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排序方式: 共有107条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
11.
Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Bas J. van Ruijven Marc A. Levy Arun Agrawal Frank Biermann Joern Birkmann Timothy R. Carter Kristie L. Ebi Matthias Garschagen Bryan Jones Roger Jones Eric Kemp-Benedict Marcel Kok Kasper Kok Maria Carmen Lemos Paul L. Lucas Ben Orlove Shonali Pachauri Tom M. Parris Anand Patwardhan Arthur Petersen Benjamin L. Preston Jesse Ribot Dale S. Rothman Vanessa J. Schweizer 《Climatic change》2014,122(3):481-494
This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance. 相似文献
12.
Frido Welker Elza Duijm Kristiaan J. van der Gaag Bas van Geel Peter de Knijff Jacqueline van Leeuwen Dick Mol Johannes van der Plicht Niels Raes Jelle Reumer Barbara Gravendeel 《Quaternary Research》2014
Humans colonized the Balearic Islands 5–4 ka ago. They arrived in a uniquely adapted ecosystem with the Balearic mountain goat Myotragus balearicus (Bovidae, Antilopinae, Caprini) as the only large mammal. This mammal went extinct rapidly after human arrival. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the extinction of M. balearicus. For the present study ancient DNA analysis (Sanger sequencing, Roche-454, Ion Torrent), and pollen and macrofossil analyses were performed on preserved coprolites from M. balearicus, providing information on its diet and paleo-environment. The information retrieved shows that M. balearicus was heavily dependent on the Balearic box species Buxus balearica during at least part of the year, and that it was most probably a browser. Hindcast ecological niche modelling of B. balearica shows that local distribution of this plant species was affected by climate changes. This suggests that the extinction of M. balearicus can be related to the decline and regional extinction of a plant species that formed a major component of its diet. The vegetation change is thought to be caused by increased aridity occurring throughout the Mediterranean. Previous hypotheses relating the extinction of M. balearicus directly to the arrival of humans on the islands must therefore be adjusted. 相似文献
13.
Bas van Geel R. Dale Guthrie Jens G. Altmann Peter Broekens Ian D. Bull Fiona L. Gill Boris Jansen Aline M. Nieman Barbara Gravendeel 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(17-18):2289-2303
Dung from a mammoth was preserved under frozen conditions in Alaska. The mammoth lived during the early part of the Late Glacial interstadial (ca 12,300 BP). Microfossils, macroremains and ancient DNA from the dung were studied and the chemical composition was determined to reconstruct both the paleoenvironment and paleobiology of this mammoth. Pollen spectra are dominated by Poaceae, Artemisia and other light-demanding taxa, indicating an open, treeless landscape (‘mammoth steppe’). Fruits and seeds support this conclusion. The dung consists mainly of cyperaceous stems and leaves, with a minor component of vegetative remains of Poaceae. Analyses of fragments of the plastid rbcL gene and trnL intron and nrITS1 region, amplified from DNA extracted from the dung, supplemented the microscopic identifications. Many fruit bodies with ascospores of the coprophilous fungus Podospora conica were found inside the dung ball, indicating that the mammoth had eaten dung. The absence of bile acids points to mammoth dung. This is the second time that evidence for coprophagy of mammoths has been derived from the presence of fruit bodies of coprophilous fungi in frozen dung. Coprophagy might well have been a common habit of mammoths. Therefore, we strongly recommend that particular attention should be given to fungal remains in future fossil dung studies. 相似文献
14.
15.
M. J. Le Bas M. A. O. Ba-bttat R. N. Taylor J. A. Milton B. F. Windley P. M. Evins 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2004,82(1-2):105-135
Summary Dykes of carbonate rocks, that cut gneisses in the Lowder-Mudiah area of southern Yemen, consist of dolomite and/or calcite with or without apatite, barite and monazite. Petrographic observations, mineralogical, XRF and ICP-MS analyses reveal that some of the carbonate rocks are derived from sedimentary protoliths, whereas others are magmatic calcio- and magnesio-carbonatites some of which are mineralized with barite-monazite. The interbanded occurrence and apparent contemporary emplacement of these different rock types within individual dykes, backed by Sr–Nd isotope evidence, are interpreted to show that intrusion of mantle-derived carbonatite magma was accompanied by mobilization of crustal marbles. That took place some 840Ma ago but the REE-mineralization is dated at ca. 400Ma.Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00710-004-0056-2 相似文献
16.
Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect
of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based
on the statistical relationship between bed nights and a climate-related index of human comfort, after accounting for other
determinants of bed nights such as income and prices. It is concluded that climate change could have significant impacts on
the regional distribution of the physical resources supporting tourism in Europe. For example, in summer, Southern Europe
could experience climate conditions that are less favourable to tourism than the current climate, while countries in the North
could enjoy better conditions. The economic effects of these changes are likely to be sizeable, albeit difficult to assess.
Crucially, they are shown to depend on tourists’ temporal flexibility with respect to holiday planning. The greater the prominence
of institutional rigidities such as school holidays, the larger the differences between winning and losing regions in terms
of economic impact. 相似文献
17.
Climate benefits of changing diet 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
Elke Stehfest Lex Bouwman Detlef P. van Vuuren Michel G. J. den Elzen Bas Eickhout Pavel Kabat 《Climatic change》2009,95(1-2):83-102
Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO2-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies. 相似文献
18.
Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one-dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two-dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set-up in HEC-RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 103 floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high-resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo-DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non-exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m3/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management. 相似文献
19.
New age constraints on the western Betic intramontane basins: A late Tortonian closure of the Guadalhorce Corridor?
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Marlies van der Schee Bas C. J. van den Berg Walter Capella Dirk Simon Francisco J. Sierro Wout Krijgsman 《地学学报》2018,30(5):325-332
Several gateways connected the Mediterranean with the Atlantic during the late Miocene but the timing of closure and therefore their role prior to and during the Messinian Salinity Crisis (5.97–5.33 Ma) is still under debate. The timing of closure of the Guadalhorce Corridor is especially disputed as the common lack of marine microfossils hampers precise age determination. Here we present new biostratigraphic age constraints on the sediments of the Ronda, Antequera and Arcos regions, which formed the northern part of the Guadalhorce Corridor. The general presence of Globorotalia menardii 4 in the youngest deep‐marine sediments of all three regions indicates a late Tortonian age, older than 7.51 Ma. We conclude that the Guadalhorce Corridor closed during the late Tortonian, well before the onset of the Messinian Salinity Crisis and that the late Tortonian tectonic uplift of the eastern Betics extended into the western Betics. 相似文献
20.
Harm Bartholomeus Lammert Kooistra Antoine Stevens Martin van Leeuwen Bas van Wesemael Eyal Ben-Dor Bernard Tychon 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2011
Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) is one of the key soil properties, but the large spatial variation makes continuous mapping a complex task. Imaging spectroscopy has proven to be an useful technique for mapping of soil properties, but the applicability decreases rapidly when fields are partially covered with vegetation. In this paper we show that with only a few percent fractional maize cover the accuracy of a Partial Least Square Regression (PLSR) based SOC prediction model drops dramatically. However, this problem can be solved with the use of spectral unmixing techniques. First, the fractional maize cover is determined with linear spectral unmixing, taking the illumination and observation angles into account. In a next step the influence of maize is filtered out from the spectral signal by a new procedure termed Residual Spectral Unmixing (RSU). The residual soil spectra resulting from this procedure are used for mapping of SOC using PLSR, which could be done with accuracies comparable to studies performed on bare soil surfaces (Root Mean Standard Error of Calibration = 1.34 g/kg and Root Mean Standard Error of Prediction = 1.65 g/kg). With the presented RSU approach it is possible to filter out the influence of maize from the mixed spectra, and the residual soil spectra contain enough information for mapping of the SOC distribution within agricultural fields. This can improve the applicability of airborne imaging spectroscopy for soil studies in temperate climates, since the use of the RSU approach can extend the flight-window which is often constrained by the presence of vegetation. 相似文献