集地幔的低程度部分熔融作用而产生的碳酸岩浆侵入或喷发所形成。     

A rare earth element-rich carbonatite dyke at Bayan Obo, Inner Mongolia, North China

Summary ?A carbonatite dyke, extremely enriched in rare earth elements (REE), is reported from Bayan Obo, Inner Mongolia, North China. The REE content in the dyke varies from 1 wt% to up to 20 wt%. The light REEs are enriched and highly fractionated relative to the heavy REEs, and there is no Eu anomaly. Although carbon isotope δ¹³C (PDB) values of the carbonatites (−7.3 to −4.7‰) are within the range of normal mantle (−5±2‰), oxygen isotope δ¹⁸O (SMOW) (11.9 to 17.7‰) ratios apparently are higher than those of the mantle (5.7±1.0‰), indicating varying degrees of exchange with hydrothermal fluids during or after magmatic crystallization. The carbonatite is the result of partial melting followed by fractional crystallization. Primary carbonatite melt was formed by less than 1% partial melting of enriched mantle, leaving a garnet-bearing residue. The melt then rose to a crustal magma chamber and underwent fractional crystallization, producing further REE enrichment. The REE and trace element distribution patterns of the carbonatites are similar to those of fine-grained dolomite marble, the ore-host rock of the Bayan Obo REE–Nb–Fe giant mineral deposit. This fact may indicate a petrogenetic link between the dykes described here and the Bayan Obo mineral deposit. Received November 1, 2001; revised version accepted June 16, 2002     

Coupling biophysical and micro-economic models to assess the effect of mitigation measures on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

Agricultural soils are a major source of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N₂O), a potent greenhouse gas (GHG). Because N₂O emissions strongly depend on soil type, climate, and crop management, their inventory requires the combination of biophysical and economic modeling, to simulate farmers’ behavior. Here, we coupled a biophysical soil-crop model, CERES-EGC, with an economic farm type supply model, AROPAj, at the regional scale in northern France. Response curves of N₂O emissions to fertilizer nitrogen (Nf) inputs were generated with CERES-EGC, and linearized to obtain emission factors. The latter ranged from 0.001 to 0.0225 kg N₂O-N kg^???1 Nf, depending on soil and crop type, compared to the fixed 0.0125 value of the IPCC guidelines. The modeled emission factors were fed into the economic model AROPAj which relates farm-level GHG emissions to production factors. This resulted in a N₂O efflux 20% lower than with the default IPCC method. The costs of abating GHG emissions from agriculture were calculated using a first-best tax on GHG emissions, and a second-best tax on their presumed factors (livestock size and fertilizer inputs). The first-best taxation was relatively efficient, achieving an 8% reduction with a tax of 11 €/ t-CO₂-equivalent, compared to 68 €/t-CO₂ eq for the same target with the second-best scheme.